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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 3:42pm Post subject: can someone run the odds on this absurd hand???? |
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Two Pair
Joined: 12 Aug 2005
Posts: 35
WPP: 680
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PokerStars Game #2689553412: Tournament #12956842, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/09/29 - 18:32:59 (ET)
Table '12956842 122' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: fatbot (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: DealindaNutz (3000 in chips)
Seat 3: paytontaro (3420 in chips)
Seat 4: hawnboy73 (1480 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: Falcon 1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: hardluckcash (1100 in chips)
Seat 7: tsang (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: *thehu$tler (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: johearn5 (1500 in chips)
hawnboy73: posts small blind 10
Falcon 1: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to paytontaro [Ad As]
hardluckcash: folds
tsang: calls 20
*thehu$tler: folds
johearn5: folds
fatbot: folds
DealindaNutz: raises 900 to 920
paytontaro: raises 900 to 1820
hawnboy73: folds
Falcon 1: folds
tsang: folds
DealindaNutz: calls 900
*** FLOP *** [8c 7s Kd]
DealindaNutz: bets 1180 and is all-in
paytontaro: calls 1180
*** TURN *** [8c 7s Kd] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [8c 7s Kd Qs] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DealindaNutz: shows [Tc Ah] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
paytontaro: shows [Ad As] (a pair of Aces)
paytontaro said, "omg"
DealindaNutz said, "omg!"
paytontaro said, "omg"
DealindaNutz collected 6050 from pot
paytontaro said, "omg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6050 | Rake 0
Board [8c 7s Kd Qs Jc]
Seat 1: fatbot folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: DealindaNutz showed [Tc Ah] and won (6050) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 3: paytontaro (button) showed [Ad As] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: hawnboy73 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Falcon 1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: hardluckcash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: tsang folded before Flop
Seat 8: *thehu$tler folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: johearn5 folded before Flop (didn't bet) |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 4:00pm Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 08 Sep 2005
Posts: 37
WPP: 171
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| he needed a T and one of the remaining Aces which is (4/47) *(2/46) or 8/2162 = .37 % to win. You were .9963/.0037 = 269.27:1 to win! Dam that sucked! |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 5:07pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 812
WPP: 92
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
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Wrong forum, and perhaps not as bad a beat as you thought. Although still horrible, not incomprehensible.
| Code: | Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 8c Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad 939 94.85 51 5.15 0 0.00 0.948
Tc Ah 51 5.15 939 94.85 0 0.00 0.052 | |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 8:34pm Post subject: no i meant |
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Two Pair
Joined: 12 Aug 2005
Posts: 35
WPP: 680
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| oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop, i meant postflop what were his chances of sucking 0ut on me? he needed running tens or running jack queen right? |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 8:45pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6171
WPP: 65
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^
lol
Board:
Dead:
| Code: | equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 91.2860 % 90.68% 00.61% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 08.7140 % 08.11% 00.61% { AhTc } | |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 8:48pm Post subject: Re: no i meant |
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 04 May 2005
Posts: 109
WPP: 91
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| payt0n wrote: | | oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop, i meant postflop what were his chances of sucking 0ut on me? he needed running tens or running jack queen right? |
It says in his little log thing that the board cards are taken into consideration. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 9:24pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 29 Apr 2004
Posts: 1918
WPP: 120
Location: St. Louis
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| Quote: | | oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop |
obviously you don't understand... |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Sep 2005, 11:46pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 26 Jun 2005
Posts: 480
WPP: 113
Location: Manhattan & Boston
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| atrocious beat but i still love you |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 9:47am Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 21 Sep 2005
Posts: 40
WPP: 115
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Where can I get this code you guys are using?
Anyhow, here's how I've worked it out:
T,T = 3/47*2/46 = .2775%
Q,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
9,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
J, 9 or Q = 4/47*8/46 = 1.48%
For a grand chance of 3.2377%
My guess here is that I couldn't think of other ways he could lose. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 10:05am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 887
WPP: 146
Location: Dallas, TX
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 5:10pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6171
WPP: 65
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 10:46pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 24 Dec 2004
Posts: 236
WPP: 263
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| stranglin wrote: | Where can I get this code you guys are using?
Anyhow, here's how I've worked it out:
T,T = 3/47*2/46 = .2775%
Q,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
9,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
J, 9 or Q = 4/47*8/46 = 1.48%
For a grand chance of 3.2377%
My guess here is that I couldn't think of other ways he could lose. |
You have a few mistakes.
First, do not divide by 47 and 46. Seven cards are known, your 2, his 2 and the 3 on the board. Divide by 45 and 44, that moves the odds up a bit.
Second, you are backing into the odds of Q,J vs J,Q and J,9 vs 9,J. Let's try to be more explicit about the odds.
Third: 9,6 gives him a win as well.
So ...
T,T = 3/45*2/44 = .3030%
Q,J or J,Q= 8/45*4/44 = 1.6161%
9,J or J,9 = 8/45*4/44 = 1.61.61%
9,6 or 6,9 = 8/45*4/44 = 1.6161
For a total of 5.1513% which matches what Poker Stove came up with. |
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Posted: Sun, 02 Oct 2005, 1:54pm Post subject: Re: no i meant |
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Full House
Joined: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 812
WPP: 92
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
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| payt0n wrote: | | oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop, i meant postflop what were his chances of sucking 0ut on me? he needed running tens or running jack queen right? |
As Barry Greenstein would say "you were drawing dead from the minute you sat down" |
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