Operation hit and run

Goal: With a bankroll of $300 test the profit expectation of sitting down at a 25 nl holdem table with 6-7$ and going all in preflop with these hands:

Any position: AA-TT, AK, AQs (1 out of 26 hands)
Late position (opening or behind loose limpers): Add 99, 88, AQ, AJ, ATs (1 out of 14 hands)
CO/Button/blinds opening: Add 77, AJ, AT, A9s, KQs (more?)
Behind a "tight" raiser: AA-QQ, (AK only if you're sure you'll be heads-up)
Limp with any pocket pair too small to push with if i can sneak in with a limp. All in post flop if I hit my set.
Play the blinds for cheap, push if I hit top pair and it looks like I have the best hand.

Various notes:
-will play 3-4 tables at a time.
-if i double up i leave the table.
-if i bust i buy in once more, if i bust again i leave and find a new table.

Things I will be tracking:
-$ per table
-$ per hour
-Total $ won
-Total hrs played
-% of times called
-% of times won
-avg. number of callers

Time span of operation:
Approx. 1 month (my winter break from college)

Will update after every session. Any suggestions are welcome.

I'll be keeping my eye on this. I doupt I would care to spend my time doing this, but I'm very interested in how it turns out.

Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of this as well, but good luck!

*Last edited by TheDoc on Thu, 16 Dec 2004, 7:54pm; edited 1 time in total*

session one:
-----------
starting br: $300
Total tables played:11
#table at a time:3
Times called:14
Times won:8
Times split:1
Times blinds taken:14
Times all in:28
# of callers:15

Time played: 1hr
Bankroll : 342.33
Session $:+42.33
$/per hr:42.33
$/per table played over the hour:$3.48
avg$per multitables per hour:14.11
$/per called:2.82
$/per win: 5.29

ooooOOOOoooo.

-'rilla

session two:
-----------
starting br: $342.33
Total tables played:10
#table at a time:3
Times called:15
Times won:10
Times split:1
Times took blinds:16
Times all in:31
# of callers:13
Time played: 1hr
Bankroll :377.53
Session $:35.2
$/per hr:35.2
$/per table: 3.52
avg$per multitable per hour:11.73

Important things i've noted: If you double up leave immediately, do not put your new stack at risk. Also i tend to be dominated every 1/5 times i go all in. Another thing is, about every 2 blinds per 1 hr session provides me with an all in hand post flop that i win. One more thing i made a bad play one hand because i thought i had the best hand on the flop and didnt so that lost me about 7-8$.

Very nice results!

I am very interested in how this turns out, but not really interested in doing it myself. For one I enjoy playing proper poker and am also making nice profits the old fashioned way.

I doubt that startegy would be as effective if it became overly popular. As it is now most people I come across with short stacks seem to be making all-ins in desperation rather than as a part of that strategy.

I've seen people try this strategy at 1$/2$, never successfully as they generally get called only by premium hands and end up being dominated.

Very interesting experiment.

I just tried this "strategy" for about 45 minutes. I started joining the .05/.10 NL games and starting with $3. Sure enough, 3/4 times someone would call with dominated and I would cash in. The only "scare" I had is when it was AA v 77, he flopped a set, but the river was an ace.

I don't really think this means anything because I think everyone knows this is good for making small amounts of money vs crappy players, but wouldn't work at higher levels (or would it??? hm...)

Im fairly confident that with the strat im using i can keep up 25$ and hour earning rate at 3 tables. And well considering my job only pays 7$hr thats not bad at all.

session three:
-----------
starting br: $377.53
Total tables played:12
#table at a time:3
Times called:17
Times won:10
Times split:1
Times took blinds:12
Times all in:29
# of callers:20
Time played: 1hr 15 min
Bankroll : 449.07
Session $: +71.54
$/per hr: 57.23
$/per table: 5.96
avg$per multitable per hour: 23.84
$/per called: 3.58
$/per win: 7.15

Important notes: Really good session, could of been better was dominated once the entire time. Gave one bad beat, received 2 bad beats. Had 2 hands in the blind where i doubled after i think a monster flop. Also an observation i had was that some of my plays depending on the action preflop, i would fold some stronger hands if i sensed strength early on, or push with weaker ones if i sensed weakness.. this worked out well. My only real big mistake was pushing on a flop with a mid pocket pair i thought i had the best hand, but guy called me with mid pair that was higher then my pp.

Misc tendencies: im def seeing a pattern with the things mentioned above
2-4 blind hands hit big and i double up about half the time
get about 1-2 bad beats per session
only dominated about 1-2 times per session.

also note: would have about 25 $ more had it not been for someone hitting a runner runner straight to my set of jacks in a 3 way pot, and also lost about 15 $ on a hand where i went in on 66's when everyone was weak on the flop, guy called me and hit runner runer 4 card flush to beat me.

Shit forgot one more thing, i've noticed my attention span/interest for doing this runs out at about and hour, that's why ive only done 1 hr sessions. This is kind of a good thing, because it gives me a lot of flexability knowing i can get a good amount of sampling done in an hour.

session four:
-----------
starting br: $449.07
Total tables played:16
#table at a time: 4
Times called:23
Times won:10
Times split:1
Times took blinds:10
Times all in:34
# of callers:31
Time played: 1hr
Bankroll : 444.52
Session $:-4.55
$/per hr:-4.55
$/per table:-.28
avg$per multitable per hour: -1.13
$/per called: -.15
$/per win: -.46

HORRIBLE SESSION: Started up 25$ in 20 min then took a huge string of bad beats, made the money bad then got more bad beats . towards the latter of the session i made some plays, but i lost maybe 10-15$ tops on those.

bad beats:
runner runner straight (top pair on flop and outkicked him)
runner runner flush(all in aq)
ak(me) vs kj vs 77 i tripped up 77 hit set + boat on river.
ak(me) vs aq vs 55 nothing hit
flopped a set vs someone rivering higher set vs someone with shit
flopped tripps, someone hit annother boat on river in another 3 way pot.

bad plays: gave 1 bad beat (had top pair on flop he had over pair and i hit trips next card), was dominated 3 times and lost them all

notes: MULTIWAY POTS ARE BAD! they are extremely detrimental to the strategy i lost every multiway pot i played in i think (maybe won one or 2, but there were atleast like 6-7 multiway pots), and they were pots i otherwise would have won had one of the players who shouldnt of been in the pot wasnt in there.

There has been some discussion of this type of strategy before. I believe this strategy is a winner. As you play on, you will be able to refine the strategy. For example, if you have Poker Tracker, you can figure out which hands you are losing money on and drop them from your list.

The other advantage of leaving the table after you double up is that the other players won't catch on to what you are doing. You may want to leave the table after the first time you go bust, for the same reason.

In those multiway pots, the small PP's were actually the favorite. AK loses most of its value when it gets called by 2 hands. S&M, in their books, claim this is so but they don't tell you the specific reason why. The answer is quite simple. In a multiway pot, AK is only good if there are no pp's in play. If you're in a pot with AK v. KJ v. 55, it comes out 3:2:4 as the rough equities. (Having AK suited adds 5%, almost making it a cointoss between 55 and AKs). In layman's terms, going all-in with AK in this spot is like calling a preflop all-in with 9 10 suited against AK. It's better to play two high cards from late position because it will allow you to better gauge the number of people who will call. Today, I would probably limp with AK from early position.

I'm pretty sure this is why Fnord stressed pocket pairs like TT and JJ; they're a MONSTER favorite in a hand like JJ v. KJ v. 55.

I forgot to give you the most crucial piece of advice...lol, I can't believe I left this out!!!!

The key to this strategy is to sit to the right of a maniacal player (ie. the most maniacal player at your given table). He doesn't have to be a kamikaze, but he needs to be the one leading out the most. Any time he bets into a pot preflop, you will see exactly how many people call his raise, and you will know exactly how fat every pot is before the flop. I would advise sitting down with a little bit more money if you're going to do this, because it gives you versatility in your strategy. For example, you're in middle position with AK. You limp, the kamikaze to your left throws out a moderate bet, button calls and SB call, and now you have some options for this strategy. If your stack is pretty small, your all-in will be called by all 3 unless the maniac reraises. However, if you've got a medium-small stack, you can assure yourself that it will be a shorthanded pot.

If you sit to a maniac's right, you can use the Moneymaking strategy at higher stakes tables [sit down with a much smaller buyin] because fewer players will enter the pot when the maniac raises, and then you can pot commit the maniac or caller with a dominating hand when you all-in.

the thing that im trying to do, is have there be as little intuition as possible needed to implement this strategy. i want someone to read this sit down at a table, and not even have to think about anything just follow the set guidelines and be able to make money.

Let me know about your all-in stats with AK , AKs pre-flop.
It seems like I have been getting killed with this in the formula.
I only go all in with AK,Aks and AQs if there are less than 4 people currently in the hand (including myself).

ai with ak seems to be about 50 50

session five:
-----------
starting br: $444.52
Total tables played: 13
#table at a time: 3
Times called:19
Times won:7
Times split:1
Times took blinds:7
Times all in:26
# of callers:22
Time played: 1hr 15 min
Bankroll : 433.68
Session $: -10.98
$/per hr: -8.67
$/per table: -.83
avg$per multitable per hour: -3.66
$/per called: -.50
$/per win: -1.57

lost most of my flips, couple bad

judgement calls cost me ~20 took 3-4 bad

beats. decent night could of been

a lot worse, but it also could of

been a lot better, im at fault for

being down 10$ instead of up

10-20$

i just got beat by one of you guys. i was new to the table and the first had i was in he went all in with his 10 bucks so i fold my rags. The next hand i get delt pockt 10s and once again im behind his all-in and thinks he just thought he could steal the blinds again and the fact that i had a pritty good hand i call and this is what happend...

#Game No : 1327139633
***** Hand History for Game 1327139633 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Monday, December 20, 20:17:34 EDT 2004
Table Table 11338 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: moneymaking player ( $10.75 )
Seat 4: player 2 ( $32.25 )
Seat 5: player 3 ( $23.75 )
Seat 6: player 4 ( $63.8 )
Seat 7: player 5 ( $49.75 )
Seat 9: player 6 ( $22.25 )
Seat 10: player 7 ( $52.5 )
Seat 3: Mjeffr0 ( $24.5 )
miliku posts small blind [$0.25].
Veach_ posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mjeffr0 [ Th Ts ]
player 3 folds.
player 4 folds.
>You have options at Crystal Ball Table!.
player 5 folds.
player 6 folds.
player 7 folds.
player 8 calls [$0.5].
moneymaking player is all-In.
player 10 has joined the table.
mjeffr0 calls [$10.25].
>You have options at Crystal Ball Table!.
Aquamancer has joined the table.
followtheq folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 9s, 9c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7s ]
moneymaking player shows [ Ah, Jd ] two pairs, jacks and nines.
Mjeffr0 shows [ Th, Ts ] two pairs, tens and nines.
miliku wins $22 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and nines.
Game #1327142080 starts.

session six:
-----------
starting br: $433.68
Total tables played:6
#table at a time: 3
Times called:7
Times won:2
Times split:1
Times took blinds:4
Times all in: 12
# of callers:10
Time played: 45
Bankroll :425.65
Session $: -8.03
$/per hr: -10.79
$/per table: -1.34
avg$per multitable per hour: -3.57
$/per called: -.80
$/per win: -4.03

lost 99 to aq, lost AA to kq offsuit.
lost kk to ax, and was dominated once.

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