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Posted: Wed, 05 Oct 2005, 12:30pm Post subject: playing vs someone on a hot streak
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Full House
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 1328
WPP: 94
Location: Washington, D.C.
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this post is not about tells but it is about "playing the player" to some degree.
i often find myself at a table where some lucky fish is playing every single hand "just to see a flop" and catching all kinds of incredible straights, trips, and two-pairs to crack all the "+EV" hands. i'm used to having my AA or KK cracked at a loose table where many people are in the pot, but what i'm talking about here is a situation where ONE PERSON cracks hand after hand after hand and ends up with all the chips.
now, i know it is statistically incorrect to say that the person "is" on a hot streak, since the future cannot be predicted. you're supposed to just say the person "has been" on a streak, and this is not supposed to change your play on the next hand. yet my experience, or perception, is that such people can often remain "hot" for up to an hour at a time.
for example, there was a guy at my table playing any two cards to the flop and he even raised (and capped) with 53o on the button just because he figured his cards were more live than everyone else's. he caught two pair and cracked my QQ. then he caught trips with J5s, then flopped a straight with 62o.
at this casino, a kill pot was declared after anyone won two hands in a row, and this guy had won three in a row. i was dealt KTs, flopped KT9, and ended up 5-betting the guy, who had limped in from the kill blind. i figured that statistically, he could not possibly have flopped the best hand 4 times in a row, so i kept banging away. he had QJ for yet another nut straight on the flop.
had it been anyone else, i might have slowed down when he 3bet me on the flop, but because he had been outrageously lucky for the last few hands, i figured the odds were against him having a better hand than my top 2pr. this ended up hosing me in an extremely expensive kill pot.
there's no sense getting mad at a guy who plays like this, especially when he's playing from a blind. who's going to fold QJ before the flop? he was simply extremely lucky. and yet this put me on unbelievable tilt. sure, this was a situation that was within the realm of the laws of probability. but that's not what it felt like. if i didn't know any better, i'd think he was cheating. but i don't believe that.
my question is, how do you adjust your strategy, if at all, when playing against someone who just cannot be stopped? this is not a rare occurrence for me. it seems to happen at about 1/2 of the loose games i play.
the laws of statistics say you should not change anything because past events have no bearing on the future. but my personal experience (or my memory of it) would seem to suggest the contrary.
please discuss.
ChezJ |
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Posted: Wed, 05 Oct 2005, 1:55pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6696
WPP: 66
Location: Somewhere in middle america
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poker is a long term game.
You can't beat someone who flops the nuts for an hour, nor can you read two pair on a J74 board in a raised pot. About the only other thing I can think to say is move to NL so you can more properly punish people who are playing hands 'because his cards were more live'. |
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Posted: Wed, 05 Oct 2005, 2:29pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 1968
WPP: 96
Location: 6max limit tables
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Nice post Chez J!
Just hope you can wait them out and when they go cold they still chase and pay you off and they don't pull the hit and run I see a ton of donkey ass players do. Ohh I’m loosing again later! FUCK there goes my money and my +EV for a table at times... at 2/4 online I have seen great tables with 6 calling stations turn into 10 sharks in a matter of 30min because the fish either bust out or win and run...
Poker is a long term game true but you need to maximize profit in the short term and minimize looses. I personally think poker is a game of both short term and long term play, in the short term you sometimes have to adjust correct long term strategy to max or min looses short term do to reads mostly...
I think taking a solid long term ABC game and molding it short term could probably save you money and make you more money long term... Always know thy self and thy opponent… |
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Posted: Wed, 05 Oct 2005, 3:10pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6696
WPP: 66
Location: Somewhere in middle america
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| Quote: | | Poker is a long term game true but you need to maximize profit in the short term and minimize looses. |
 Would you like to define this? Examples?
Here's the part of your post that makes sense:
| Quote: | | Just hope you can wait them out |
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Posted: Wed, 05 Oct 2005, 3:20pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 11 Aug 2005
Posts: 336
WPP: 136
Location: They were suited!
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| drmcboy wrote: | | move to NL so you can more properly punish people |
I agree with Dr. McBoy here, NL is a lot more profitable against players who just instinctively want to see every flop, showdown, etc.
I played live at my local Indian Casino one night and this guy kept making flush after flush after flush, calling from EP with 6-4 of diamonds etc. and hitting the flop, over and over. I called him "flush guy," he was pretty friendly due to his extreme luck.
I looked down at pocket aces facing a raise from flush guy. We capped preflop.
The flop came 9-9-A. I proceeded to bet into flush guy. He made a flush on the turn and since there was no raising limit, I won about $100 from flush guy after a raising war.
No mercy.  |
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Posted: Wed, 05 Oct 2005, 3:41pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 13 Aug 2004
Posts: 1968
WPP: 96
Location: 6max limit tables
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| drmcboy wrote: | | Quote: | | Poker is a long term game true but you need to maximize profit in the short term and minimize looses. |
Would you like to define this? Examples?
Here's the part of your post that makes sense:
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I'll try to get more in-depth and make more out of my thought here...
What i mean is in the short term you need to take on the variance of the game, there for when say i player is running hot you adjust correct mathematical play to minimize looses when you think he sucked out on you, this becomes even more profitable in NL over time then it would in limit... When say you are on a bit of a cold run you have to force yourself not to over play hands in situations where mathematically it but very marginally correct to call rather then fold... minimizing looses to players on extremely hot runs using smart play and reads will turn around and give you a higher physical year...
In short term Doyle says to play your rushes, this is to maximize profit for a given session, so you would call in more marginal situations where it's a toss up of fold or call... you take your hand one extra street for instance where normally you might fold it's very situational to be able to pull this off...
I guess an example of this would be in a NL game you have flopped a FD the guy beats say just enough where you implied odds are you could call but your not just there with implied odds or mathematically your should probably fold... now say you have been getting hit up side the head with the deck I think you might peal one off there where on a avg to cold run you might muck you might call depends on your reads... given no reads on a hot run peal on off see what happens... Where $$ lacks image makes up if you hit on the turn... especially if it's a good player making the flop bet... all in all with your run of cards and an image booster it's a +EV play not saying do it all the time but if you're not getting enough action on your hot run of cards chase one and show or bluff one and show you are ultimately trying to max your +EV long term each session...
This goes the opposite way as well the more you can shrink your cold runs and looses your move -EV up some... like say mathematically a hand is -EV but it's say -1.86, in the short term you can curve that up a little bit to even -1.00 you make money... it's a backwards way of looking at curving mathematics in a small samples...
EV is based on the law of large numbers however with small samples and reads and adjusting mathematical play based on reads will curve the math slightly in short term thus making you money long term...
In other words I think math only takes you so far in this game, to take it to the next step you need "playing the player" and situational hands...
Everyone knows how to play AA and KK... how do you play a 9Ts OOP (you checked the BB) against a solid opponent that limped in MP1 board read 2 9 Q rainbow? The marginal situations are where this concept comes in to play most often... My theory on this is that against loose bad players that don’t know much about poker it’s easy to accomplish they check call down any pair for the most part raise only very strong hands, and chase to much w/o odds… putting yourself in marginal situations with these players depends on odds no way around it no reason to get cute when the math way works… I’m talking about curving it to players that are avg to solid and bad players on hot runs… If a bad player is playing any two cards I pick a hand that is typically +EV or –EV that I think I can obtain odds to play on and play a 100% post flop game… to curve mathematics I the short term, you most be willing to gamble in some spots, and fold solid hands in other based on reads on your opponents… poker players always talk about maximizing profit and minimizing looses well it basically is talking about taking the math and taking that and reads in situational hands… to achieve best possible long term winnings…
i hope that helps some? |
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