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Poker Forum
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 8:22am Post subject: Eupho wants to chase middles. |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3563
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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I like scalps, who doesnt, but my bankroll is too small for them to be useful. Gaurenteed money is nice, but a gaurenteed $0.22 is mildly insulting ;]
Ok, so a hypothetical to make sure I understand this middling thing. Book 1 has Tampa -7 v. SanFrancisco. Book 2 has the same game with tampa -10. If we buy tampa at book A and SanFran at book B, and Tampa wins by 8 or 9, we hit middle?
Ok so here are the outcomes figuring a 1 unit bet on each.
Bet1) Tampa -7
Bet 2) San Fran +10
Tampa wins by 11 (or more): Win bet 1, Lose bet 2. Net: 0 units
Tampa wins by 10: Win bet 1, push bet 2(?this may be where im wrong?): Net 1 unit
Tampa wins by 9: Win bet 1, win bet 2. Net 2 units
Tampa wins by 8: Win bet 1, win bet 2. Net 2 units
Tampa wins by 7: Push bet 1(??), win bet 2, Net 1 unit
Tampa wins by 6 or less or doesnt win at all: Lose bet 1, win bet 2: Net 0 units
Did I get that all right (particularly Win by 7 and win by 10? is this where the half-bet thing comes in? How does the half point change middling?)?
And so to do this, you either have to find two sportsbooks with vastly different lines, or buy one line and hope it moves, right? I don't think the former happens often, (does it?) and I don't think I can predict the latter.
And in football, teams rarely win by 8 or 9 anyway... 9 being the more common of the two... Seems like it might be better suited to sports like hockey, baseball, or basketball... which is fine with me.
So all that said, can someone explain half-middles and things like that?
Thankee. I'll try and find some real-life examples of middles to post and do some paper-betting until I get the hang of it. |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 9:05am Post subject: |
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i wouldn't mind a change...
Joined: 12 Jul 2004
Posts: 4608
WPP: 87
Location: TagFish
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| Looks right, except that book one will never have that much of a difference in spread between the two teams. The best middle you'll be able to get is maybe 1 point, usually its a half point with comparable juice. |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 9:09am Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 111
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Yes. Your example works.
Thing is, there will almost NEVER be that amount of difference between two books.
If you do find some (like BetUS), make sure they are not a stiff operation. Hitting middles does you no good if you can't get paid. |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 9:20am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3563
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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Thats probably true...
Lets look at the two lines for bowmans and pinnacle for San Diego vs Chiefs
San Diego Chargers -5 +100 @pinnacle
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6 -115 @bowmans
So this is a middling opportunity, correct? But as you pointed out, the scoring difference would have to be exactly 1 to hit it.
We'd take the pinnacle -5 for san diego, then bet +6 at bowmans for the chiefs.
B1) SD -5
B2) KS +6
San diego wins by 7+: Win B1, Lose B2, push - vig
San diego wins by 6: Win B1, Push B2: Net +1
San Diego wins by 5: Push 1, Win 2: Net +1
San Diego Wins by 4: ... wait... somethings wrong.
What did I screw up? There is no middle here... or well, more exactly, the middle is on a half point at 5.5 which can't happen. So there needs to be a significantly larger spread.
I see the problem. |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 9:35am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3563
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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| Is there any logic to grabbing a bunch of bets early, middling the ones where the line moves significantly, and simply laying off the ones that dont by betting the opposite (assuming you can find two sportsbooks with exact same lines/juice which I dont *think* is too difficult) |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 9:39am Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 111
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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| euphoricism wrote: | Thats probably true...
Lets look at the two lines for bowmans and pinnacle for San Diego vs Chiefs
San Diego Chargers -5 +100 @pinnacle
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6 -115 @bowmans
So this is a middling opportunity, correct? But as you pointed out, the scoring difference would have to be exactly 1 to hit it.
We'd take the pinnacle -5 for san diego, then bet +6 at bowmans for the chiefs.
B1) SD -5
B2) KS +6
San diego wins by 7+: Win B1, Lose B2, push - vig
San diego wins by 6: Win B1, Push B2: Net +1
San Diego wins by 5: Push 1, Win 2: Net +1
San Diego Wins by 4: ... wait... somethings wrong.
What did I screw up? There is no middle here... or well, more exactly, the middle is on a half point at 5.5 which can't happen. So there needs to be a significantly larger spread.
I see the problem. |
In football, you have to remember "key" numbers. 5 is nearly useless. 6 is kinda useful, but ultimately not that useful. It's worth a shot.
Just remember that you're more likely to bleed away little by little for awhile before you hit yoru firs tmiddle. I still haven't hit my first middle yet. |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Oct 2006, 9:40am Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 111
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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| euphoricism wrote: | | Is there any logic to grabbing a bunch of bets early, middling the ones where the line moves significantly, and simply laying off the ones that dont by betting the opposite (assuming you can find two sportsbooks with exact same lines/juice which I dont *think* is too difficult) |
Yes. Yes there is. You have to be aware of public perception and what the books will do with it.
Sometimes, they'll move hte OPPOSITE way, and you'll end up eating a lot of juice to get off your bet; otherwise, you'll end up sticking iwht your bet, which may win or lose (but if hte public is on your side adn the line moves to make the line you took better than before, chances are against you). |
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