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Posted: Thu, 19 Jun 2008, 12:24am Post subject: Final Four in a 12500- Strategy Question
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Two Pair
Joined: 12 Jun 2008
Posts: 44
WPP: 116
Location: Florida
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ok, what should I have done here:
4 players left...
UTG+1- 100k
UTG - (Big Bully stack who has had it the whole final table who has the seat to my direct left, impossible to steal from  ) anywayy.. -650k
SB-110k
BB-(HERO) 130k
4th place- 1000
3rd place-1300
2nd place- 2000
1st place-2800
Edit... Sorry blinds 8000/16000
Big stack open shoves all in and its folded around to me who looks at A10 of clubs... i elect to fold and hope i can try to wait it out.... (hes been aggressive but hadnt open shoved yet) well i dont get a face card forever and eventually have to shove in and bust in 4th.... so it got me to thinking if i should have called him there. Thoughts? |
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Posted: Thu, 19 Jun 2008, 4:30pm Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 04 Jul 2007
Posts: 184
WPP: 118
Location: California
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OK, on a whim, I gave this one a shot with an ICM calculator and here's what I've got (hope someone can verify - Taipan, where are you?):
Fold and your equity toward remaining prize money is 0.2195
Call and win - equity is 0.2686
Call and lose - equity is 0.14 (4th place for $1000)
Based on these numbers, you need at least 62% equity with your ATs. This is a call if he's pushing ~57% of his range here. So this is a good fold assuming he's not pushing that wide and doesn't sound like it. If I were him, I'd be opening up my push range but 57% seems excessive for all but stone-cold maniacs. |
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Posted: Thu, 19 Jun 2008, 5:48pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Posts: 400
WPP: 94
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i think its a good fold. your best case scenario is a coinflip. he's shoving with a hand he doesn't want to make a decision with if he standard raises and gets shoved by someone else. so maybe 66-TT, AJ, AQ, KQ., and possibly JJ.
or if he's been super maniac aggro... then he could be shoving with AK and QQ+ hoping one of you will take a stand with something he has dominated.
either way its a pretty retarded play. if he loses a coin flip with 99 vs AQ he's still got double the stack of 2nd place. |
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Posted: Thu, 19 Jun 2008, 6:48pm Post subject:
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Two Pair
Joined: 12 Jun 2008
Posts: 44
WPP: 116
Location: Florida
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| Thanks guys... I was confused because of how mush more the big stack had than us and the proper way to go about it... That makes sense..Thanks for the posts. |
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