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Posted: Wed, 04 Oct 2006, 8:58pm Post subject: Little assignment for Lee |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 Jul 2006
Posts: 4864
WPP: 82
Location: Pwnsylvania
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Alright, here this is your mission should you choose to accept it. Take 1 NFL game this week that you think is the most volatile. Track the public, the sharps, and the total money, and explain how everything effects the final line. Finally, make a final pick based on all of the gathered information.
Just food for thought, I just think it would be interesting if you (or anyone) would break this down on a specific game. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 9:55am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3301
WPP: 85
Location: practicing mindfulness
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| I'm n00b enough that I don't even know where to find most of this information. So I'd love to follow an analysis like this too... |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 3:53pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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| uh...define 'most volatile.' |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 4:31pm Post subject: |
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Strike 1
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 3161
WPP: 106
Location: Taking the second pitch...
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by most volatile he means one with a line that you expect to move significantly because of some reason that you can document.
By significantly I mean enough that you can abuse the movement for profit. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 4:38pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 Jul 2006
Posts: 4864
WPP: 82
Location: Pwnsylvania
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 7:46pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Is absence of a line move good enough, or does it have to be a line move?
And does it have to be a future line move or one that already happened? |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 8:42pm Post subject: |
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Strike 1
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 3161
WPP: 106
Location: Taking the second pitch...
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| ensign_lee wrote: | | Is absence of a line move good enough, or does it have to be a line move? | In the end I think either would be fine, see below.
| ensign_lee wrote: | | And does it have to be a future line move or one that already happened? | I think possible future line-move would be more interesting. Of course it's possible since you're only picking one line it's possible nothing will happen. Also, I feel you generally do a very good job summarizing your points anyway.
Back on track, what I imagine. Next week, you pick one line and start a new thread. Track changes to this line, why you think they happened, for what reasons. Or why the line isn't moving but it should be. Basically what you are thinking all week while pouring over the numbers. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 8:46pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 Jul 2006
Posts: 4864
WPP: 82
Location: Pwnsylvania
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Honestly I think you could do it 1 of 3 ways
You can find a line that has moved and assess the reasons
Or
You can find a line you think will move and why
Or
You can pick a game for Sunday, show us the stats now, then when or if the line moves show the stats again and explain them.
Thanks |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 5:30pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Ok. Here we go:
Exhibit A:
Houston +13 @ Dallas (-110) - Pinnacle
This line will move down because of sharp money early. Public money may or may not move the line back up (I'm leaning towards no. It won't move back up, because of the performance of the Cowboys today)
By the way, I'm already on it. Both because I'm from houston (home bet - woooh!), and because I think if I really want to, I'll be able to scalp this out later. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 5:32pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Exhibit B:
SEA -3.5 (-106) @ Pinnacle
or
SEA -3 (-115) @ BetCris
This line will be moving up, no doubt. Public will not bring it up ginormously because of last week's game against CHI, but they will still move this line. Public money will be moving this game.
Sharp money? I don't know what they're going to do this week.
If this game stays RIGHT where it's at, and people continue betting it, then I would recommend proceeding with caution. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 5:35pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Exhibit C:
Chicago -10 @ Arizona (-110) - BetCris, Pinnacle, TheGreek
This line will move based on public money. Chicago has trounced their opponents the last two weeks by 30+ points; don't think that hasn't gotten the attention of the public. Meanwhile, Arizona hasn't done very well for itself either, amassing a 1-4 SU mark, and a 1-4 ATS mark. I'm thinking that if this line moves like it should, the line will end up around -12 or -12.5, possibly -13.
If you like Chicago, bet it now. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 6:13pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 Jul 2006
Posts: 4864
WPP: 82
Location: Pwnsylvania
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| Thanks Lee, I think this will be really interesting to see how it moves. And btw, congrats on the week and you're a true ballah w/ that 16 unit play. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 8:53pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Also, exhibit D:
CIN -6 (-109) @ TB - Pinnacle
I REALLY like this bet, but know that the public is going to be on this side.
I might think about doing a scalp on it, taking it huge now, and trying to buyback later at +money.
I'd look for this line to be -7 by Friday, perhaps -7.5 by gameday. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 9:41pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 1461
WPP: 122
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
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| how do you know which side the public and sharps will be on? is that just educated guessing based on recent performance? |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 10:08pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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| Greedo017 wrote: | | how do you know which side the public and sharps will be on? is that just educated guessing based on recent performance? |
Yes,. Yes it is.
After a little while, you can kinda tell what the public will be all over. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Oct 2006, 10:28pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 10 May 2005
Posts: 327
WPP: 140
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Posted: Mon, 09 Oct 2006, 1:02pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3566
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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moving "down" means the spread will get closer (IE, a 10 point becomes a 7 point), and moving "up" means the opposite, right?
Sharp Money - The sportsbettors who are after their edge, as opposed to the public who are just picking winners? |
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Posted: Mon, 09 Oct 2006, 1:40pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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| euphoricism wrote: | moving "down" means the spread will get closer (IE, a 10 point becomes a 7 point), and moving "up" means the opposite, right?
Sharp Money - The sportsbettors who are after their edge, as opposed to the public who are just picking winners? |
moving down means going from -10 to -9, yes.
Sharp Money - tends to be people who pick winners longterm (think shark for poker)
Public Money - think fish |
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Posted: Wed, 11 Oct 2006, 9:31pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 Jul 2006
Posts: 4864
WPP: 82
Location: Pwnsylvania
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| I know it's early, but any updates for us yet Lee? |
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Posted: Wed, 11 Oct 2006, 10:02pm Post subject: |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2081
WPP: 113
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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I was wrong on the HOU/DAL game.
CIN line went down. WTF?!?!?! 80% of people are on CIN!
SEA line has yet to move. However, only around 67% of people on SEA.
Chicago line has been moving. |
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