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Posted: Wed, 29 Mar 2006, 9:44pm Post subject: Was the price right for AT suited? |
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Straight
Joined: 03 Feb 2006
Posts: 138
WPP: 231
Location: NYC
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Did I have odds to call? (math my weak suit...)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) FTR Hand History Converter
MP1 ($14.55)
MP2 ($5.70)
CO ($9.45)
Hero ($14.85)
SB ($5.05)
BB ($15.70)
UTG ($12.05)
Preflop: Hero is Button with T , A.
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.4, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold.
Flop: ($0.90) Q , Q, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.6, SB calls $0.60.
Turn: ($2.10) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $4.05, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $8.15 |
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Posted: Wed, 29 Mar 2006, 10:12pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 03 Jul 2005
Posts: 1456
WPP: 79
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Check behind on the turn for a free shot at your draw and you won't need pot odds  Realistically, what can this guy call you with on the flop that will fold to a bet on the turn? QQ3 rainbow leaves no draws to chase.. |
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Posted: Wed, 29 Mar 2006, 11:27pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 1717
WPP: 74
Location: Soon to be TDot
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absolutly. you need to call $2, which would be a 20% investment towards a $8 pot. your odds on the flush are 16% (8 outs assuming he has one queen and not a full house).
To make it a justifiable call, your $2.05 call must be greater than 16% of the final pot.
(100 / 16) * 2.05 = how big final pot has to be = $12.81
so, call his bet and bet at least $2.40 on the river to make your turn call justifiable. |
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Posted: Wed, 29 Mar 2006, 11:42pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2005
Posts: 951
WPP: 66
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| you always have odds to call after a minraise |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 1:39am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Mar 2006
Posts: 2616
WPP: 84
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You're gonna bet $2 into a $10 pot, so 1/5. To chance to get your flush is 1/6. Now if that guy hadn't gone all-in your implied odds would have justified the call but here I dunno. Probably isn't a bluff and he really has the Q, but maybe if you add the chance that he doesn't have the Q but an overpair and your A gets 3 outs, then you can justify the call 
But seriously, you should have checked the turn. First get a free peak at your flush option, thén decide what to do. I don't see a need to want to take him out here... |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 5:25am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2005
Posts: 2989
WPP: 92
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| jackvance wrote: | You're gonna bet $2 into a $10 pot, so 1/5. To chance to get your flush is 1/6. Now if that guy hadn't gone all-in your implied odds would have justified the call but here I dunno. Probably isn't a bluff and he really has the Q, but maybe if you add the chance that he doesn't have the Q but an overpair and your A gets 3 outs, then you can justify the call
But seriously, you should have checked the turn. First get a free peak at your flush option, thén decide what to do. I don't see a need to want to take him out here... |
But if he does have the Q then one of your clubs could pair his kicker plus 3 is no good either. Thats alot of dirty outs. I think you can call it if he has a stack behind but im not so sure here. You are getting 4:1 but i dont think all your outs are clean.
If you are calling its for the chance he has a PP. Its quite possible he has 66+ on that board. |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 6:05am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Mar 2006
Posts: 2616
WPP: 84
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| Right, didn't think of any dirty outs there. |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 1:04pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 03 Feb 2006
Posts: 138
WPP: 231
Location: NYC
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I thought he was slowplaying QQ.
He had been limping for several revolutions (folding to raises) and then called very fast when I bet.
Checks the flop... but then calls immediately.
When he checked the turn, I TOTALLY should have checked it, but I was in "no free checking mode" (LEAK). Maybe I got some information that saved me some money, but ultimately I passed at a free River, which is WAY DUMB.
Of course, If he really had the Queens in the pocket, I just would have lost more money playing my A high flush like the nuts.
Thanks all.
-M |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 2:49pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Mar 2006
Posts: 2616
WPP: 84
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Hm, I don't think he has QQ here. Rather Qx.
The chance to get quads on the flop when you have a pp is 0.25%. So it'll happen once every 400 pps you play! I think it's hard to keep a level head when you will be instantly fearing the absolute worst abysmal-odds situation on any flop. Especially when there are a lot more higher chance and plausible hands that could explain his betting behavior. |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 3:04pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17133
WPP: 83
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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Check the turn. Free cards are almost as cool as free beer. |
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Posted: Thu, 30 Mar 2006, 5:11pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 7576
WPP: 71
Location: Petra Marklund FTW ^^^^
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omg u stack him if u hot the river after taking the free card
I have 50-100 hands like this from 10 and 20nl recently where opps just overplayer there hands horribly.
In fact i prob have enough from 100nl to prove that too. |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 2:58pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 03 Feb 2006
Posts: 138
WPP: 231
Location: NYC
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| Yes, must get over dislike of the check and learn to use it's EVIL POWER. |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 5:27pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2185
WPP: 80
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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| Don't bet when you don't know what to do with a reraise. Your bet is fine though if you reasonably could put him on a PP that thinks you missed. After the reraise his range is KQ/QJ/33 and your pot odds are good vs. that, so call. |
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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 8:18pm Post subject: |
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HABITUAL LINE-STEPPER
Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 5130
WPP: 73
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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| betting draws is negative EV at 10nl. The only reason you do it at all is to represent a non-draw, and throw off aware opponents, EDIT: of which there are none. |
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