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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 11:10am Post subject: I am the fish that sucked out on you
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Full House
Joined: 28 Nov 2004
Posts: 637
WPP: 175
Location: Location: Location
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Limit: $2/$4, 6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A Q
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG Caps, Hero calls (16.5:1), CO calls, Button calls, BB calls.
Flop: T 3 3 (20.5SB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls (25.5:2), CO calls.
Does anyone lead the flop?
As played, I was getting 12.75:1 on a call (I love this converter), so I figured that's enough with a backdoor straight and two overcards (as tainted as they may be). Does anyone fold here?
Turn: K (14.25BB, 4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, UTG calls, Hero calls (16.25:1), CO calls.
I can't fold the turn getting 16.25:1 on a 4-outer.
River: J (18.25BB, 4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button folds, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, CO Caps, UTG folds, Hero calls (27.25:1).
Ok, I hit the card I wanted and I lead out. I figured the chance that Button was playing something realtively weak in position, combined with the scary potential of this last card, made me think it might get checked through. Does anyone think going for a checkraise (or even a check/call) here would be good?
And looking at this now I see that my river 3-bet was probably just spewing given the full house and flush possibilities. The CO leading the flop, going to sleep, then suddenly waking back up on the river looks like a possible tens or jacks full, and UTG just calling the whole way makes it look scary too (does he have a low flush?). Does anyone think a 3-bet is warrented here (I don't).
Results:
Final pot: 28.25BB
For Bonus points what is your best guess at what CO had? |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 11:37am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 1968
WPP: 96
Location: 6max limit tables
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You would have to be a dumb ass to fold preflop to a cap when you 3 bet odds or no odds, you're seeing the flop...
On the flop with this much action I’d be willing to bet someone has a big PP TT to AA and someone played some shitty 3x s00ted I really think about 75+% of the time you are drawing dead as hell... to runners at very best...
You're pot stuck because of you over call on the flop to call the turn here...
and like I said I think you are drawing dead to a boat, FD, possibly split with AQ for 1/2 the pot... I don't 3 bet here... hell I usually muck the flop to be honest sometimes you know your cards are just not good to draw for...
Don’t be results oriented on this pot i9f you did happen to win it but I honestly think against that huge of a field PF I think I’m drawing dead when the flop is Th3s3c about 85% is my guess…
I mean against the one guy that caps pf his range is relatively small unless he is some huge maniac that caps almost anything, you figure AA-TT, AKs, AQs, AKo maybe a couple more here and there but that’s 98% of it most the time you have to adjust based on reads… against the range… you are a 70/30 dog to win… though in the other random shit of the 3 other players well, you’re apx 20% fav to win PF against 3 random hands and the one capers range…
On the flop, against the same players (3 random, 1 ranged out for a cap) you are now apx 9% to win the pot…
On the turn of a Kc you become even a worse dog to win this pot… you have apx 7.5% win… against now 2 random hands and 1 range of hands…
IMO, i muck the flop knowing i'm draw thin and possibly dead but that's me... |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 11:41am Post subject:
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HABITUAL LINE-STEPPER
Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 5251
WPP: 73
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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I suck at limit.
That being said, I would have check/called this river. I think CO has KK at best and JJ at worst.
You have like the 12th nuts. |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 12:28pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 15 Oct 2004
Posts: 666
WPP: 95
Location: Decatur, IL
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| I'm folding the flop. I need a read on button to figure out what he could possibly have, but I'm leaning toward AT or a 3 if he his a moron and CO is telling you that he has a pair by leading out after calling 3-cold preflop. Probably 99-KK or possibly ATs if he is a moron. Whatever they have, you don't have the best hand for sure and you don't have many outs to catch, because your outs are very very tainted. Once you call the flop, you are stuck in on the turn. I think leading the river is ok, but once CO raises, he is telling you for sure that he hit his JJs, so 3-betting is spewing. I really am very confident that CO has JJ like 90+% of the time given the way he played every street. |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 9:18pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 2584
WPP: 56
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| folding the flop because you'd have to be batshit crazy to think your overcards are good often enough |
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Posted: Sat, 01 Apr 2006, 8:41pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Nov 2004
Posts: 637
WPP: 175
Location: Location: Location
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Okay, the consensus is fold the flop.
BTW, CO had Q9. Yes, you read that right.
Also, UTG folded for the last two bets on the river but said in the chat window that he had AK (and the way he played the hand, he was probably telling the truth). So my outs to the ace were not really outs.
And no, I'm not going to be results-oriented about this win.
I know I messed this hand up--that's why I posted it. |
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