Betting Baseball - Method I use has worked in the past.

My betting agreement with my Las Vegas client does not include betting on baseball so he says I am free to post my thoughts on betting on baseball. In this thread I will go over the details on how I bet on baseball with full details on the method I have used in the past. It is a method / strategy that has generated me solid profits in the past. I will prepare it on a word file and post it on this thread about a week before the MLB season starts. I will be setting aside a $10,000 bankroll to accomodate my bets for this betting strategy. Check back in near the end of March. Later, HockeyBoy.

The system / method I use to bet on baseball is a strategy that involves betting against the best high profile teams when they are the favorite and betting with them when they are the underdog. The amount of the bet depends on the odds as well as previous bets made against / for that team. Once you have established your starting bet size this system is relatively easy to follow. I have set aside $10,000 for this system and my betting size begins at 1% of my total bankroll. Thus my starting bet size will be $100.

The teams I have chosen to bet against / for using this system are: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets. Generally speaking, because these teams are quality high profile teams that the public tends to bet on more heavily than other teams, the odds we will be offered when picking underdogs against them will be a little more favorable than usual.

On the first day of the regular season I will be looking at the lines offered on these teams and their opponents and then bet accordingly. I will be using the following sportsbooks: Pinnacle, Carib and Matchbook. I will look at all three sportsbooks and make a bet at whichever site offers me the best odds on the team I am selecting. In cases when two of these teams play against each other, there is a slight alteration to this system. I will go over that alteration once it actually happens when the regular season starts.

For the first game that each of these teams play I will bet $100 against / with them depending on which team is the underdog as long as the underdog is +101 to +149. If the underdog is +150 to +199 I bet $10 less ($90). If the underdog is +200 to +249 I bet $20 less ($80). If the underdog is +250 to +299 I bet $30 less ($70). If the underdog is +300 to +399 I bet $40 less ($60). If the underdog is +400 or more I bet $50 less ($50)

As an example if on the first day of the regular season you had the following lines:

Boston –150 / Opponent +140 (You bet $100 on opponent)
NY Yankees –170 / Opponent +160 (You bet $90 on opponent)
NY Mets –220 / Opponent +200 (You bet $80 on opponent)

Once the game has been decided you alter your bet for the next game based on the result. If you lost a bet on/against a team your new base for betting against / with that team increases by $10. Using the above games as examples and assuming all three teams we bet on lost we would increase our base bet by $10. Thus our new base bet would be $110. Again you must keep in mind the odds on the underdog when making your bets on the second game that each team plays. Assuming the same odds as game one for each team your bets would be:

Boston –150 / Opponent +140 (You bet $110 on opponent)
NY Yankees –170 / Opponent +160 (You bet $100 on opponent)
NY Mets –220 / Opponent +200 (You bet $90 on opponent)

If you lose any of these above bets the bet on the next game in which that team plays, again increases by $10 (New base is $120). If you win any of the above bets the bet on the next game in which that team plays, decreases by $10 (New base is $100). Keep in mind that your base bet never goes below $100 (unless of course the odds on the underdog in the game is +150 or more).

There is one other modification that I do make when betting this system. . That other point to mention is that your base bet actually drops by two levels ($20) once you win a game though your base bet never drops below $100 (unless the odds on the underdog in the game is +150 or more). Below I list betting patterns that might occur:

Example 1

Game 1: $100 on opponent (+130) (LOSS) vs. Boston
Game 2: $100 on opponent (+160) (LOSS) vs. Boston (Note that base is $110 but team is at +160 so bet drops one level)
Game 3: $120 on opponent (+120) (LOSS) vs. Boston
Game 4: $110 on opponent (+210) (WIN) vs. Boston (Note that base is $130 but team is at +210 so bet drops two levels)
With a win we now drop two levels for our new base bet.
Game 5: $110 on opponent (+140) vs. Boston

Example 2

Game 1: $100 on opponent +130 (WIN) vs. Boston
Game 2: $90 on opponent +160 (WIN) vs. Boston (Note that base remains at $100 but team is at +160 so bet drops one level)
Game 3: $100 on opponent +120 (LOSS) vs. Boston (Base bet remains at $100)
Game 4: $90 on opponent +210 (WIN) vs. Boston (Note that base is now at $110 but team is at +210 so bet drops two levels)

I know the above seems a little confusing but once the regular season starts I will post the bets I make each day for the first month of the season. That way you can follow my betting system and better understand it.

Cheers HockeyBoy, this looks kinda interesting, I think am gonna follow this.

(sports betting noob)

Probably gonna start off w $1000 and use $10 bets till I get the hang of it, sound ok? or is my profits gonna be so minuscule as to make it not worth it?

I cant find sites that take epassporte, so I guess I'm out.

HockeyBoy

Thanks for the clear explanation at the top, I've made sense of it after re-reading it a few times (it wasn't confusing, I just had to work out what +140 etc means lol). I've just got a couple of questions that don't seem to be covered (not sure if they matter or whatever)

i) Say Boston aren't favourites for a game, I guess we are betting on them instead of against them? Are we still using the same base level according to the results of the last Boston game, or a new base level for the new team we're now betting against.

ii) Same question I suppose, but once Boston goes back to being favourite, do we use the old base level from when they were last favourites, or do we use the base level from the previous bet (where they were not favourites)

Cheers!!

Yeah I got it cheers HockeyBoy

sounds good to me

I will also be detailing a betting method I use for hockey that has proved to be profitable. I don't know if it will translate well to baseball. I will experiment on it through the first two weeks of the season and see if it is profitable.

So here is the betting method I use in hockey that I will try out in baseball.

I will set aside $2000 for betting this and will make my starting bet at $20.

Basically it is betting on teams that are favorites to win the game. However, this method revolves on betting on that team using the -1.5 runs line. However, only bet when the difference between the line on them winning the game and them covering the -1.5 spread compared to to the base of -100 is a difference of 250 or more. For example lets say you have the following lines on the first day of the regular season:

TEAM Game Run Line
1) Chi WS -130 -1.5 +220
2) Minn. -160 -1.5 +180
3) Seattle -140 -1.5 +200
4) Texas -115 -1.5 +240

For the first game the spread difference is 250, second game is 240, third game is 240 and fourth game is 255. Thus we would place $20 bets on Chicago White Sox at -1.5 +220 and on Texas at -1.5 +240.

After the bets are decided for the day tally up your total profit / loss.

Profits Notes: If you are at the initial betting level ($20) and you made a profit on the day, stay on the same level when betting the next day. If you are at the second betting level ($22) and you made a profit totalling more than that level (profit of $22 or more) drop down a level. If the profit is between $0 and $21.99 stay at the same level. If you are at the third betting level ($24+) or above and you made a profit totalling more than twice that level (profit of $48+) drop down two levels. If the profit was under $48, stay on the same level until such time that the accumulated profit at that level equals $48 or more. Once that happens, drop down two levels.

Losses Notes: If you had a loss that totals more that twice the betting size of the bet you made that day move up to the next betting level. If you had a loss that totals under twice the betting size of the bet you made that day stay at the same level. However, once you have an accumulated loss (over two or more days) that totals more than twice the betting size of the bet you made you move up to the next betting level.

Betting levels when starting at the $20 level:

1) $20, 2) $22, 3) $24, 4) $26, 5) $28, 6) $30
7) $33, 8) $36, 9) $39, 10) $42, 11) $45
12) $49, 13) $53, 14) $57, 15) $61, 16) $65
17) $70, 18) $75, 19) $80, 20) $85, 21) $90

I realize the above is confusing. Once the season starts I will go over the actual bets I make so you can follow this system.

This betting style has worked for me in hockey. I like this for hockey because you are always betting on the favorite to win the game though they have to win by 2. Moderate favorites (ie. -130 to -150) only have to win by 2 goals once in three(+) games for you to show a profit and big favorites (ie. -200 to 250) only have to win by 2 goals once in two(+) games for you to show a profit. With hockey you get enough instances during the course of a season where the team you bet on is leading by a goal late in the game, the other team pulls their goalie and then your team scores to win by 2. Obviously in baseball that can't happen plus your team also will be denied being able to bat in the ninth when at home and leading by just one run. I will try this out for the first month of the baseball season and see how it plays out.

Later, HockeyBoy

The line is out for Boston's first game. I have made the following bet at Pinnacle:

$100 on Oakland +144 (Matsuzaka/Blanton must start)

I am holding off on betting on -1.5 lines as I had forgotten that the spreads on these games are vastly different from hockey.

I got Oakland at +146 on Pinnacle, but I noticed much closer to the game starting they were at +155 on Matchbook (they were at +140? on Matchbook when I made the Pinnacle bet), is it usually best to wait till just before the game to be making bets?
I'm just wondering if the bulk of the bets are made immediately before the game, skewing the odds further in our favour. Or something.

K am getting the following lines:

Boston +100 / Oakland -101 (Matchbook)
Boston -103 / Oakland -105 (Pinnacle)
Boston -115 / Oakland -105 (Carib)

Whats the plan?

No worries, its was about 4am your time or something anyways wasn't it, just thought I'd post on the off chance.

Anyway, dammit I ended up going with Boston (flipped a coin) and they lost anyway!
Oh well, live and learn, or something!

Record keeping advice would be handy, mines all on a messy spreadsheet atm, am not sure wot I need to record and wot I don't so I've recorded everything!!

Cheers HB

Hey Lee I checked out yr site but it confused me and then I forgot about it, ill take another look, cheers

So can someone tell me when the next regular season games are? Boston games against LA are exhibition, correct? MLB site does not help much.

I think the games in orange are exhibition games and the regular season games are grey on the MLB site, so the first game is Braves @ Nationals on Sunday 8.05 ET.

Mets and Yankees play on Monday 31st, Red Sox on Tuesday.

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Betting Baseball - Method I use has worked in the past.