Setzy's 2008: Supernova Elite Bound

Finally had a downswing today at 100NL. As to be expected, you can't run blazing hot forever. Today I knocked out 2k hands and some change and ended up down about 4-5 buyins, I forget exactly what I started at. Didn't have any true bad beats, a guy hit an 11-outer on the river for a stack (he went allin with bottom pair and nut flush draw on the turn), one time got minraised on the flop with TPTK oop, guy bets big into me on the turn, pushes river and hit a hidden runner runner flush (TPGK on the flop) to beat my two pair for a stack. Got reraised off several preflop hands when I lost pot odds to call, lost a QQ to KK allin for half a stack, lost about half a stack to a shortie with AK vs KK on a K high flop, lost a whole stack with AK in a reraised pot vs. AA (guy's first hand at the table) on a K high flop. Middle two pair was beat by top two pair for half a stack or so. I think that's all of 'em, or at least all the ones I can remember. My sets weren't getting paid, and my other hands weren't showing down well. It's funny how you can remember the bad ones, huh Smile

In a way I'm glad to go on and have a downswing, especially after running so well. I'm still in the black overall at 100NL at Stars, and I'm still over my monthly goal, which is all I really care about. The monetary goal wasn't so important this month, but I do want to try and get plenty of hands down by New Year's to try and play 200NL. Plus, now I know that even after losing more than I have before, I'm still looking to the future and more playing, not to the past with spite and disgust. I think this means I'm pretty hardened as a player, and even though there is still SOME emotional connect to losing, I can take it in stride.

MicroBR: $2250

Heh - I didn't play last night in the end but lost about $30 in the afternoon just 1-tabling $50 - downswing now roughly 7 buyins. Funnily enough, this chunk of negative variance is making me relax about things in the same way that an upswing makes me get increasingly worried about the inevitable collapse.

How looooooooooow can you go? Pretty low, I guess.

In a nutshell, I'm grouchy. The last few days of 100NL have been the finest in poker hell I've seen. I can't win for losing, basically. Sadly, I've come full circle, hit the bottom as far as buyins I was prepared to lose at 100NL, and now I have to go back to 50NL and try again. I'm right at where I was BR wise when I first loaded up 100NL. I've played an absolute ton of hands lately; ran poorly, played below my A-game (I think), tried anything to get this mess to fix itself, and yet nothing seems to help.

It's just going to be time. I know from past downswings it's just going to take a couple hot streaks and I'll be back in the thick of things. But backtracking when I'm trying to move FORWARD to 200NL is not helping things at all. 100NL is not supposed to be that hard, and with the amount I have studied, read and played, I should be solidly beating this game. Yet at this juncture, I am not.

I'm disappointed in things. I suppose I will post some hands later after I go over them.

MicroBR: $1761

Sorry to here you are running cold... I appear to be the yin to your yang.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/forum/poker-46834.htm

Get the confidence back at 50 and you'll swing up again. You can beat this game.

Pretty much running in circles the past few days. Today I am down a few buyins after a few good sessions the past two days. I read Lukie's thread about not pulling the variance card and I don't want to do that. I'm tired of blaming things on beats and whatnot, but the reality is that a lot of it can be boiled down to the absolute nittiness I'm finding at 50NL.

I've not worried that much about table selection at the limits I play, but I think it's becoming more of an issue. It's not altogether uncommon for me to run into one or two people on each table with VPIP/PFR in the 11/3 neighborhood.

I am also having trouble with AK hands, which I never have in the past. Over my entire sample at Stars I'm losing with AK, which is unacceptable. I have to figure out these problems and progress.

MicroBR: $1786

100NL can be a shitty jump because there aren't as much fish comparatively to 50NL, but there's nothing you have to do differently. So just keep at it and hope you start running better.

How utterly boring tonight was.

I can honestly say I've never seen a span of hands that were so mundane that I disliked it as much as these. Tonight I played roughly 2300 hands and never won an entire stack off someone, which I am pretty sure is the longest span I've never stacked someone that wasn't a full stack. I did drop a stack with KK vs a flush, but after that it was just like everyone stopped playing big pots with me (and I wasn't even on that table for much longer). It was simply one of those nights nobody plays when you hit, and when you don't hit they are playing back at you. Called plenty of preflop raises looking to hit sets, the few that came were in unraised pots and one that was on a monotone flop and it folded as soon as I bet out.

Didn't really end up down that much, just 2 buyins...very much in the normal swing of variance. I honestly don't think I could have ended up much more by playing any different than I did. It'll change...it has to!

MicroBR: $1900

And November draws to a close.

Been on a decent streak the past couple days at 100NL, though I just dropped a stack versus a very loose opponent in my very last hand. It happens.

November goals -

Boost the micro-roll up to $2000. - Complete!

Go play live 1/2 a couple of times. - Failed..I didn't go to the casino once. I'm questioning whether it's really worth the time to do it or just better for novelty value..I live about an hour and fifteen minutes away, so that's almost 3 hours drive round trip. So, live play is on the back burner for now.

Consider splitting some of the micro-roll off into a full-time "live" roll. - Considered, decided against it.

Try to get to PlatinumStar on Stars..that should be pretty hard. - Complete! Finished this about halfway through the month.

So I got the monetary part down, and the Platinumstar.

I've really been thinking about goals, more than usual..and I think I'm going to work towards a few more long-term goals. Namely to get my financial situation outside of poker back to zero, so I can start investing and possibly work towards buying a house.

Anyhow, here's my new set of December goals:

Get 100% comfortable at 100NL. I'm almost there.

Make a conscious effort to try and play a little 200NL Ring.

Get to 100,000 FPP on Stars. (48k currently)

Finish positive for the month, in any amount.

At the end of the year I will be posting annual goals for 2007, which should include a plan for paying off my student loans, and a profit goal that lets me use poker money as living expenses.

MicroBR: $2217

keep up the great job setzy... im sorta in the same boat... 100nl has been kicking my ass with variance and bad play on my behalf, so i've been building up my micro-roll in 10-25 nl... until im in the right mind frame to go play 100nl again...

And we swiiiiiing...

Earlier today I played some, dropped a few buyins, won them back after a time. Then I took a break, played some more later, and started dropping buyins..except this time the bounce didn't go back up, it just kept going down. 600 hands later, I'm down 4 buyins and some change. Ugly.

Bad play? People may seriously deny their bad play and leaks, but this time I can say it wasn't anything I did. Maybe I should have gotten away from the KK hand when the preflop minraiser reraised allin for a full stack after I reraised and there were 2 other callers. Maybe, but with the other people's money in the pot, I mean COME ON it's the second best hand!

Ugly hand #2 - Setzy puts in 80% of his stack on flop and turn with JJ on a T high TTxx board, river comes 3 and villain hits his 2-outer for the rest of my money.

Ugly hand #3 - Setzy gets AA in EP, raises and gets reraised by a full stack. I decide to flat call his reraise, and check a horrible looking TJQ flop. Villain bets, Setzy puts it all in and Villain calls. Turn comes an A and the river bricks, and a different villain scoops another Setzy buyin with KK. (Same table as my KK vs AA)

Throw in the loss of a few medium-ish pots and no big wins, and we have a bummer night. After talking with a friend, we've come to a realization that I think is going to be a pretty big problem.

I'm underrolled for multi-tabling 100NL. It's true that this is my micro-fun BR and I technically should be doing anything I want with it, but my plan was sort of to build my micro BR up to replace my old one. If you read the old parts of my blog, I used to multi-table 25NL with many buyins, way more than typical "Bankroll Management" guidelines. At 100NL I have practically half my micro BR on the table at any given time.

So now in the midst of trying to accumulate a mass of FPP, I've found that problem. Right now I think my best course of action is going to be to get to a level of FPP I can stop and acquire something at, then go back and start working with a lower level.

Current MicroBR: $1770

I decided that since I've been playing online poker for 6 months seriously and haven't done anything with it (including with my bad beat jackpot money), I went and bought a big screen TV and am withdrawing a large portion of my micro BR and moving back down again. New goals soon.

My new goal is to not set a goal for this month. I don't want to have any pressure...it's the holidays, and I've been playing so hardcore the past few months. I don't want to risk burnout when all it may take is losing a few buyins (not tilted, beats!) to make me really want to quit.

I respect a large amount of the FTR community, but there is something to be said about the skill level at Stars 100NL Ring compared to 25NL. It isn't easy. Practically all I do is study hands and try to improve my poker game, and I'm barely a winning player at 100NL. After that last set of beats, I believe I actually dipped a little below what I started at when I moved up. I felt I wasn't having fun. I felt too connected to what was going on. That was a recipe for some long-term disaster.

So I immediately remedied it, treated myself, and moved down to a level where I'm the tough player and know I'm capable of winning. I don't think that I'm only good enough to play 25NL, but I think that it's much easier for me to win at a long-term rate there. After playing higher limits, the amounts played for at 25NL seems paltry.

When I withdrew I started again with 20 buyins for 25NL, $500. A few days later I'm up several buyins. We'll see where it leads from here.

MicroBR - $692

Hey man, I hear ya loud and clear... after my sick morning of +9-buyins.. I've managed to float up and down and I currently find myself back where I was BR wise (~1800) and I have little confidence that my game can consistently beat the 100NL crowd. My past few sessions I typically had no idea whatsoever where I was in the hand... I either get outplayed or outdrawn.. and even though I suck out some and out play a few.. those occurences are definitely in the minority.

I'm not sure if it's best to go jumping back to 25NL (even though that does sound relaxing).. or if I should just try to cut back and try playing on 4-tables at a time at $100NL. What are your thoughts?

I was also curious about your FPP's.. I was all primed to land an LCD TV.. but if I kick it back to 25NL or even 50NL.. I'm not sure if that's ever going to happen. Do you have a rough estimate of the FPP/hand you earn at those stakes?

GL man... keep the thread going regardless, it's a good read.

I'm PlatinumStar, and now at 25NL I seem to be getting roughly 1FPP per 3 hands. At 100NL is was almost 1 per hand. I don't remember what it was when I played 50NL, but I would figure it's probably 1 point per 2 hands.

I got my TV today, and it's smokin' badass. Thanks to FTR, or I'd never have made the money to get it Smile

Now I just need to get some new stuff to play and watch on it..

On two separate occasions I have decided I was going to camp out and get me a Wii (biondino back me up!) and both times there were too many people in line...I loved Super Smash Bros. Melee on the Gamecube so I might just wait till the new one comes out for the Wii before I get one.

I love doing whatever I want, and taking it easy this month is making things really good. Grinding is okay, but we all know how mentally draining long sessions and taking beats can be. I am not winning a ton of money or anything, but I'm enjoying my sessions more than I have been in the past couple weeks..and I'm keeping them shorter, too.

For another change of pace I've been playing 25NL 6-max. I've decided I want to learn some poker and quit nutcamping..though it's not all huge bluffs and slim edges at this level, it's still pretty straightforward I've noticed, and it's looser than ring. Perhaps I can move up in this..but I'm not rushed, and that's something to think about at a later date. I may have an extended stay at 6-max, I may move back..I don't know, and at this juncture, it really doesn't matter.

I'm taking a new approach to keep my mentality stable. I have purposely not looked at my balance for the past few days. Whenever I play I purposely don't look, which is very very hard because I used to check so often, and I know that detracts from play. I think I'm up, but I'm not sure Smile

I may do something like check once a day or something, maybe at a fixed time. All I know is I don't want to be checking after hands, in the middle of playing and whatnot. Indivdual sessions don't matter, and with this much experience I should know that by now.

MicroBR: ???!

Poker Forum

Poker Forum Index

FTR Blogs and Operations

Setzy's 2008: Supernova Elite Bound