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I really hate my play here, need advice on dealing with odds

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Knytestorme
Post Posted: Sat, 29 Mar 2008, 4:22pm    Post subject: I really hate my play here, need advice on dealing with odds Reply with quote
Flush
Flush

Joined: 05 May 2005
Posts: 446
WPP: 250
Location: Australia
Firstly, apologies for the hand history....seems the convertor still has issues with output from Poker Office.

The issue I ran into here was that on each street I had the odds telling me that I had the right price to call given the draws, eg the backdoor flush and gutshot draws on the flop, then the gutshot + flush draw on the turn. I felt the entire play was bad but from the time the second bet was put in preflop with the number of callers I couldn't see a way to let it go as my draws kept improving.

I know the consensus will probably be to lay it down pre, but going past that was there any point that looks plausible to let it go, or is it a case of once we're at that point we just follow the numbers?

PokerStars Game #16339044300: Holdem Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/03/29 - 14:28:31 (ET)
Table Gutemberga 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: vigtc ($10.75 in chips)
Seat 2: fmo01 ($31.35 in chips)
Seat 3: hada1334 ($28.45 in chips)
Seat 4: johndoo65 ($21.25 in chips)
Seat 5: ioannists ($9.80 in chips)
Seat 6: KnyteStorme ($39.20 in chips)
fmo01: posts small blind $0.25
hada1334: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KnyteStorme [Qh Th]
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
vigtc: calls $0.50
fmo01: raises $0.50 to $1
hada1334: calls $0.50
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
vigtc: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [9d 6h Ks]
fmo01: bets $0.50
hada1334: calls $0.50
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
vigtc: raises $0.50 to $1
fmo01: raises $0.50 to $1.50
hada1334: folds
johndoo65: calls $1
ioannists: calls $1
KnyteStorme: calls $1
vigtc: raises $0.50 to $2
Betting is capped
fmo01: calls $0.50
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [9d 6h Ks] [5h]
fmo01: bets $1
johndoo65: folds
ioannists: folds
KnyteStorme: calls $1
vigtc: raises $1 to $2
fmo01: raises $1 to $3
KnyteStorme: raises $1 to $4
Betting is capped
vigtc: calls $2
fmo01: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [9d 6h Ks 5h] [Jh]
fmo01: checks
KnyteStorme: bets $1
vigtc: calls $1
fmo01: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
KnyteStorme: shows [Qh Th] (a flush, Queen high)
vigtc: mucks hand
fmo01: mucks hand
KnyteStorme collected $31 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.50 | Rake $0.50
Board [9d 6h Ks 5h Jh]
Seat 1: vigtc (button) mucked [9c Kc]
Seat 2: fmo01 (small blind) mucked [Ah Ac]
Seat 3: hada1334 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: johndoo65 folded on the Turn
Seat 5: ioannists folded on the Turn
Seat 6: KnyteStorme showed [Qh Th] and won ($31) with a flush, Queen high
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DrivingDog
Post Posted: Sat, 29 Mar 2008, 4:50pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Flush

Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 544
WPP: 138
Location: UK
Preflop is fine. You're only calling one extra bet getting 10:1.

On the flop you call two cold getting 12:1 odds on your money. You have 4 outs to a straight + backdoor flush so maybe 5 outs total or 10-11% equity. So no problem there.

It's the turn where I think you made a mistake. I think you should be calling along, not raising here. You have two opponents, neither of whom is going to fold based on their play so far. They're certainly not BOTH going to fold. So you have to hit your hand to win. You have 12 outs to a straight or flush, or about 25% equity. You're putting in 33% of the bets that go in on the turn of which your share of the pot is 25%. In other words you're donating 33 - 25 = 8% of every bet you put in on the turn to your opponents.

Calling turn bets and raises would be correct because the pot is so big. Raising only makes sense if you have an equity edge - e.g., > 50% vs. one opponent or > 33% vs. two opponents, etc., or if there's a chance you can win without a showdown.

Also by jamming the turn you pretty much destroy your implied odds. Had you just called along quietly on the turn you might have gotten in a c/r on the river. By jamming the turn, you scare your opponents so much they probably wouldn't bet anything less than a set if you checked the river to them.
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Knytestorme
Post Posted: Sat, 29 Mar 2008, 4:59pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Joined: 05 May 2005
Posts: 446
WPP: 250
Location: Australia
Thanks or the quick reply Dog.

In regards to the turn raise, I'd say you're right there but my thinking was that given the action to then if I just called the 3-bet when it got to me I'd be seeing it capped after me so I may as well cap it myself. Given the maths there though (though I'll have to go back over when I'm awake hehehe...6 hour session so far, but up $250 on my return to the game), it seems calling the 2 bets and then waiting to see if it was capped behind me would be the right play since my equity investment would be lower if it were capped after I'd invested as opposed to me being the one to put the 4-bet in, correct?
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KoRnholio
Post Posted: Sat, 29 Mar 2008, 5:30pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Joined: 03 Jul 2005
Posts: 1418
WPP: 80

Capping the turn is bad. You have good, but not great, equity in the hand. You don't want to potentially push someone else out of the pot by capping, since they could help pay you off on the river if you hit.
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DrivingDog
Post Posted: Sun, 30 Mar 2008, 3:58am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 544
WPP: 138
Location: UK
Knytestorme wrote:
Thanks or the quick reply Dog.

In regards to the turn raise, I'd say you're right there but my thinking was that given the action to then if I just called the 3-bet when it got to me I'd be seeing it capped after me so I may as well cap it myself. Given the maths there though (though I'll have to go back over when I'm awake hehehe...6 hour session so far, but up $250 on my return to the game), it seems calling the 2 bets and then waiting to see if it was capped behind me would be the right play since my equity investment would be lower if it were capped after I'd invested as opposed to me being the one to put the 4-bet in, correct?


You're equity investment is how many bets go in the pot, regardless of who bets and raises. Since you're clearly behind on the turn, you want to invest the least amount possible to see the river. You do that by checking and calling, not betting and raising.

For all you know, had you checked the turn, it would have got bet and raised behind you (and you would call two cold getting 7.5:1), and it might not get raised again. So you might have had to only invest two bets instead of four to see the river.
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iopq
Post Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 8:59pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 1192
WPP: 56

The mistake that I sometimes make is that I'm willing to commit x bets on this street, so sometimes I put those bets in myself when I shouldn't. But I would have rather not put those bets in in the first place. So I should call in that situation.

This is the same thing. While it might have gotten capped anyway, why not see if it's not capped? You have nothing to lose by just calling.
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