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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 1:42pm Post subject: Dump the Set? |
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Two Pair
Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Posts: 42
WPP: 124
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I hadn't played much poker the last 18 months but I played this week in Vegas; we were in town for a rafting trip and so I only had a few hours total in the casinos. I played 1-2 and 1-3 NL at MGM and Caesar's Palace and at the end was up $5 for the trip. I would have walked away with some money but for this hand which cost me around $240. I felt at the time it was avoidable but would like some second opinions.
This was at Caesar's 1-3 which has a max buy-in of $500 but nearly everyone was buying in at $300 which I also did. I played less than hour before this hand come up, but I had a read on the button as being a pretty solid TA player and I hadn't seen him mess around at all. I get 66 in EP and limp, a MP player limps, button limps, SB limps and BB raises to 12; all of us call. The button makes a comment along the lines of "well with this many callers I may as well call".
Flop is 6,7, 8 with two clubs. I bet 35, button raises to $85 and the other players fold. I really didn't even want to call the $50 - I just felt it was very likely he'd hit a straight since he could easily have been limping pre-flop with any low suited connector. But I make the call; turn is a blank I check and he puts me all in. I wasted a lot of time here; I was pretty sure I was beat but talked myself into calling and of course he turns over the straight (45 os).
My problem with the call is there is nothing he could have had that I could beat except a stone bluff or maybe two-pair trying to push me off a draw. It didn't seem that likely but it was enough to make me put in another $160. Mostly I just couldn't let the trips go. The other thing that haunted me is maybe I should have pushed all in after his re-raise. He probably could not have dumped the sucker straight but he did admit after that he was concerned about it. Either way I think that would have been a better way to play the hand if I couldn't lay it down. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 1:56pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1294
WPP: 104
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
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| this is a standard stack off on the flop. now stop thinking about this hand |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 3:53pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17621
WPP: 82
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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Yeah, re-raise the flop All-in please. Pot is almost too big to think about a laydown.
That said, if you think he's got you on a flop, just go ahead and dump to the raise, but I would need a really compelling case.
What sort of hands is the button over-limping? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 5:32pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 1395
WPP: 142
Location: GA
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Sets are hands I'm almost 100% willing to stack off with 100% of the time. Here are some reasons why.
1. Set under set happens on the flop about 1 in 100 times you flop a set. Gotta pay it off - but no big deal, doesn't happen a lot.
2. Against made flushes on the TURN, Hero ALWAYS has 10 outs - if any of the 3 other cards on the boards pairs the river card, Hero has full house. If the case card hits, he has quads, and both beat flushes and straight.
3. People play big overpairs, TPTK and 2 pair fast and hard on the flop, and they're way behind. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 5:51pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17621
WPP: 82
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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| Robb wrote: | | 1. Set under set happens on the flop about 1 in 100 times you flop a set. Gotta pay it off - but no big deal, doesn't happen a lot. |
This is a horrible misapplication of math. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 6:03pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 1395
WPP: 142
Location: GA
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| Fnord wrote: | | Robb wrote: | | 1. Set under set happens on the flop about 1 in 100 times you flop a set. Gotta pay it off - but no big deal, doesn't happen a lot. |
This is a horrible misapplication of math. |
Explain? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 6:21pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17621
WPP: 82
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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| Robb wrote: | | Fnord wrote: | | Robb wrote: | | 1. Set under set happens on the flop about 1 in 100 times you flop a set. Gotta pay it off - but no big deal, doesn't happen a lot. |
This is a horrible misapplication of math. |
Explain? |
You need to consider the chance any non-nut hand is good given the union of various events. You don't just get all your money against random hands, particularly when there is a lot of money behind. He's going to play a certain range of hands given the pre-flop action. Then give a certain amount of action with certain hands and further define his hand in the mannor by which he gives action. Then consider how often he bluffs. In live poker you can throw in physical tells. Then consider game flow and timing for both live and online.
Throw all that into your thought process and it's quite possible to get a result that bottom set is no good. Not common, but I think it's bad to focus so much on just your hand. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 7:21pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 1395
WPP: 142
Location: GA
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| Fnord wrote: | | I think it's bad to focus so much on just your hand. |
+1 on the no-level thinking.
My point - which I didn't state well, admittedly - was that noobies who post HH's on FTR often seem to start seeing monsters under the bed like a 6 year old child when the board gets scary. Here's a hand I had to think about for a while. Villain is 86/6/1 over 70 hands, so he COULD have any two, here, and a random 2 or 7 did seem likely. But he had made big bets on TPWK and 2 pair hands recently (I folded, others called him down). He wasn't weak-tight (like AF ~ 1 would indicated), pretty agro when he actually had a hand. I felt I was ahead of his range, in spite of scary board. We noobies can't forget about his whole range just because a couple cards are scary.
Be interested in your thoughts on this hand, fnord. Since you read souls.
$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
Hero ($13.62)
CO ($4.71)
BTN ($12.24)
SB ($9.24)
BB ($6.54)
Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is UTG  
Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.35, 1 fold, BB calls $0.25
Flop:    ($1.10, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, BTN calls $1.10, BB folds
Turn:  ($3.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, BTN raises to $8.55, Hero calls $6.80 |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 7:25pm Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Posts: 42
WPP: 124
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| I'd probably only seen him show down one or two hands and I don't remember now if he'd limped with them so I really didn't have that much to go on. I just had a sense of him as being a pretty solid player more for the hands he didn't play, played moderately or got out of than for the ones he'd showed down if that makes any sense. There were a couple really laggy players he could have played back at more than once and didn't; and my table image was tight so it seemed much more reasonable to put him on the straight than two pair or a bluff. So that was my read but ultimately I didn't trust it partly because I think getting in the habit of tossing your set when it "feels bad" is long-term an unprofitable road to travel down. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 7:35pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17621
WPP: 82
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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| Robb wrote: | | Villain is 86/6/1 over 70 hands, so he COULD have any two, here, and a random 2 or 7 did seem likely. But he had made big bets on TPWK and 2 pair hands recently (I folded, others called him down). |
Pay the man his monies. I'd bet more on the turn because I'm not folding anyway. I may or may not bet the flop. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Jun 2008, 10:39pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1294
WPP: 104
Location: Santa Cruz, CA
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how can you possibly not bet the flop
we want to stack here |
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