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Posted: Sat, 02 Feb 2008, 12:21am Post subject: KQo in MP, TPGK on paired turn
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Flush

Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270 WPP: 82
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I'm looking in more detail at my KQo hands now that I realize they are one of my biggest losers (-0.55 BB/hand over the last couple of months).
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K , Q .
UTG calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: (6 SB) T , 9 , Q (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.
Turn: (6 BB) T (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero...
UTG is 40/4.6 and doesn't seem to bet the flop very often. He bets it here, and then more disturbingly donks the turn.
CO is an actual TAG (rare at this level), 19/11.1, no relevant notes.
The board is very connected and is now paired. My first thought is to raise again (and fold to a 3-bet), but maybe I should pull in my horns and call, planning to fold to a raise. |
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Posted: Sat, 02 Feb 2008, 2:28am Post subject:
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Full House

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 696 WPP: 77
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| Limping utg+1 is bad in all but the loosest of games |
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Posted: Sat, 02 Feb 2008, 7:19pm Post subject:
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Flush

Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270 WPP: 82
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| Noted. It's a fold on the ITH chart, a raise on the SSHE "loose" chart, and a flat call on the SSHE "tight" chart, so there's room for healthy debate. How about later in the hand? |
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Posted: Tue, 05 Feb 2008, 7:05pm Post subject:
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Flush

Joined: 20 Aug 2007
Posts: 263 WPP: 106
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I see 11 outs, some potentially tainted, so more like 7 clean outs and 4 half outs - call it 8 outs to be safe. So that gives me about 5.7:1 to call in a 6BB pot. Not to mention I have top pair second kicker and could very possibly be ahead here anyways.
No way do I fold this turn, but I probably call down. Raising depends a little on the other players - if CO is a real tag he is drawing, because he would have raised stronger holdings. You might want to raise to chase him out, but he would be getting 4:1 to call, which he could do if he is holding a pair and an OESD or FD. Raising would create a real risk of being 3bet by a made hand, and you would have to call it for one more with your outs. Better to slow down and get to showdown cheap if possible.
Villain could be betting his top pair - I would in his position with a scare card and a couple of reasonably tight players behind me on the turn, though facing a raise would be hard from his position as well if he isn't made. |
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Posted: Wed, 06 Feb 2008, 3:20pm Post subject:
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Flush

Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270 WPP: 82
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| arborman wrote: | | though facing a raise would be hard from his position as well if he isn't made. |
Hey, if he's a made guy I ain't messin' wit' him. (Sorry, I live on Sopranos home turf.)
I agree with your estimate of about 8 outs, and you're right that there's a chance that I'm ahead so definitely no thought of folding here. Now if I call, CO raises, and UTG calls (or 3-bets) then I'm out of here.
l.o.: my quick reply didn't consider the fact that I'm not open limping here. It still works out about the same (depending on reads, of course). |
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Posted: Thu, 07 Feb 2008, 11:44am Post subject:
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Straight

Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Posts: 247 WPP: 95
Location: SCOTLAND
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To say we have 7 clean outs is very optimistic.
2 Queens for a full house, but split pot against any Q hand ( dead against TT) (2 outs)
2 Tens for a full house, dead against any Tx,KK, AA. Splitting with any Q. (1.5 outs)
4 Jacks for the straight, but drawing dead to QQ,99,T9,QT,Q9 and splitting with any K, and AK would suck out on you (and Js would complete a possible Flush). (2.5 outs)
3 Kings for 2 pair, dead against AA,QQ,99, any Tx, any Jx (and Ks would complete the possible Flush). (0.5 outs)
So I would say about 6.5 outs
We could be ahead, but given that he bet the flop and turn (out of character) and there is also the CO to act behind us, I do not feel very good in this spot. I think raising would be pretty bad here. I would call the turn and hope I improve on the river. |
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Posted: Thu, 07 Feb 2008, 12:39pm Post subject:
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Full House

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 696 WPP: 77
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| as far as post flop is concerned i see nothing wrong with calling down uninproved. Ofcorse if the action gets to hot ie was are forced to face 2 bets on the turn or river then yes folding might be a mistake. Folding fo 1 bet though would just be wrong baring any significant reads. For example some players at the micros where i hang out only use utg's line when they have a set. When talking about limping utg i actually have sshe which is a great book by the way but most everything i have read on the net advises against limping utg. Ofcourse their is always an exception to the rule |
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