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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 2:58am Post subject: If i have x number of outs on the flop how do I?....... |
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 647
WPP: 78
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| Ok lets say i give myself 7 outs after the flop. I know my hand will hit by the river 28 percent of the time. I can know this by useing the x4 method. Just multiply your outs by 4. Now my question is how do i figure out my chance of hit my hand on the turn? |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 4:16am Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 7439
WPP: 71
Location: Doncaster, Eng-er-land
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 5:46am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 647
WPP: 78
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| I want to now how to figure my odds of hiting on exactly the turn. Lets pretend like the river does not exist for the time being. sshe gives a simple formula to use when drawing from the turn to the river. it is simply unseen cards/outs-1 For example lets say we have a gs str8 draw on the turn we would say (46/4-1)=10.5 meaning we need 10.5-1 to call I would like a similar formula for going from the flop to the turn. |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 9:06am Post subject: Re: If i have x number of outs on the flop how do I?....... |
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Flush
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Posts: 336
WPP: 80
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
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| littleogre wrote: | | Ok lets say i give myself 7 outs after the flop. I know my hand will hit by the river 28 percent of the time. I can know this by useing the x4 method. Just multiply your outs by 4. Now my question is how do i figure out my chance of hit my hand on the turn? |
28/2 |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 9:06am Post subject: Re: If i have x number of outs on the flop how do I?....... |
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Flush
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Posts: 336
WPP: 80
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
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| littleogre wrote: | | Ok lets say i give myself 7 outs after the flop. I know my hand will hit by the river 28 percent of the time. I can know this by useing the x4 method. Just multiply your outs by 4. Now my question is how do i figure out my chance of hit my hand on the turn? |
28/2 |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 1:19pm Post subject: |
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High Card
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Posts: 13
WPP: 156
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| Yeah, the quick way is just multiply your outs by 2. |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 2:38pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 29 Apr 2006
Posts: 271
WPP: 103
Location: Sweden
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| littleogre wrote: | | I want to now how to figure my odds of hiting on exactly the turn. Lets pretend like the river does not exist for the time being. sshe gives a simple formula to use when drawing from the turn to the river. it is simply unseen cards/outs-1 For example lets say we have a gs str8 draw on the turn we would say (46/4-1)=10.5 meaning we need 10.5-1 to call I would like a similar formula for going from the flop to the turn. |
The formula you want is exactly the same, unseen cards/outs-1. But you really don't need to be this exact. |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 6:12pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 930
WPP: 154
Location: GA
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The "Rule of 2 and 4" (Phil Gordon) says that you count your outs, in this case 7. Your chances of hitting an out on the turn are "outs x 2", and your chances of hitting an out by the river are "outs x 4". Both estimates are slightly off and a bit conservative.
With 7 outs, you'd estimate a 14% chance of hitting an out on the turn. Just a bit more than 6 to 1 odds needed for a call.
The EXACT probability is 7/47 = 14.89% or 5.7 to 1 odds. So if you use the Rule of 2 and 4, you'll always be a bit toward the safe side, as long as you insure that you're actually getting the odds you've calculated from the pot (+any implied odds). |
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Posted: Sun, 23 Dec 2007, 8:24pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 647
WPP: 78
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| ty to all. I actually just found an online tool that will give you the exact odds you need if you enter outs and size to call |
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Posted: Mon, 24 Dec 2007, 5:59am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 930
WPP: 154
Location: GA
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| littleogre wrote: | | ty to all. I actually just found an online tool that will give you the exact odds you need if you enter outs and size to call |
For two reasons, I think this is a bad idea.
First, it only takes a couple of weeks of working at it to be able to accurately assess pot odds in most common situations after which, in a couple of months, you have Miffed chart (or an approximation thereof) memorized pretty well. And then you don't have a crutch - you actually understand the game.
Second, most common situations play themselves after a while. As soon as you have 12 outs, you're a coin flip to win (if all your outs are live), so you have odds for an all-in shove on the flop. Below 8 outs, you rarely have enough - I play NLH, so unlike limit games, overcards don't typically give enough outs if the villain is betting for real. So the only situations that you have worry about are those with 8, 9, 10 or 11 outs. Typical flush draws are 9 outs, and typical straight draws are 8. Almost any combo draw is good enough to keep you in the hand.
I occasionally find myself in some marginal situation, like a three-way hand, where I discount some outs and the pot is bigger than normal relative to my contribution. When I have to, it takes about 10 seconds to estimate my pot odds within a percent a two. That leaves time for an educated decision before my clock runs out.
Sure, there is software that will display the "pot odds" and "equity" for you, some of them in "heads up display" format. Especially for SnG's. But this math isn't hard, and you need to be able to do it quickly on your own, if you ever want to be a solid player. |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Dec 2007, 4:04pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 647
WPP: 78
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| I have mainly been useing unseen/outs-1. That seems to be the easiest for me. Ie a gs on the flop would be 47/4-1 or 10.75 |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Dec 2007, 6:45pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Feb 2006
Posts: 2597
WPP: 105
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Use the 2-4 rule
GS = 4 x 4 outs 16% by the river
2 x 4 outs 8% by the turn
and it's not 47/4 its 43:4.
43 non outs and 4 good outs. The actual odds are 8.75% ( 2% off) and for a limit donk, this is way to far off for you to be using it |
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Posted: Tue, 01 Jan 2008, 10:16am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 930
WPP: 154
Location: GA
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| littleogre wrote: | | I have mainly been useing unseen/outs-1. That seems to be the easiest for me. Ie a gs on the flop would be 47/4-1 or 10.75 |
Trainer has this right. The Rule of 2 and 4 uses an "estimate" of 50 unseen cards. With it, your Gutshot has a 4/50 or 8% chance of hitting on the turn.
The actual odds are 4/47 or 8.51%. When you use the Rule of 2 and 4, you very slightly underestimate your chances of hitting your outs, and you keep everything in rounded whole numbers.
One you know it's 8%, you use (100 / 8) - 1 = 11.5 to 1 to get your odds of hitting.
It may seem a technical point, but tons of VERY good players use the Rule of 2 and 4 because it's quick, easy, and accurate in the right way for strategic planning - just slightly underestimating. |
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Posted: Tue, 01 Jan 2008, 11:14am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3532
WPP: 95
Location: Your place or my place
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Any sort of LHE player has these memorized, starting at around 10 outs all the way down to 1.
Write it on a piece of paper and put it next to your monitor. Refer to it frequently, and within a week you'll have it memorized. |
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Posted: Wed, 02 Jan 2008, 9:19pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Jul 2005
Posts: 3217
WPP: 155
Location: Watching African Handball.
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I typically play far too many tables so when I need to quickly figure this stuff out.. I use the 2/4 rule like a lot of you guys. It's more than good enough during a hand. If you want to get picky on the flop, outsx4, subract 1 from each out after 8... so ie. you have 9 outs x 4 = 36 - 1 = 35. If you're just looking for the next street you can just divide outs/unseen cards.
Also something that nobody mentioned.. you have to take into consideration your opponent's redraws (e.g. you have a flush draw they have a set, they also have 7 and 10 'god' outs) so instead of being ~35% to win, you're actually more like ~25% to win. These situations come up frequently on both ends.
Also, sometimes you can count your opponent's cards too (even though they are unseen, sometimes you can deduce what they have or more accurately figure it out from their entire range). |
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