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Posted: Sat, 29 Sep 2007, 5:21pm Post subject: AK TPTK 4th hand ($27) |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 07 Jul 2005
Posts: 7982
WPP: 134
Location: Sydney
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Opp's stats were 29/16 over 38 hands from a previous tourney. How often am I up against:
- a bluff to pick off my supposed c-bet
- something I crush (Kx)
- something I'm 2:1 favourite against (flush draw)
- something I'm virtually drawing dead against (set)
- a 50/50 (OESFD, pair plus FD)?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1490)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1420)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1530)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1610)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A , K .
Hero raises to t80, 4 folds, CO calls t80, 3 folds.
Flop: (t190) 3, K, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t150, CO raises to t300, Hero ???? |
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Posted: Sat, 29 Sep 2007, 5:41pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 24 Sep 2006
Posts: 490
WPP: 41
Location: Huddersfield, England
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| I think this is wayyy more likely a FD or a weaker king than a set, from what iv'e seen people play sets a lot quicker in the turbo's, especially with the FD out there. But anyway yah, get your money in. |
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Posted: Sat, 29 Sep 2007, 5:49pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Posts: 1699
WPP: 111
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really hard to tell without seeing how he plays postflop...but in general I would think...
set - possible...but I would think the average player would flat call just in case the king was a scare card for you
bluff - very very unlikely. Since you raised UTG, any decent player would realize you probably have a solid hand and it might be hard to bluff you off it. plus people usually dont like taking huge risks early on
flushdraw - theres a decent chance he has something like Ax hearts (especially considering hes a 29/16)
Kx - assuming hes pretty aggressive, I would think KJ/KQ is possible and hes trying to sucker in pairs lower than his
as far as what to do on the flop, i have no idea |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Sep 2007, 8:25am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 19 Dec 2003
Posts: 1934
WPP: 77
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Your holding the [Ah], the [Kh] is on the board so what hands call preflop and pickup a flush draw. QJs, QTs, 76s,? Maybe the suited connectors?
Solid players know QJs/QTs play like trash against a raise.
And if you played 38 hands with the guy I'm guessing he busted 5-6 handed in whatever tourney you had him in, so 29/16 is fairly aggressive, so I think we can take take tight out of the situation.
I think pushing and folding are both available to you here.
Its early and you can easily fold here and pick up the chips later.
Its early and you don't have any "time" invested here so firing up another one is easy.
Staring at the HH i'm thining about folding and picking up those chips again later.
At the table during a SnG though I'm pretty sure I push here, try for the early double and if I'm beat just fire up another. |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Sep 2007, 4:59pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 May 2007
Posts: 3574
WPP: 145
Location: Ballarat, Australia
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I'm tempted to think he has a PP but not a set. The question is does he have TT-QQ, or has he played a trappy AA?
This looks like a probe-bet to me. He has something, but isnt sure if you're just c-betting or if you really hit. I probably push over. |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Sep 2007, 7:55pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 19 Dec 2003
Posts: 1934
WPP: 77
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| I don't know, I donk off here constantly so i'm glad this hand is posted for discussion. |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Sep 2007, 9:20pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 07 Jul 2005
Posts: 7982
WPP: 134
Location: Sydney
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| fjuanl wrote: | | bluff - very very unlikely. Since you raised UTG, any decent player would realize you probably have a solid hand and it might be hard to bluff you off it. plus people usually dont like taking huge risks early on |
I don't agree that this kind of minraise is very unlikely to be a bluff. For players who have no idea of position but have seen on TV that the pros make continuation bets after raising preflop, this kind of minraise isn't always the nuts - it's often them trying to pick off a c-bet as cheaply as possible. |
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