zook's Picks: NBA January

New month, new thread. I'm not very happy about the way the NBA season's going so far... been putting in a fair amount of effort without seeing any results. Hopefully 2007 will treat me better. All plays at Pinnacle, unless otherwise noted.

YTD:
Sides: 33-32
Moneyline Dogs: 8-15
Totals: 10-13
YTD: +0.38 units ($7.60)

One play for tonight, from a capper and a fading Charlotte play, which I like:

Minn -3.5 vs. CHA (-109) - 1 unit

One early play for tomorrow night, also from a capper.

SA -3.5 vs. CLE (-105) - 1 unit

1-0 in the NBA in 2007 Dancing

Was going to bet Den -7.5 vs. Phi, but the line movement on this game is suspicious. Public is all over Denver, somewhere between 80% and 62%. Yet the line opened at -7, moved to -8 but now went back to -7 and looks poised to move to -6.5 (juice is at +102). Anyone looking for a reverse line move play may want to take Philly +6.5 or M/L +250. I can't decide, but I'll probably stay away completely.

A capper posted another play I like, Phoenix -4 vs. Chicago, but this game has had reverse line movement too. Opened at Pinny at -5 and has moved down despite the public betting Phoenix at a 66% clip. Weird. I really like Phoenix here, so I'm not sure what to do.

Alright, going against a capper and my gut and taking Chicago. Public's on Phoenix to the tune of 65% and the line has dropped from -5 to -3.5.

CHI M/L vs. Pho (+146) - 1 unit

Wish you hadn't done that just yet because I went to research what you said.

Line DID start out at -5 at Pinnacle, BUT it started out at -3.5 at thegreek and at -4 at BetCris.

I just thought I'd give you better info. Anyway, I may still endup joining you on that bet. We'll see. Smile

Thanks. Opened at 4.5 at Matchbook. Still, a point or half-point of reverse movement against an "average" opening line. Although now the juice on Chicago +3.5 is up to -111, so it might move back to 4. Use at your own risk, obv Very Happy

NEVER use Matchbook opening lines. Just a tip. They just use Pinnacle's line at the time their markets go up.

They are NOT a line originator.

0-2 on the night, but the Chicago loss was a bad beat Smile

YTD:
Sides: 34-33
Moneyline Dogs: 8-16
Totals: 10-13
YTD: -0.71 units

A solid capper posted this play, taking the points. I decided to take the M/L too b/c the line has gone down a half-point despite public money being on Washington.

Mil +4.5 vs. WAS (+100) - 1 unit
Mil M/L vs. WAS (+178) - 1 unit

FYI, both Arenas and Haywood are listed as day-to-day and Arenas missed practice yesterday. This might be why the line moved down to 4.5 despite public money on Washington. If they can play, this line might move up again and if they can't I bet it will move down further.

Added one more, from a capper. He got it at under 215, but I'm hoping there's still value here:

GS vs. Mem UNDER 212.5 (-104) - 1 unit

That should be it for tonight. Let's go Bucks!

I lied. I'm hitting this total too and possibly one more. I was strongly considering this and then a capper came out with it so...

Mil vs. Was UNDER 225.5 (+100) - 1 unit

I'm staying away from the Milwaukee game. Line movements regarding injury are just that - line movements. No reverse stuff, no second-level thinking - just reactions to new information.

Plus, Pinnacle doesnt seemt to want any Washington money. If anything, I'd bet on Washington.

If you can get out of that bet without too much trouble, I'd strongly consider it. If you keep it, go bucks! Smile

Again, thanks for the input. I agree that there isn't any reverse line movement here and Pinny doesn't seem to want action Washington. But a second capper posted Mil +4.5 as a play, so I'm staying on it. And go Bucks! Very Happy

did I make some bad bets today. All four of them have moved against me significantly... Pinny now has Mil +5.5, M/L +185, Mil/Was under 227 and GS/Mem under 215.

This is a good reminder to wait until much closer to game time to place my bets. Brick wall

Well, tonight shows you how much of a crapshoot betting the NBA can be... my plays looked pretty bad going in and I ended up 2-2 and didn't even lose juice. In fact, the play I was most confident in got spanked the worst. Think

YTD:
Sides: 35-33
Moneyline Dogs: 8-17
Totals: 11-14
YTD: -0.71 units

Just a heads-up about a definite reverse line movement game... public's on the Lakers at a 60-64% clip and the line has moved from Kings -4 to -5.5. I might make this a 2-unit play, there's definitely some sharp money on the Kings tonight. Waiting a couple of hours though...

Careful. Don't go overboard with the whole 'reverse line movement' thingy.

If the data is only that the public is on the Lakers at around 60%, you should probably let it go. Sometimes, you just have standard deviation messing with the 50/50 split that the books aim for.

I just wanted to keep things in perspective for you, not to rain on your parade, so if you have other factors inducing you to bet on the Kings, then by all means do so, but don't make this a two unit play just because of this reverse line movement.

Thanks lee. A good capper made the Kings his play and they have a big homecourt advantage. But still, I think it's pretty likely that big bettors are on the Kings... sportsinsight shows 64% of bets on the Lakers, covers 60%. If it was just standard deviation, why the point and a half move? Always appreciate words of caution though Smile

Whelp, the line is back down to -5 so I might stay off Sac/LA altogether.

This is all I have right now, big home dog, taking the points in a game with a low total posted:

NO +8 vs. Det (+100) - 1 unit

Hornets looked terrible last night. Gave me hope until the 4th, but oh well.

YTD:
Sides: 35-34
Moneyline Dogs: 8-17
Totals: 11-14
YTD: -1.71 units

A capper's on this play and I like it too. Dallas is on fire and getting points. Tempted to bet the M/L, but haven't decided yet.

Dal +5.5 vs. SA (+100) - 2 units

Couple of M/L plays for tonight, first from a capper, second is mine.

Utah M/L vs. HOU (+134) - 1 unit
NY M/L vs. SEA (+183) - 2 units

I like the Knicks tonight, QRich is back and the Sonics have been terrible without Rashard. Don't love betting on NY, but here goes...

Two more. Lotta units in play tonight, but I feel good about it.

Dal M/L vs. SA (+210) - 1 unit
Dal vs. SA OVER 185.5 (-105) - 1 unit

Nicely done!!!

Woot + lotsa units! Smile

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zook's Picks: NBA January