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Posted: Thu, 29 May 2008, 8:48am Post subject: Are these bets too thin? |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2519
WPP: 92
Location: Arlington, VA
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Villain is unknown. Too thin?
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q , Q .
3 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls.
Flop: (7 SB) 2, 5 , 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.
Turn: (7.50 BB) A (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.
River: (9.50 BB) K (2 players)
Hero bets |
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Posted: Thu, 29 May 2008, 8:55am Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 05 Jul 2007
Posts: 529
WPP: 93
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Posted: Thu, 29 May 2008, 9:02am Post subject: Re: Are these bets too thin? |
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Full House
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 711
WPP: 134
Location: UK
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When he caps the flop I put him on a set, 99+, AK, or a FD, maybe AJ/AQ.
With that in mind, I don't really understand the turn lead since you are going to get raised by his Ace hands and probably have to call down because the pot is so big. He might fold KK but I doubt it.
The river lead when the second overcard comes and the FD completes is really spew. What is your plan if he raises? I think c/f is better as played. There's really no value in betting here since a worse hand will never call. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 May 2008, 9:23am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2519
WPP: 92
Location: Arlington, VA
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| The only hands I'm worried about containing an ace are the ace high flush draw and perhaps A-8 since he's not capping the flop with just ace high. If that's what he's holding, he'll probably raise my turn bet and I have an easy fold. Otherwise, he'll just take a free card, which I don't want him to do. By betting, I deny him a free card with his worse hands, and make a correct fold on the turn when beat and avoid paying him off for another bet on the river. When he just calls the turn, I'm fairly sure he has a pair below queens that he played fast on the flop or a flush draw other than the ace high flush draw. Obviously the river is a bad card for me, but I decided to bet anyways to get an extra bet from his worse hands, intending on folding to a raise. Check-folding seems way too weak in this pot, but I can maybe see check-calling. I guess my question was mainly about the river. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 May 2008, 9:55am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 711
WPP: 134
Location: UK
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I can't see a worse hand ever calling this river, so it's not a value-bet it's a "make them fold a worse hand or raise when I'm behind bet" imho.
Regarding c/c vs. c/f, we can debate this but my thinking is when is the last time you saw someone at 2/4 bet third pair in this situation when it was checked to them? I just don't see it happen enough to make c/c correct.
Also if you check they might check behind a scared better hand and you save a bet. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 May 2008, 10:23am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2519
WPP: 92
Location: Arlington, VA
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| You're probably right about the river. |
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