Operation 100k

Right peoples, it's getting close to that time again!

It was around this time last year that I first came up with the idea for Operation 75k (now renamed). A quick summery of what happened there is; I started off struggling around for a while at 200NL, then started beating 400NL solidly. I moved up/ran well/ and eventually reached my goal at the end of January this year. In total I made $83,350 from poker over the 8 month period from June '06 to Jan '07.

Well since then things havent been going too well. Basically I started taking shots at 1kNL and 2kNL, in games were I was probably a marginal winner and possibly a slight losing player. The plan was that I could run breakeven for a while until eventually I learned enough to become a reasonable winner in the 1kNL game on Party. Things never go according to plan though do they! Since that decision to move up I've lost close to $30k just running terribly (and playing bad too of course) from my bankroll since the end of Jan. Couple that with some major withdrawals and basically my bankroll is decimated down to $20,000 from a high of about $65k.

So.. I've decided it's time for a fresh start. Hopefully somebody might have noticed that I'd stopped posting in my Operation: 1 million dollars thread. Quite simply that was just due to running bad. It's hard to post in these things without it turning into an out-and-out rant when you run bad. But this thread is going to be a fresh start with a bright outlook.

Only thing is at the moment I have my finals of this mechanical engineering degree thingy starting up in less then a week and then I'm going travelling in Eastern Europe followed by a 2 month jaunt over to America (SF>>Vegas/LA roadtrip>>Hawaii>>NYC). So I guess there wont be much poker in this thread for the next while. Hopefully it'll be a travelling thread fit to rival the mighty travelling Xianti for a while and then it can morph into a poker blog. I promise to include pics.

After all that is over I can get down to some serious pokering though. I'm not really sure what I'm going to do next year though. I don't want an engineering job just yet so I'm considering other career options such as doing a masters in Economics and becomming a pilot (yes I know LOL_diversification). Also I'm pretty sure I can rely on poker for at least a year while I get my act together, and I reckon I'll have a reasonable bit of time for poker no matter what happens in my RL. Pokerwise the goals of this Operation will be quite simple: Make $100k in 1 year. I know I have the capability to do this but I also know I had some serious problems with my last operation and I aim to fix them.

So here we goes...

Cliffnotes for the tl:dr clowns: Make $100k in 1 year.

First things first though, this is the most addicting online game I've ever played:

Miniclip Sky Golf:
http://www.miniclip.com/games/sky-golf/en/

My best score so far is 16 under par

Anyways, since I'm being all reminissent and thoughtful I guess I'll spew out some words about why I suck at poker.

I've played over a half a million hands of holdem in my lifetime. I don't have all of them recorded so I don't have an actual number but it's around just over half a million. And I'm almost embarrased to say it but yes I'm still playing 400NL. Some players have reached stakes way higher then that in a similar # of hands but for some reason I havent been able to rise higher then the low midstakes.

So why is this? Well I think there's a number of reasons. And more important then just straight leaks I think I've uncovered some psycological things going on behind the scenes, contributing to my difficulties.

I've come to the conclusion that thus far in my poker life I've never become a "thinking player". Yeah I'm TAG and solid and all that other stuff that half of the other 400NL regs are but thats just not enough. I think there's very few points where I felt I actually "exploited someones particular weakness's" further then just implementing what I've been thought by poker forums about playing certain hands in certain ways for certain reasons. I have the groundwork, but I'm lacking the structural plans needed to build a true skyscraper. I know it's possible to beat the non-fishes I'm playing with. People do it, there are people crushing the games above me who obviously have some knowledge that I don't possess and can't obtain thus far, mainly because I won't "think". I don't observe. I have people in my database that I've played >1000 hands with and I haven't a single note on. This leads me to my next paragraph.

I play like a robot. I'll often have 7/8 tables open and still be trying to read something on FTR or whatever in between clicks. I'm just playing on autopilot, hardly ever my A "thinking" game. And this is a problem I've had for ages, ever since I started playing poker it bored me to be playing. Because of this, I mindlessly take 100k hands to realise/internalise the same concepts that other players cop on to in 20k.

Also I think I deal with downswings badly. I don't mean tilt, I'll hardly ever have a bad bout of visible tilt. Superficial-emotionally running bad doesn't really affect me that much, I can handle it well and can often stay playing when stuck like 7/8 buyins without "tilting". Yet somehow I seem to have huge super long dowswings. I've had 2 30-40 buyin downswings so far in poker, and huge samples of hands where I was basically a breakeven player (I mean >130k hands).

Going by the accepted judgements pertaining to how big a factor variance is in poker I've come to the conclusion that I have a deeper problem. I think it's rooted in my ability to not tilt in the traditional sense too. I think when I run bad I go into a sort of zombie state perma-semi-tilt that leads me to make bad judgement calls and mistakes without ever reaching a point where I realise that I'm affected and can leave the table. Thus I have extended periods where I'm running bad and playing bad, all the while convinced that I'm doing a good job of not tilting.

Well there the main things I've been thinking about lately. I'm really supper disappointed in my poker career so far so this whole topic is something that I need to address. I'd love to hear any and all comments on all my ramblings up to this point in the thread.

Nice post. I recognize some of my leaks among yours... having lots of stats on regulars and no reads, playing on autopilot, not thinking deeply enough about hands. For me, 7 tables of 6max is too many. At 200NL I still play 7 b/c I can make $$$ playing like a robot, but when I move up I think I'll cut back to 4. The other root of not playing a "thinking" game is laziness. It takes serious mental effort to break out of a routine, stop surfing while you're playing, take notes after every showdown, and take your hand off the mouse before big decisions. I struggle with it constantly.

GL.

i think i knwo your SN on party, it'll be interesting to see how long it takes you to get mine once i start sitting in 400nl games at some point in the next month or so.

And no, i wont be on my midas related Empire name Razz

Played a short session of 400NL today tryin to get back in the groove since I've been playing some 200NL lately due to running bad and losing confidence. Went ok and I ended off up about $550.

I'm still not happy though. I feel like I'm losing too many 1/4 buyin sized pots and c-bets and the like. Maybe it's just variance or whatever.

And I wasn't able to force myself to pay attention today either.

***** Hand History for Game 5977390837 *****
Fort_Knoxx has left the table.
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Thu May 17 13:51:30 EDT 2007
Table Table 125918 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: bliblablubb111 ( $200)
Seat 2: corrallie ( $460.92)
Seat 3: Hero ( $280.45)
Seat 4: Nurita72 ( $38.80)
Seat 6: cwchcl ( $228.80)
corrallie posts small blind (1)
Hero posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Js, Ad ]
Nurita72 folds.
corrallie raises (7) to 8
Hero calls (6)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qs, Qc, 9s ]
corrallie bets (12)
Hero raises (34) to 34
corrallie raises (68) to 80
Hero raises (238.45) to 272.45
Hero is all-In.
corrallie folds.

stop hiding your SN pussy Wink

nice read btw.

ty ty

update plzz?

Aiight peoples it's time to get back to this thing. Updates will be a bit more frequent then they have been over the past few months since I'm now back from the great US of A. Had a great time over there and I would like to compliment any people from America who are reading this thing, whatever bad press your country get for international policy and all that other shit, everyone I met over there was super nice and friendly and I found most of the places I visited to have a great atmosphere. You have a kicking country.

Anyways, I've been back over a month now and I was hmming and hawing about whether or not to continue doing an operation at all but I finally figured I should. Hopefully this will be bigger and better then Operation 75k ever was. When I got back from America my bankroll had been reduced to $4000 because I had to cash out a bunch to fuel my lavish traveling. I took out a good bit too much but the good news is that I souldn't need to withdraw any more money from my BR for at least a couple of months. Living at home with the parents is sooo cheap.

As of the 19th of October just gone I'd been grinding away solidly. This was the status report I posted on another forum on that date (sorry, traitorism I know):

Here's a big EV calculation I did just recently about semi-bluff double barreling on the turn with draws. Hopefully someone finds it useful.

The scene is 100NL 6 handed with 100bb stax. I open raise 7

6

UTG. I only get one call from the button and flop an OESD on a paired flop. I make a standard continuation bet and get called. On the turn the board reads

9

8

9

(J

) Pot: $20.50

At this point we both have $90.50 left to bet. I estimate his range to be something like

A9s, A8s
QJs, QJo, QTs
JTs, 89s, 9Ts, 78s, 67s, 56s
99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44

This range covers a total of 58 hand combinations and my equity against this range is 30%.

Now, to estimate my fold equity I need to decide which of this hands he wil fold should I fire another barrel. Let's assume his folding range is

A8s,
67s, 78s, 56s
44, 55, 66, 77

This accounts for 30 hand combinations or 52% of his total range. This means if I do lead the turn he will fold 52% of the time.

His other options if I lead are to call or raise. I think we must assume that he will raise trips, full houses and straights at this point. He might call with quads but to simplify things I will assume that he raises on the turn. It would appear that raising hands make up a total of 22% of his range or 13 combinations. From this it follows that he must flat call with the remaining 15 combinations (26%).

For simplicity's sake and because we are drawing dead or thin to most of his raising range I will assume that we must fold out hand everytime we bet and are raised. It must also be noted that our equity against his turn range is not the same as our equity against the range that he will call with if we bet. Our equity against his calling range is roughly 25% since the tens in the deck give him a higher straight or split the pot.

Recall that there is $20.50 in the pot. If I lead for $14 and he fold then I win that $20.50. If I bet and am called then I improve to the best hand on the river one fourth of the time. The river pot would then bet $20.50+$14+$14=$48.50. My draw is reasonably well disguised so I think it is safe to assume I can win and average of $30 extra on the river when I improve. So in total, when I am called I win $20.50+$14+$30=$64.50 one quarter of the time and lose $14 the other three quarters. When I bet and am raised I lose $14.

Thus my EV is:

EV = (0.52)($20.50)+0.26[(0.25)($64.50)+(0.75)(-$14)]+(0.22)(-$14)

EV = $9

Thus this play will earn me an average of $9 every time I make it. It is important to not that most of this EV comes from the times that our opponent folds, very little results from the times that we are called and see a river.

Once we have established this basis we can begin to investigate what happens if we change certain variables.

For instance, what happens if our opponent is more of a calling station? If we increase his turn calling range to include A8s, 78s and 67s (9 extra combinations) at the expense of his folding range his action probabilities become:

Fold: 36%
Call: 42%
Raise: 22%

The new EV calculation is:

EV = (0.36)($20.50)+0.42[(0.25)($64.50)+(0.75)(-$14)]+(0.22)(-$14)

yielding an expected value of $6.70, still quite good.

So, it would appear that the EV of our bet increases if our opponent is weak tight or likes to float because he will fold a lot more to our second barrel. If the villain is a calling station or an aggressive player who is likely to raise a lot of his hands on the turn then the EV of our bet decreases. Probably the biggest weakness of this bet is it's vulnerability to bluff raises.

How about we see how things change if we exchange the J

turn card for the A

? We can assume that his action probabilities will now be:

Fold: 69%
Call: 19%
Raise: 12%

and the EV calculation becomes:

EV = (0.69)($20.50)+0.19[(0.25)($64.50)+(0.75)(-$14)]+(0.12)(-$14)

This yields the highest EV of all three calculations at $13.50.

This brings up an important point when deciding whether or not to fire a second barrel. It is best if the turn card appeared to help your perceived range rather then helped your opponent. In this case we have been representing high card hands throughout the hand. We raised preflop, bet the flop an the followed up on the turn. It will look to the opponent like the ace has possibly helped our hand, it has definitely helped out perceived range. On the other hand the Jack would be a worse card for us to fire at because it doesn't help our perceived range as much as the Ace but it does help our opponents range which is basically made up of the spectrum of cards between 4 and Q. This notion of perceived ranges is reflected in the EV calculations and is important to keep in mind at all times when playing poker.

Another thing which is important when deciding whether or not we should second barrel is our equity. The higher our equity the better because high equity equates to more money for us on the river when we are called. An important point here also is the level of disguise of our outs. The more disguised they are the higher our implied odds and the more money we stand to win on the river when our draw comes in. This increases the expected value. It is also important to keep board texture in mind. The more float friendly a flop is the more likely it is that our opponent is floating and the more likely it is that he will fold to another bet. The more likely the flop is to have hit our perceived range (ie. Ace and King high flops) then the less likely it is that we are being floated.

i missed you

Nice ev calc. ty.

Welcome back, glad to hear not everyone in the world hates us Americans.

Good to have you back! Smile

Your first Operation 75k thread was the one that sparked everyone else's which made Xianti create this new forum! So I'm excited to watch your progress again. Good luck in your pwning!

ty peoples. Hope this thread lives up to expectations!

So played a bunch of 200NL today. The biggest fish I've ever seen was at one of my tables for a while, much longer then he deserved by the way he was playing. The guy would literally call all in preflop for 150bb with any two suited. Here;s my attempts to capitalize:

NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 24, 14:34:29 GMT 2007
Table Oxygen 07 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of active players : 6
Seat 1: STUNTR1DER ( $249.85 )
Seat 2: MANESTIS ( $190.40 )
Seat 3: Sjorris ( $218.26 )
Seat 4: Favete ( $427.05 )
Seat 5: thatch1 ( $200.60 )
Seat 6: duckyfuzz ( $288.40 )
Favete posts small blind [$1]
thatch1 posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to duckyfuzz [ Qc, Qs ]
duckyfuzz raises to [$7]
STUNTR1DER folds
MANESTIS raises to [$12]
Sjorris folds
Favete calls [$11]
thatch1 folds
duckyfuzz goes all-in
duckyfuzz raises to [$288.40]
MANESTIS calls [$178.40]
MANESTIS goes all-in
Favete folds
Returning uncalled bet [$98] to duckyfuzz
** Showdown **
MANESTIS shows [ 5s, As ]
duckyfuzz shows [ Qc, Qs ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, 4s, Jd ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8h ]
** Hand Conclusion **
MANESTIS wins $391.80 from main pot with a pair of Aces

NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 24, 14:19:56 GMT 2007
Table Oxygen 07 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of active players : 6
Seat 1: STUNTR1DER ( $195.85 )
Seat 2: MANESTIS ( $121.25 )
Seat 3: Sjorris ( $234.56 )
Seat 4: Favete ( $467.25 )
Seat 5: thatch1 ( $191 )
Seat 6: duckyfuzz ( $389 )
Favete posts small blind [$1]
thatch1 posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to duckyfuzz [ Ah, Qh ]
duckyfuzz raises to [$7]
STUNTR1DER calls [$7]
MANESTIS raises to [$68]
Sjorris folds
Favete folds
thatch1 folds
duckyfuzz goes all-in
duckyfuzz raises to [$389]
STUNTR1DER folds
MANESTIS calls [$53.25]
MANESTIS goes all-in
Returning uncalled bet [$267.75] to duckyfuzz
** Showdown **
MANESTIS shows [ 3s, Ac ]
duckyfuzz shows [ Ah, Qh ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, Kh, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
** Hand Conclusion **
MANESTIS wins $249.50 from main pot with two pair, Eights and Threes

This ones not actually a bad beat but I think it's fine because the guy was calling AI with trash like Q7o no problem.

NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 24, 14:08:41 GMT 2007
Table Oxygen 07 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: STUNTR1DER ( $106.05 )
Seat 2: MANESTIS ( $131.30 )
Seat 3: Sjorris ( $219.21 )
Seat 4: Favete ( $491.25 )
Seat 5: thatch1 ( $200 )
Seat 6: duckyfuzz ( $213.95 )
duckyfuzz posts small blind [$1]
STUNTR1DER posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to duckyfuzz [ Qd, Ks ]
MANESTIS calls [$2]
Sjorris folds
Favete folds
duckyfuzz raises to [$11]
STUNTR1DER calls [$9]
MANESTIS raises to [$93]
duckyfuzz goes all-in
duckyfuzz raises to [$213.95]
STUNTR1DER folds
MANESTIS calls [$38.30]
MANESTIS goes all-in
Returning uncalled bet [$82.65] to duckyfuzz
** Showdown **
MANESTIS shows [ Ac, 6s ]
duckyfuzz shows [ Qd, Ks ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, 3h, Ah ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
** Hand Conclusion **
MANESTIS wins $270.60 from main pot with three of a kind, Aces

All in all a pretty sad experience and I ended the day down $375 total. I lost a set over set for 100bb's also so beats and coolers notwithstanding I think it was an ok day.

Only hand I think I played really bad was this one versus a 24/19 LAGGY guy. Basically tilt because of what was happening with the mega donator in the hands above on the other table at the same time. I should have just bet/folded the flop or check/called.

NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 24, 14:17:23 GMT 2007
Table Oxygen 08 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: duckyfuzz ( $234.15 )
Seat 2: B Slick ( $200 )
Seat 3: marvyn ( $135.93 )
Seat 4: Favete ( $226.94 )
Seat 5: IzoFazolzo ( $260.25 )
Seat 6: MateOwn ( $535 )
MateOwn posts small blind [$1]
duckyfuzz posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to duckyfuzz [ 9s, 9c ]
marvyn folds
Favete folds
IzoFazolzo raises to [$7]
MateOwn folds
duckyfuzz raises to [$28]
IzoFazolzo calls [$21]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 7h, Qh ]
duckyfuzz bets [$35]
IzoFazolzo goes all-in
IzoFazolzo raises to [$232.25]
duckyfuzz calls [$171.15]
duckyfuzz goes all-in
Returning uncalled bet [$26.10] to IzoFazolzo
** Showdown **
duckyfuzz shows [ 9s, 9c ]
IzoFazolzo shows [ 7c, 7d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
** Hand Conclusion **
IzoFazolzo wins $466.30 from main pot with full house, Sevens full of Queens

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