Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 6

YTD: 35-33-2
Units won: 52.44

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 19-14-2
+100 to +110: 6-6
+111 to +125: 1-2
+125 to +185: 4-2
+186 to +300: 3-3
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 15-15-1
2 unit plays: 14-11-2
3 unit plays: 1-3
4 unit plays: 1-1
6 unit plays: 2-0
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1
12 unit plays: 1-0
16 unit plays: 1-0

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

~~~
Allrighty: here are the games that interest me this week.

HOU +13 (-110) @ DAL
2 units @ Pinnacle

Ok. So I'm from Houston. I'm man enough to admit that this may slightly influence my bet here. But let's look at the facts. Texans are off a bye week and just watched a Philly team dismantle Drew Bledsoe. This is a big rivalry game for the Texans. Texas Pride and the governor's cup, after all, are at stake.

Cowboys have the Giants game coming up and may disregard this in-state rivalry to look ahead. 12 points is a lot of points to be giving, much less 13. Oh: and the Texans are 1-0 SU against the Cowboys. Let's make it 2-0, boys!

For fun, I may stick one unit on the Texans moneyline later. Yes, I'm that crazy. Wink

WAS -9 (-110) vs. TEN
6 units @ Skybook
I may buy back some of this later, but for now 6 units seems right.

Tennessee played tough last week, I'll give them that. They held a good Colts team down for most of the game, losing on a backbreaking drive by Peyton Manning. But I don't think lightning will strike twice.

Tennessee still has a porous run defense, which will allow Portis to run everywhere, taking pressure off of Brunell. And Washington's defense is nothing to scoff at either.

Meanwhile, Young is still a rookie QB trying to adjust to the league from running an offense taylor made for him in college.

Washington should be able to take care of business here

CIN -6 (-107) @ TB
6 units at Pinnacle

Honestly, I'm afraid this is a bit of a trap. I'll see where the public is later and see the appropriate line moves (or absence thereof).

However, I think that Cincinnatti will be able to take care of business here. Tampa Bay's offense will simply not be able to keep up. And Cincy's offense should be able to handle Tampa's aging defense. They (TB's D) still have the experience and the smarts, but have collectively lost a step.

Cincy wins in a bounceback game.

I'm also eyeing the following bets:
Wanted to take the Texans over 42, but the line moved on me. Contemplating whether or not to still hit it.

Also, the lions may be worth a bet against Buffalo. In my experience, teams that go from favorites to underdogs tend to do well. Plus, in a game with two evenly matched (in my eyes) teams who are on the same level, I'll take the home team at +money.

LETS GO TEXANS!

Like the Baltimore bet, this Cincinnatti bet now stinks to high heaven. I'm going to have to figure out a way to reverse it, even if it means eating juice and losing money regardless of what happens.

KC +8 (-120) @ PIT
4 units at Skybook

KC has been surprisingly good without their star LT and QB. I'll take them +8 so that PIT has to win by a touchdown or more to cover.

KC +4 1st half (-104) @ PIT
2 units at Pinnacle

So KC has to be losing by 6 or more, which is very nearly a touchdown? I'll take that at the half.

GAH...

I don't know how I'm gonna get out of that CIN -6 (-107) bet...

I am waiting on the following moneylines to rise up:
TB Moneyline
NO Moneyline
STL Moneyline
MIA Moneyline

Either that, or for NO and STL to reach +3.5.

Home doggies with the public on the other side constitutes most of my reasoning for those bets.

MIA Moneyline (+122),
4 units at Pinnacle

Too many people on the Jets. For evenly matched teams, I'll take the underdog when the public's on the other side.

STL Moneyline (+145)
2 units at Skybook

Too many people on SEA. 4-1 team vs. 4-1 team, and the home team is the underdog? Hmm...

NO Moneyline (+155)
2 units at Pinnacle

NO +3 (-101)
2 units at Matchbook

Too many people on the Eagles after a big emotional win over Dallas.

DEN -13.5 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

Mike Shanahan hates the Raiders. And the Raiders team is a mess. I think this is worth it.

Parlay: TB Moneyline / TB UNDER 44 (+465)
2 units at BetTrojan

I really don't think that Tampa's gonna win a shootout in this game. If they win (and the oddsmakers seem to think that they're going to win), this will be a low scoring affair. So, one results slightly influences the other; this is the stuff great parlays are made of.

TB Moneyline (+190)
4 units at Bodog

TB +5.5 (+110)
4 units at Bodog

I know I went with Cincy originally, but damn. There are a lot of people on Cincy and the books keep moving the line down. WTF?!?!

In order to cancel my original CIN -6 (-107) bet, I placed a TB +6 (-129) bet. YUCH...a whole lotta juice.

So...if Cinci wins by 7+, I will lose an additional 2.2 units in addition to my normal bets.

This essentially nullifies my Cinci -6 bet, but with risk attached.

Make sense to everyone?

What about the Baltimore game? That seems like a good one?
@baltimore -3 carolina

I took houston also, Drew bledsoe is going to crumble soon!

Yikes. I got kinda owned today. 5-7, but don't let that fool you. If Tampa doesn't convert that 4th down, I'm 2-10.

aaaagh.

Up 2 units on the day, but only because of one game. Yeesh.

Record update in a little bit.

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Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 6

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Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 6