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Posted: Wed, 28 Mar 2007, 7:40pm Post subject: Good fold with 6 left to act? |
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Straight
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 196
WPP: 539
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Big stack had played well from what I saw, aggressive with blind steals, but not maniacal. Was this a good lay down?
PokerStars Game #9139929770: Tournament #46446831, $1.50+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/03/28 - 22:21:44 (ET)
Table '46446831 2' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: fjcd (3807 in chips)
Seat 2: brenda67 (5121 in chips)
Seat 3: huntercgr (2428 in chips)
Seat 4: jpm18490 (7985 in chips)
Seat 5: gamblin'ambi (1531 in chips)
Seat 6: NeMo3D (950 in chips)
Seat 8: QueenCris (2443 in chips)
Seat 9: zachaser (2735 in chips)
fjcd: posts the ante 25
brenda67: posts the ante 25
huntercgr: posts the ante 25
jpm18490: posts the ante 25
gamblin'ambi: posts the ante 25
NeMo3D: posts the ante 25
QueenCris: posts the ante 25
zachaser: posts the ante 25
gamblin'ambi: posts small blind 100
NeMo3D: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zachaser [Ad Kc]
QueenCris: calls 200
zachaser: raises 400 to 600
fjcd: folds
brenda67: folds
huntercgr: folds
jpm18490: raises 2000 to 2600
gamblin'ambi: folds
NeMo3D: folds
QueenCris: folds
jpm18490 said, "i'll show"
jpm18490 said, "or you can call"
zachaser said, "show"
zachaser: folds <--- Obviously, I folded. I thought I had a good read that he was holding a decent pocket pair, 88+ or better. Do I really flip here? By folding, I still have ~10bb's, and I'm > the shorties. If I called and won, I would be close to chip leader, with good position to win. What do you think? I'll tell what he had after some responses. |
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Posted: Wed, 28 Mar 2007, 8:01pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 3554
WPP: 78
Location: emo-kid
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| easy fold. if there weren't still 9 players the decision would be closer. |
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Posted: Wed, 28 Mar 2007, 8:35pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6169
WPP: 65
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raise at least 4x pre flop, and I insta call this. "don't need to flip" is incorrect thinking. It pays you to call, so you call.
You're priced in with range given:
| Code: | Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.593% 39.34% 00.26% 24248486 157584.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 60.407% 60.15% 00.26% 37079290 157584.00 { 88+ }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.250% 40.06% 08.19% 39102379 7990517.50 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 51.750% 43.56% 08.19% 42517914 7990517.50 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
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Given his stack I think your range is too tight (look at what happens if you add AQ), but it's still a call. almost 4k out there, 2100 to you, call. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 9:13am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 3554
WPP: 78
Location: emo-kid
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| drmcboy wrote: | | "don't need to flip" is incorrect thinking. It pays you to call, so you call. |
why do you want to take a break even call (or slightly +EV) so early in the tournament? |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 9:24am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 642
WPP: 121
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| This isn't early in the tournament. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 9:30am Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6169
WPP: 65
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| with the money in the pot it's clearly +EV and not break even. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 9:57am Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 06 Nov 2006
Posts: 153
WPP: 114
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| To me it seems like a clear call too. The pot odds are favorable. Plus if you fold you only have 10 bbs left and the blinds are going to be doubled in the next level. (Which cant be too far away since it is a turbo). So although you have more chips than the shorties you are going to be very shortstacked yourself pretty soon. So I would take this chance to double up. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 10:24am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Posts: 705
WPP: 97
Location: South Bend IN
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Hes not going to be raising that much with kings or aces, at least most players wouldnt. Hes trying to use his stack to bully you out of the pot, as he clearly doesnt want action. I think your up against QQ at best and maybe even AQ. This is a call for me everytime. Id flip to win 5700 chips than play with 2000 at 10x bb.
PS: Is this Jamie Gold? |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 10:53am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 3554
WPP: 78
Location: emo-kid
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we're getting 2:1 to call all in. my bad, the initial limp+raise fattened up the pot a little i forgot to account for. so i guess call is correct. i still like folding. maybe it's backwards thinking, but i make this call in an instant on the bubble, but am more likely to fold when there are many players left despite having good odds.
as for the "early" comment, i probably used the wrong word, since i was referring to the fact no one has busted yet. don't you love the tight turbos??
| dsmrolla06 wrote: | | Hes not going to be raising that much with kings or aces, at least most players wouldnt. |
hero raised UTG+1 after a limper. villain isn't going to be reraising without a decent hand. PP are very likely, althought AT+ is possible too, but unlikely. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 10:58am Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 11 Jul 2006
Posts: 249
WPP: 118
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| Quote: | | PS: Is this Jamie Gold? |
LOL
This is a tough one but I would probably call if the blinds are about to go up, but if they have just gone up then i'd lay this down. I think its that close IMO[/code] |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 11:06am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jun 2004
Posts: 1258
WPP: 112
Location: Bluffalupagus
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This is an easy call, methinks, unless you think Opp is tight enough to only do this with Aces and maybe kings.
the pots laying you a little better than 2:1. if we simplify and call it 50/50 for the flip, you have to take it. Even if Opp has kings, it's you're ALMOST getting the right price to call.
Earlier in a tournament, you can chuck this in, maybe... but ten BB's does not afford you a lot of play.
You've already found yourself in push/fold mode by way of making an initial Preflop raise.
You should take this "Flip" at two to one with a deeper stack, rather than depending on the fate of the cards where you don't know what's coming, and will end up taking 1 to 1 on a push with what may end up being a weaker hand than you have now. You'll win more in the long run in this situation. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 11:15am Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6169
WPP: 65
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| Quote: | | maybe it's backwards thinking, but i make this call in an instant on the bubble, but am more likely to fold when there are many players left despite having good odds. |
I'm not sure if this is serious or not, but this is exactly backwards. Early, Chip EV = $$ EV. Toward bubble they diverge. I can understand adjusting your range since at the bubble the table is short handed but it doesn't seem like that's what you are saying.
It sounds as if you're trying to maximize your chance to win this tourney we're playing in. It's all one long tourney. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 11:21am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 642
WPP: 121
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| drmcboy wrote: | | Quote: | | maybe it's backwards thinking, but i make this call in an instant on the bubble, but am more likely to fold when there are many players left despite having good odds. |
I'm not sure if this is serious or not, but this is exactly backwards. Early, Chip EV = $$ EV. Toward bubble they diverge. I can understand adjusting your range since at the bubble the table is short handed but it doesn't seem like that's what you are saying.
It sounds as if you're trying to maximize your chance to win this tourney we're playing in. It's all one long tourney. |
Well put.
Early comment - 1 person busted and the table is about to hit 200/400. Regardless of how many people are left, this sng is almost over. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 11:23am Post subject: Re: Good fold with 6 left to act? |
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Full House
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Posts: 705
WPP: 97
Location: South Bend IN
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| zachaser wrote: | | Tournament #46446831, $1.50+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit |
| |~|ypermegachi wrote: | | hero raised UTG+1 after a limper. villain isn't going to be reraising without a decent hand. PP are very likely, althought AT+ is possible too, but unlikely. |
Im sticking with QQ at best for villain. At this level players arent overbetting aces and king to get you to call. Your much more likely to see a minraise with those hands at a 1.50 sng. I think your likely ahead here for flipping at worst. |
Last edited by dsmrolla06 on Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 12:06pm; edited 2 times in total
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 11:59am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 2547
WPP: 121
Location: motorboating
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| There's too many people left and the blinds are too high. You can't worry about folding into the money right now. You have a vulnerable stack with an M of 5. You need to gamble right now and this is a great situation. This would be different if you had a better stack and close or on the bubble. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 12:49pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 694
WPP: 246
Location: Wisconsin
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| |~|ypermegachi wrote: |
as for the "early" comment, i probably used the wrong word, since i was referring to the fact no one has busted yet. don't you love the tight turbos?? |
By the stack sizes it lookes like its a 2 or 3 table SnG, so if this is the final table a lot of people have busted so far and they are close to the bubble. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Mar 2007, 1:26pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 196
WPP: 539
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| Thanks guys, this was helpful. Will definitely make the call next time. By the way, guy showed JJ. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Mar 2007, 12:00pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 22 Nov 2005
Posts: 3910
WPP: 104
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
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