From the ashes...

Allrighty. Looking back over my NBA bets, I have deviated a lot from my original plan of just fading the public. I started using other handicappers picks to augment my own; I started using simulations to try to make “+EV set-like” bets where I should win over the long run. Well guess what? Those +EV bets did horribly, and it’s not as though I didn’t give them a chance.

In the last week or so, I’ve dropped the majority of my profits I made earlier during the season. Why? Stupidity: betting the board, thinking that I actually had an edge on every game. Remember the newbie circle of death with poker? Yeah…I did that with sportsbetting with the NBA. Very Happy

One good thing did come out of this entire experience, though. If you’ll look at my record from before, even though I got destroyed basically (if you add back the ‘spread factor’ games as losses and switch that number of losses to wins, I think I’m still under 50%), I’m up money. This should show you that betting underdogs on the moneyline rather than simply the spread in the NBA is long term +EV.

Had I gone even 50%, I would still be down had I used the spread, because I would have had to pay more every time I lost (1.05 units for every spread bet on the underdog lost vs. 1.00 units for every underdog moneyline bet). And yet, I’m up, despite being <50%. Wow.

Two caveats to that: against the Spurs, the Mavericks, and the Rockets, if I go against them, I will be taking the spread. The spread factors into their games WAAAAY more than it does other teams in the NBA (like 25% as opposed to 12%), so it would actually be worth it in their games to take the spread over the moneyline.

SO….what to do now?

I’m starting over to give myself a fresh start and to hopefully distance myself from the stupidity that WAS ensign_lee’s NBA bets as of late. I will post my final record before in my old thread and leave it at that (it’s still +money; thank goodness for that). So from the ashes I shall rise and hopefully go at the NBA with a much better betting strategy.

Also, I think I can more accurately gauge factors that go into a bet now, so I won’t necessarily be flat betting any longer. I will be changing the size of my bets due to the following factors:

A respected handicapper posts a play – increase play by 1 unit
Public is on a play at 66.6+% - increase play by .5 units
Public is on a play at 70+% - increase play by .5 units
Public is on a play at 80+% - increase play by 1 unit
Reverse line move of a half point – increase play by 1 unit for every half point
Pinny lean is on a play – increase play by 1 units
Favorite becomes an underdog (without injuries and without reverse line movement) – increase play by 8 units (no; not a typo. I believe in this THAT strongly)

So, for example, let's say that the game is Utah @ Portland. The spread opened at Utah -3. Later on, the game moves to Utah -2 while the public is on Utah at 74% or so. Pinnacle is holding Utah -2 (+102) while everyone else is holding a Utah -2 (-110) on this play. However, a respected handicapper has posted Utah -2 as one of his plays.

That would mean that this would be a 3 unit play (1 unit for against the public by 70+%, 2 units for reverse line move of a whole point, 1 unit for Pinny lean, -1 units for going against a respected handicapper).

Now, some of you may be saying “What happens if you end up with something like a .5 unit play, or a 1.5 unit play?” Well, now we get to use our discretion. For the former, we get to decide if we actually want to make the bet or not. For the latter, we get to decide if we think this play is strong enough to warrant a 2 unit play, or whether it is merely ‘a strong 1 unit play’.

One thing I’m going to be trying focus on is discipline. It always seems that I start off disciplined and then get my face owned when I grow undisciplined with my bets. So that’s why I created this system; so that I couldn’t let my emotions get the better of me. And I need a favor from y’all: if you see me doing stupid shit and not practicing what I preach, call me on it. I need it. Please.

Allrighty. Here we go; ensign_lee vs. the NBA, rd. 2.

I like you're analyzation of your faults, it's good to take an honest look and if it isn't working how you would hope you should find a way to change it. Goodluck to ya and I'll probably be taking your bigger plays as my NBA plays. The one thing I did notice after you started off hot was the exponential amount of bets you started making. Just remember there is not an edge on every game and it's alright to not bet each one.

Hey man, good luck to ya and your stuff has really helped me so far!

ball on balla

Two good pieces of advice above:

First game up is

Atlanta Moneyline (+160)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Public is on Chicago at around a 75+% clip. The line, however, has moved, but only 1 point. The +147 is the current price; I'm going to wait until gametime to get a better price and then will update the odds in a future post.

New York Moneyline (+175)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Public is on Denver at around a 4:1 clip (80% or so). However, this line HAS moved like you would have expected it to, 2.5 to 3 points in the right direction to try to induce money on the underdog. Therefore, this is only a 1 unit play. I will try to wait until closer to gametime in order to get the best price on this play.

Sacramento Moneyline (+119)
4 units at Pinnacle

I'm going to lock this in now, because this line seems to be freefall to 0 for some reason or other. I don't see any injuries which should have affected this line the way that it has been affected. Reverse line move from the opener of Phoenix -3 to now Phoenix -2. Also, a handicapper that I respect in the NBA has posted this as one of his plays. This will be my first 'non-1 unit play'.

Memphis Moneyline (+241.08)
1 unit at Matchbook

Public is on Miami at around the 66+% threshold, but the line has moved 1 point in the correct direction. However, Pinnacle has a slight lean on Memphis, so that's enough to make this a 1 unit play for me.

{edited to add the prices I got on Atlanta and New York}

One more that qualifies today:

Minnesota -1.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Pinny lean has been on Minnesota for the better portion of the day, with them holding Minnesota -1.5 (-111) while the rest of the world held Minnesota -1.5 (-110). Also, a respected handicapper posted Minnesota -1.5 as one of his picks today. Public is pretty divided about this game, split right down the middle, so not factor there. Erog 1+1 = a 2 unit play.

0-5, -8.05 units. That's freaking great...

So that means I am like 0-10 my last 10 picks and something like 4-34 my last 38 picks. Emo

Awesome...

Discipline, ensign_lee. Discipline.

Tough break on the SAC game, thought they should have pulled it out last night.

Lee, why are you betting games where the lines moves properly. Do you think you hold that much of an edge betting these games? Don't know if you keep the m/l records like you do in football but how profitable has this range really been for you +100-+175?

Anyways, don't worry about it man, after our Texans win today it'll all feel good.

Hey bigspenda:

Even when the line moves in the right direction, I still feel as though I have an edge. It's not as big as when the line moves in the wrong direction (hence why those bets are much bigger), but often the public is still wrong enough to make those plays +EV. If you look back through the historical records using closing lines (after they've been adjusted for the lines moving in whatever direction, usually in the right one), the public still ends up losing more often than winning.

One bet to to continue the torture tonight:
Seattle Moneyline (+230)
2 units at BetTrojan
Public is on Detroit, and yet the line has gone from DET -6.5 to -6. Public is on Detroit at around 70% or so, give or take a percent.

So, uh...if you're fading me, the play would be either DET -6 or DET moneyline. Wink

Hopefully, this will be the first win.

And the ashes continue to smoulder.

YTD: 0-6
Units Lost: 10.06
Spread Difference Factor: 2 games

For tonight, I have:

Sacramento Moneyline (+152.88)
1 unit at Matchbook

Public is on Dallas at around a 3:1 clip . Line hasn't budged.

So, if you're fading me (which would have been EXTREMELY PROFITABLE over the last 40 plays or so. I'm like 4-36 my last 40), the play would be Dallas moneyline or Dallas -3 (-115) at skybook.

YTD: 0-7
Units Won: -11.06
Spread Difference Factor: 2 games

~~~
Woot go me. Confused

Allrighty, we have the following on deck for tomorrow. The bet sizes have been created based on the rules created earlier, so you don' thave to worry about me chasing. Wink

Atlanta Moneyline (+200)
3 units at Skybook
Public is on Utah at around 75% or so. Pinny lean was heavy on Atlanta up until about 3 minutes ago. Line has not budged, except for reverse line movement of a half point at a few books. I'm waiting to get the best line on this.

Philadelphia Moneyline (+215)
1 unit at Pinnacle
Line has moved a half point in the wrong direction according to Pinnacle's opening line. A point and a half according to Cris's opening line. Public is on Indiana as a 6 point favorite at atround a 2:1 clip. Huh...

YTD: 0-9
Units won: -15.06
Spread Difference Factor: 2 games

~~~
Atlanta had a fucking 21 point lead going into the fourth. I cannot believe that they just lost. Not only did they lose, but tehy also failed to cover the spread at the last possible shot too. Holy freaking crap. I am cursed.

Crying or Very sad

Let the massacre continue. I actually have two bets that fall into bettable regarding these systems tonight:

Sacramento Moneyline (+127.4) @ Denver
8 units at Matchbook

Why is this bet so big? 3 whole points of reverse line movement = 6 units. 70% or so of the public on Denver = 2 additional units. Ergo, 8 units. This is do or die, I guess. Uh oh...

New York Moneyline (+211.68) vs. Chicago
3 units at Matchbook

3 units because of 80% of the public being on Chicago, and yet the line not budging.

Here goes nothing...

Tongiht's the night. 3 pts reverse movement? Seriously? Damn I'm all over it. Goooo Kings?

Hold'em Dice...Hold'em

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT

NICE HIT SIR, see all you needed to happen was to have me on your side. I apologize.

Way to comeback lee! Don't love the 8 unit play after your long losing streak, but obv you knew what you were doing Smile

Congrats!

WOOOOOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dancing

Wow!!! I just added up the math. And I'm in the black!!!

YTD: 2-9
Units won: 1.50

WooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOT! Dancing

Sweet.

2 units (+130) pinnacle KINGS over nuggets

congrats guys. Very Happy

Thanks for having faith in me, guys. I'll admit; I was losing faith in myself. Smile

Let's hope last night wasn't just a fluke. Here's what I've got:

Detroit -10 (-107.14)
1 unit at Matchbook
Pinnacle has been trying to shoo away Detroit money all day, trying not to budge from Detroit -10 (-112) while everyone else has Detroit -10 (-110). Good enough for me.

LA Clippers +7.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan
Pinnacle has been trying to shoo away money from LA all day, just like Detroit, but even more so. I don't think they've held the best number on LA for longer than 15 seconds today, if that (I certainly haven't seen it). Their lean on LA is even heavier than that on Detroit, holding (-113) or even (-115) at times on the number that everyone else was holding at (-110). The line move from +9 to +7.5 is what makes this play worth an extra unit for me.

Memphis Moneyline (+159)
3 units at Bodog

Public is on Utah at around a 2:1 clip. Yet the line has moved from an opener of +4.5 to +3.5 now. 1 full point reverse line movement = 2 units. 66% or so = 1 additional unit. Ergo, 3 unit play.

Here goes... :/

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From the ashes...