Going for first

Anyone disagree?

NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:18728636 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Friday, December 30, 03:41:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 66887 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 6: PazzMan ( $3230 )
Seat 2: hustlinonU ( $970 )
Seat 1: badbadmonk ( $3800 )
Trny:18728636 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PazzMan [ Ac Qc ]
badbadmonk raises [400].
hustlinonU folds.
PazzMan is all-In.

I don't know if I like pushing.. maybe a reraise to 1200 then push the flop if you hit, that way it's not a do or die thing. Then you still have 2000 to work with...

i agree with 2+2 cpaz =D.

folding is bad.

My first post over there. It's a double post yeah. Embarassed

I push this vs 95% of opponents. There are some that have too small of a range here to make it a push. But standard play is puuuuuush.

This turns out to be a bad beat post but believe me the poker gods paid me back in a later tourney when my kj push against kq brought my a set of js. Laughing

badbadmonk calls [2830].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Td, 5h, 7s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
badbadmonk shows [ As, Tc ] a pair of tens.
PazzMan shows [ Ac, Qc ] high card ace.
badbadmonk wins 6560 chips from the main pot with a pair of tens.
PazzMan finished in third place and won $40.
PazzMan has left the table.

Even before seeing the results i didnt like the push. why is it standard?
sure u have a pretty strong starting hand but if he folds u gain just 700 chips, if he calls you are risking your tourny life on a race at best. It just happens that this hand you have him dominated.
this guy min raised, is that a steal attempt or a monster wanting action? of course you've played the whole tourny with him so you have a read on him.
with the stack sizes as they are i play poker with him and look to get it heads up where we're basically even stack. so i disagree, I reraise and go from there.

The first question is: Can he lay down medium strength hands. Unless you have him dominated, you do not want a call here (The results and bad beat not withstanding). Will he call with KJ, medium pockets? Those are not hands you want to see. Pop it preflop, and push if you hit, and/or see if you can outplay him. Risking everything here is not a good option, a small amount of the time you are a big favorite, a small ammount of the time you are a huge underdog, and the majority of the time its somewhat of a race (do you want to risk everything on a marginal 60-40, considering your stack and position?). You want to play for 1st, but this seems a little reckless to me (or maybe Im too tight, who knows?). Just my 2 cents.

This late in these tourneys it's a standard steal attempt from a lot of players. My read was this guy was raising Ax and a lot of time Kx. I figured I had some folding equity because I didn't see it as a minraise monster hand. (It may actually have been his plan as I think he really valued his hand) If he had minraised in round 4 I would be suspicious but not here. I have to be confident in my br to make this play and not play scared. I could have played more conservatively and maybe should have but sometimes you have to push back. I put him to the decision and he ended up making the wrong one. That's the point right? Twisted Evil

I would push. You very likely have the guy dominated. And if he turns over KJs? Who cares it's a 60/40 not a coinflip. You probably can't get him to throw away pockets either. But that's nearly a coinflip (for small pairs, 45/55 for big pairs). AND he has a 5.9% chance of being dealt a pocket at all, the push is definitely a good play (combined with your read of course).

Harringtonize this sucker: *All numbers are subject to rounding
Ax or Kx 13.5%
pp 6%
Chance he's holding Ax/Kx vs. pp = 2 : 1

His starting hand =
Ax 36.8%. you are 75% to win, ev= 27.6%
AK 3.2% You are 30% to win, ev= .96 lets call it 1%
Kx 40% you are 65% to win, ev= 26%

under pp 19% you are 47% to win, ev= 9%
over pp (AA,KK,QQ) 1%? you are 26% to win, ev= .26%

ev of this play? About 63.8% for you to win. (27.6+.96+26.+9.26)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
63.8% of the time you are 80% to win = 51.04%
[.51*$100] = $51 +40 (you already won this $40) = $91
36.2% of the time you are out = $40 (this is the $40 from above, it's yours anyway, see?)
total ev = $131

If you call
hit the flop (and get all the money in and win the hand)
13.2% * 80% to win = $10.56 +40 = $50.56
miss and fold 87% = 37.8% to win (3030/8000) = $37.80 + 40 = 77.80
total ev = 128.36

131 - 128.36 = +2.64
2.04/22 = +12% kind close to 13.8% there's room to find it in there I'm sure.

Push.

**If this is incorrect please tell me now, and save Cpaz from my lunacy.

Wow, that's some nice work. Thanks Island. I wish my brain wasn't too lazy to do all that work. Smile

Those numbers are inaccurate unless you think opponent raises any 2 cards. The percentages of him having PP/Ax/Kx go up as long as you don't think he's raising with 25o and hands like that. You can't just go on the straight starting hand probabilities unless your opponent is completely random. Villain is minraising here, and minraising for a reason. A pocket pair would be one of those reasons, and must be treated as such.

I ditto the reraise to 1200 or something preflop and pushing the flop if you hit. You don't hit or pick up the flush draw, it's time to get out and attack the small stack.

ditto everything dwarfman said.

question

if villian open pushes, is there any way ur folding this hand?

are people really advocating putting over 1/3 of their stack in the middle to allow them to fold if the flop doesnt hit them?????
what hand exactly are you afraid of your opponent holding here?
There are only 2 Ax hands that are ahead of you (AK AA), youre even money against JJ and down, and are ahead of everything else. there is one player that is close to going out. this seems like the perfect situation to push around an edge, especially an edge that will most likely turn out to be a large edge. How many people overvalue any A three handed? I know I do. How about any K. fewer, but as a steal attempt its not bad.
A reraise to 1200 seems to be more of an information bet (at least it is as its being discussed here). The only reason to raise to 1200 instead of push is for value. If you are confident taking A high to showdown and plan on putting all of your chips in the middle on any flop, then a value raise might be in order, otherwise the push looks great.

Does anyone include/exclude anything from the range I put him on here?

Suggestions?? Certain Percentages for each?

50 35 20 10
i think is wat i have.

however, this isnt as optimal as
picking specific hands,
people dont value hands according to the K+S list, which is how eastbay has the % structured.

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