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Posted: Fri, 18 Mar 2005, 10:55pm Post subject: Flush Odds |
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Two Pair
Joined: 10 Jan 2005
Posts: 37
WPP: 56
Location: Austin, TX
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| Anyone know the odds of flopping a flush? |
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Posted: Fri, 18 Mar 2005, 11:10pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 1461
WPP: 122
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
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| my spider senses are telling me its like 1%. |
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Posted: Fri, 18 Mar 2005, 11:57pm Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 10 Jan 2005
Posts: 37
WPP: 56
Location: Austin, TX
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 12:07am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 3307
WPP: 154
Location: Ellicott City, MD
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Assuming you hold two suited cards?
It's low enough not to factor the odds.
11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = 0.0085 = 0.85% |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 12:10am Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 17 Dec 2004
Posts: 260
WPP: 120
Location: Sweden
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| JeffreyGB wrote: | Assuming you hold two suited cards?
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LOL! Otherwise it will be hard!  |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 12:14am Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 10 Jan 2005
Posts: 37
WPP: 56
Location: Austin, TX
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 8:57am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 09 Mar 2005
Posts: 622
WPP: 103
Location: Brighton, UK
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| ur suited hole cards flop a flush only 1 in 120 times |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 12:16pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Dec 2004
Posts: 1296
WPP: 54
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| ya, what are the odds in flopping a straight flush, I did it once |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 12:27pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2492
WPP: 93
Location: Arlington, VA
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| It's not likely. The exact probability isn't very interesting or even useful. |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 12:40pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Posts: 119
WPP: 62
Location: chicago
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ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right... |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 1:35pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 1461
WPP: 122
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
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| odds of flopping a straight flush... that's tough. just looked it up, its 4899 to 1 if you're holding 98s, so .02%. someone on here might know how to figure it but not me. |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 2:02pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2492
WPP: 93
Location: Arlington, VA
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| thestrokes wrote: | ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right... |
What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48. |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:20pm Post subject: |
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 92
WPP: 31
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| ive flopped a straight flush once too. had 97 hearts flop came 6 8 10 of hearts, it was nice. |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:23pm Post subject: |
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LAME HUMOR THAT MAKES FISH LAUGH
Joined: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 7456
WPP: 65
Location: This room is a good place to be
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| mimmons775 wrote: | | ive flopped a straight flush once too. had 97 hearts flop came 6 8 10 of hearts, it was nice. |
You.. mean you flopped a straight flush?
-'rilla |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:26pm Post subject: |
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 92
WPP: 31
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:28pm Post subject: |
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High Card
Joined: 12 Mar 2005
Posts: 10
WPP: 74
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| Thanks dsax I've been wondering that. |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:33pm Post subject: |
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LAME HUMOR THAT MAKES FISH LAUGH
Joined: 28 Sep 2004
Posts: 7456
WPP: 65
Location: This room is a good place to be
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| mimmons775 wrote: | | yeah thats what i said |
May bad, I read it as a "flush and a straight."
I'm having trouble reading stuff recently. My eyes are gone!
-'rilla |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:37pm Post subject: |
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 92
WPP: 31
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| its ok, you might wanna get that checked out haha |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 3:54pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 3307
WPP: 154
Location: Ellicott City, MD
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| dsaxton wrote: | | thestrokes wrote: | ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right... |
What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48. |
Those numbers do make sense. He was working out the probability of flopping a straight flush, not just a flush. Why it worked out to be higher than the percent someone listed, I don't know (except that perhaps someone didn't figure things right when coming up with that ratio).
- Jeffrey |
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Posted: Sat, 19 Mar 2005, 4:09pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2492
WPP: 93
Location: Arlington, VA
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| JeffreyGB wrote: | | dsaxton wrote: | | thestrokes wrote: | ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right... |
What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48. |
Those numbers do make sense. He was working out the probability of flopping a straight flush, not just a flush. Why it worked out to be higher than the percent someone listed, I don't know (except that perhaps someone didn't figure things right when coming up with that ratio).
- Jeffrey |
Actually, the numbers still make no sense. In order to find the probability of flopping a straight flush, you need to know how closely connected your cards are, and also their rank. This would tell you how many sets of 3 connected and suited cards will give you a straight flush, and then you have to find how many different ways each of these sets of 3 cards can flop. It's not as simple as just multiplying three numbers together and getting the answer. |
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Posted: Thu, 24 Mar 2005, 11:16pm Post subject: |
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High Card
Joined: 24 Mar 2005
Posts: 8
WPP: 157
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The biggest freak accident hand I've been involved in is when I had 45 hearts, flop came 678 hearts, flopped a straight flush! But someone else had the 9 and 10. I lost my stack.
I've also flopped a royal flush, but that was playing limit Omaha, so the odds are better. Everyone folded (probably should not have bet) so I didn't even get to show it down. Hey, at least I didn't lose. |
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Posted: Fri, 25 Mar 2005, 8:40am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 09 Mar 2005
Posts: 622
WPP: 103
Location: Brighton, UK
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| fluffysnurgle wrote: | | The biggest freak accident hand I've been involved in is when I had 45 hearts, flop came 678 hearts, flopped a straight flush! But someone else had the 9 and 10. I lost my stack. |
Thats harsh! Ive lost a flush to straight flush before in a live game. I've played so much poker online for a year yet the only time ive seen a royal flush was when my girlfriend got one, and she hardly plays. |
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Posted: Thu, 31 Mar 2005, 11:17am Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 31 Mar 2005
Posts: 452
WPP: 120
Location: Love me for a season
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| I folded 76s pre flop in a casino tournament to see, in numerical order, 8 9 10s come down. It was like it was taunting me by making itself unmissable. |
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Posted: Thu, 31 Mar 2005, 1:54pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 20 Jan 2005
Posts: 178
WPP: 407
Location: Canada eh?
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The 4899:1 odds are correct. Here is why.
I'm only calculating the probability of flopping a straight flush with suited connectors with at least 3 cards on both sides that can be used. (ie, JQ will not work since you only have AK above that). To do this, you need to consider all straight flushes possible. For 98s, these cards must be considered:
       
Looking at the diagram above, you can see that we can make 4 different straight flushes here. Let's narrow down to a single straight flush, say:
The odds of flopping this flush if you hold the 8 and 9 is:
Odds = 3/50*2/49*1/48 = 1/14700 = 0.0068%
(incidently, this is the odds of flopping a royal flush if you hold 2 suited cards T or higher)
Explained quickly, there are 3 cards that can come up on the first flopped card, 2 on the second, and one on the third. Now, going back to before... since there are 4 different straight flushes we can get with 98s, the odds of flopping a flush are the above multiplied by 4. This is:
Odds = 4(3/50*2/49*1/48) = 1/4900 = 0.02%
Good to know that after 4900 hands you might flop a straight flush. Sucks that you probably got it in EP and folded it.
Darkwing |
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Posted: Thu, 31 Mar 2005, 2:11pm Post subject: |
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