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Posted: Thu, 16 Feb 2006, 10:40pm Post subject: HU hand - 95s
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Full House
Joined: 29 Oct 2005
Posts: 1101
WPP: 126
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This hand happened 4 hands after HU hand - T8
The only other information I have is that we were pretty much just completing and seeing a flop nearly 80% of hands. I probably raised preflop 3 times as often as he was (hand or not). Which is more a sign that he was not raising at all. Anyway, I was generally raising to ~ 3xBB whenever I raised, and he had always folded.
I have no qualms about the call preflop. I think that's mandatory.
***** Hand History for Game 3565521641 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $55 Buy-in Trny:20228283 Level:5 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, February 16, 22:13:12 ET 2006
Table Rhyban Glass (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 1: davidof2 ( $10780 )
Seat 10: Scuba Chuck ( $9220 )
Trny:20228283 Level:5
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba Chuck [ 5h 9h ]
Scuba Chuck raises [900].
davidof2 raises [1400].
Scuba Chuck calls [700].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, 6d, Th ]
davidof2 is all-In [8980]
Scuba Chuck ??? |
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Posted: Thu, 16 Feb 2006, 11:43pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 1177
WPP: 77
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He played it like a pretty big pair, maybe QQ, JJ, and given that he's been passive, it's even more likely. This seems to me like an easier fold than the 10 8 hand.
Are you thinking AK or 88 is likely? |
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Posted: Thu, 16 Feb 2006, 11:59pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 29 Oct 2005
Posts: 1101
WPP: 126
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| Rockymv wrote: | He played it like a pretty big pair, maybe QQ, JJ, and given that he's been passive, it's even more likely. This seems to me like an easier fold than the 10 8 hand.
Are you thinking AK or 88 is likely? |
Man, we think exactly opposite. I think this is the hand range here.
JJ+/AJ+. Since there are only 24 made hands, and 48 non-made hands, it made sense to call. My only flaw in this analysis would be to put him on too tight a range.
On the T8 hand, I'm not trying to influence people's decisions, but what hands do I beat? Am I just calling and hoping to tie? |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 12:12am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 1177
WPP: 77
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| I guess from the way you described him he seemed to passive to reraise PF and then push a missed flop with AJ or AQ. Against the average reasonably aggressive player I think I'm calling every time. |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 12:26am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 29 Oct 2005
Posts: 1101
WPP: 126
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| Rockymv wrote: | | I guess from the way you described him he seemed to passive to reraise PF and then push a missed flop with AJ or AQ. Against the average reasonably aggressive player I think I'm calling every time. |
I think some of that is out the door when 1/3 of your remaining stack is sitting in the middle. Furthermore, he had to think I was going to call his weak reraise with nearly anything. Essentially, he's going to be really happy I called 1/3 if the time, and he's getting to be really pissed when I call 2/3 of the time, IMO.
I am probably winning this hand 55% of the time here? If anybody knows for sure, based on my range, I'd be interested. |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 1:14am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 1177
WPP: 77
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Yeah you're winning around 55% of the time based on your range. Take out AJ and AQ and you're winning 44.2%, which I guess still dictates a call given the amount of chips in the pot. So it's probably a call.
Remove AK and it's a fold...but I think that's definitely within his range here. |
Last edited by Rockymv on Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 1:33am; edited 1 time in total
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 1:27am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 436
WPP: 145
Location: Bahamas
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| Scuba Chuck wrote: | | Rockymv wrote: | | I guess from the way you described him he seemed to passive to reraise PF and then push a missed flop with AJ or AQ. Against the average reasonably aggressive player I think I'm calling every time. |
I think some of that is out the door when 1/3 of your remaining stack is sitting in the middle. Furthermore, he had to think I was going to call his weak reraise with nearly anything. Essentially, he's going to be really happy I called 1/3 if the time, and he's getting to be really pissed when I call 2/3 of the time, IMO.
I am probably winning this hand 55% of the time here? If anybody knows for sure, based on my range, I'd be interested. |
poker stove:
71,280 games 0.015 secs 4,752,000 games/sec
Board: 9c 6d Th
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.6038 % 57.08% 00.52% { 9h5h }
Hand 2: 42.3962 % 41.87% 00.52% { JJ+, AJs+, AJo+ }
My thoughts: considering how this guy is playing heads up, why take the risk ? why not fold it and continue to steal from him if he will allow it. from my limited experience, headsup play is mostly about aggression but also patience.of course i've never played a 55 |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 8:19am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 29 Oct 2005
Posts: 1101
WPP: 126
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| thnwkd wrote: |
My thoughts: considering how this guy is playing heads up, why take the risk ? why not fold it and continue to steal from him if he will allow it. from my limited experience, headsup play is mostly about aggression but also patience.of course i've never played a 55 |
Are you considering the dead chips ~ 3,000 while making this decision to fold? Furthermore, do you think that HU play has a lot more cEV equity to the game rather than $EV?
Again, I am not completely adjusted to these new blind levels, I've only played 2 tourneys so far (1st and 8th). Perhaps this is more of a fold than I give it credit for. Need just one more draw card perhaps. At some higher blind level, I think it's a mistake not to call here. |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 8:22am Post subject:
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Strike 3
Joined: 07 Jul 2004
Posts: 3289
WPP: 119
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Easiest call of my life.
This is exactly the play an opponent makes with AK through AJ (and maybe KQ). Play is also made with 77 through 88 and QJ. Occasionally he has an overpair and is protecting against the slightly connected board, but not as often as he has one of the hands I mentioned previously.
I call and believe I have an edge. |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 2:40pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 1177
WPP: 77
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| dwarfman wrote: |
This is exactly the play an opponent makes with AK through AJ (and maybe KQ). |
Yeah but what about this opponent? You're convinced of this range even if he's been very passive?
I think this is a call as he'd have to have an extremely tight range to make it a fold....but I still think you're range is too loose given the information we have about this player.
Plus if he's doing this with 77 and overpairs then isn't he also doing it with A10 and A9? |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 3:17pm Post subject:
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Season VII
Joined: 04 Aug 2004
Posts: 2456
WPP: 100
Location: HotLanta
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| I agree with Dwarfman on the range of hands he could be playing and yes I would add A10, but am not as inclined to put A9. If he has been folding to a lot of aggression he was most likely looking for a "decent" hand to look you up with. The range that Dwarfman detailed are all "decent" hands heads up. |
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Posted: Fri, 17 Feb 2006, 4:04pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 29 Oct 2005
Posts: 1101
WPP: 126
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| GatorJH wrote: | | I agree with Dwarfman on the range of hands he could be playing and yes I would add A10, but am not as inclined to put A9. If he has been folding to a lot of aggression he was most likely looking for a "decent" hand to look you up with. The range that Dwarfman detailed are all "decent" hands heads up. |
Well, it's curious, you have to draw a line somewhere, on a range of hands that folds, then, and most importantly, a range of hands that just calls vs reraises. I think on average, the latter range must be pretty narrow. So adding a hand of the strength of AT has to be equivalent to adding some hands like 66 for a reraise, which I really don't think is that likely. Of course, this is all psychology, and I'm pulling comparative hands from the KS Chart |
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