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Posted: Fri, 03 Sep 2004, 2:34pm Post subject: Math/odds brain-scratcher...
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One Pair
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Posts: 17
WPP: 106
Location: Dallas, TX
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Read recently that the average dealers' hand in blackjack ends up being around 18.5. So that if you were guaranteed that each of your hands played would total 18, you would end up a loser in the long run. (By the same token, if your hand was a 19 every time, you would end up a winner in the long run).
This got me thinking - what would be the "break-even" point for NL Hold Em hands, played to showdown? Probably no way on earth to calculate this with all the variables, but any ideas?
Would you think a straight? Maybe a set? Or maybe it would be more specific - a set of 7's would lose on average, but a set of 8's would win?
Not sure if any of this makes any sense, but I'll throw it out there anyway. |
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Posted: Fri, 03 Sep 2004, 2:39pm Post subject:
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Administrator
Joined: 04 Dec 2003
Posts: 1742
WPP: 218
Location: on my laptop
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In blackjack it is important to note the implications of the player being forced to act before the dealer. In other words, if both of you go over 21 it is not a tie, you lose because you went first.
As far as the caliber of the winning hand in hold'em, it depends on the number of players staying in until the river. If you compare the winning hands of 100 rounds where all 10 players stayed in until the river versus the winning hands of 100 rounds where only 2 players stayed in until the river then the caliber of the winning hands will be quite different. Obviously the 10 player rounds will require better hands on average. |
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Posted: Fri, 03 Sep 2004, 2:43pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 313
WPP: 124
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| Ill take a stab and say Q2o or J2o would break even on blind play (check all the way to the river) HtoH. I heard from somewhere K2o was a slight favorite vs any random hand. |
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Posted: Fri, 03 Sep 2004, 3:30pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2003
Posts: 1943
WPP: 78
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Posted: Sun, 05 Sep 2004, 7:12am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Posts: 4212
WPP: 64
Location: Stars $16 and $27 Sngs
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I would say there is no one definite average winning hand
It depends on the number and nature of the players.
If you assume 10 players all playing all hands down to the river then it ican be calculated.
You also have to consider pot stealing and hands that do not go down to the river. |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Sep 2004, 10:18am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Apr 2004
Posts: 1522
WPP: 82
Location: England UK
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According to my Spreadsheet t8o and j5s are exactly 50% winners Vs one random hand.
Just to show the effect of 1 extra person in a hand damaging your chances of winning. AKs is a slight favourite 50.7% Vs 2 random hands. |
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