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Posted: Thu, 22 Sep 2005, 9:18am Post subject: Playing Players with low W$SD |
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Two Pair
Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 27
WPP: 195
Location: London, England
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Using GT+ as I play on Party, I quite often come across players with stats such as the following:
25% / 3% / 1.15 / 24% / 28%, with 300+ hands in the db.
where the bolded figure is the % of showdowns the player won.
Players with these stats aren't complete fish, but the W$SD percentage is aberrant (most decent or better players are around the 50% mark. They come up as a "showdown muppet" on the autorate though. They don't see enough showdowns to be a true calling station--they just lose an inordinate amount of the time when they do go to showdown.
How would you adjust your play against such a player? Do you feel it is reasonable to conclude that the player fast-plays their good hands, and stays in a little too much with marginal hands? |
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Posted: Thu, 22 Sep 2005, 12:54pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 1968
WPP: 96
Location: 6max limit tables
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I have no idea what your stats represent exception of the bolded stat... Use poker ace hud free and much nicer then GT+!
Anyhow, assuming that you stats are in this order VP$IP / PFR / total AF / W$@SD...
This player looks extremely tight passive and is only going to show down with the nuts or second nuts... easy player to push right off a hand...
I don't find the W$@SD to be all that helpful however I do find the W2SD extremely helpful...
Poker Ace can be found here: www.pokeracesoftware.com |
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Posted: Thu, 22 Sep 2005, 2:43pm Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 27
WPP: 195
Location: London, England
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The stats are as you say (but there's WTSD in there as well, between AF and W$SD).
I'm used to players who are tight passive and tend just to show down with the nuts--the problem is, this class of players are showing down hands that aren't the nuts (and losing).
Also, I notice your location says "limit tables". I'm a No Limit player and these are No Limit stats. In NL, 21% WTSD is not particularly tight postflop (I don't think. Mine is almost the same, but my W$SD is 49%) |
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Posted: Thu, 22 Sep 2005, 2:56pm Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 27
WPP: 195
Location: London, England
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| Well, in the meantime I altered the 'Showdown Muppet' category in PT from WTSD>15% to WTSD>23%. This was meant to be a fish-finding category (with a nice yellow smiley face), but was catching the players I've described in this thread in the net too... |
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Posted: Fri, 23 Sep 2005, 12:12pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3566
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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I've always been interested in people's WTSD and their W$SD percentages just as much as their VPIP and PFR. I think its severely overlooked.
We know:
A) We make money when our opponents make mistakes
B) Approx. 30% WTSD and 50% W$SD is good
So it stands to reason that if our opponent is going to showdown around 30% of the time, but only winning money 30% of the time, they are taking second best and dominated hands to showdown about 20% too often. So to put that in numbers, whereas a good player would win at showdown 5 out of 10 times, this guy is winning only three.
This is HUGELY exploitable.
Simply put, you don't need as great of a hand against this opponent. Top pair with a good kicker is almost always going to be good enough, as he's likely to be calling down with second pair or worse to 'keep you honest'. Top pair top kicker or better is a monster.
Think of it this way, if he's winning 30% of the showdowns, he's losing 70% of his showdowns. This guy is a goldmine, and I would take every opportunity to get this guy heads up with me. |
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Posted: Fri, 23 Sep 2005, 3:36pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3566
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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| pokerfanatic01 wrote: |
This player looks extremely tight passive and is only going to show down with the nuts or second nuts... easy player to push right off a hand...
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Thats not at all what this player is. 24% went to showdown = normal over the range of hands in a PT database, say max 300. Its his W$SD that is so incredibly low. He's going to showdown about the same as everyone else (a little less, i'll agree, but thats probably sample size variance) but is losing 7 out of 10 times at showdown. Now the player (you) have to decide if he's getting sucked out or if he's playing poorly and taking second best hands to showdown.
Low W$SD = High profit for you. |
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Posted: Fri, 23 Sep 2005, 3:54pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17619
WPP: 82
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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| I had a run of 400 hands last night where I had a W$@SD under 30 and was wondering if I was folding too much given the way some of those hands played out... |
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Posted: Fri, 23 Sep 2005, 5:22pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Mar 2005
Posts: 3566
WPP: 98
Location: Your place or my place
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Your W$@SD was low, so you thought you were folding too much?
Shouldn't the inverse be true? Theoretically they should be inversely proportional, in that..
You take more hands to showdown, you'll win less due to playing weaker hands.
You take less hands to showdown, you win more due to playing stronger hands.
I think a distinction should definitely be made between running bad and playing poorly. Getting rivered repeatedly will definitely drop your W$ASD. And thats something to notice in your opponent. Is he taking hands to showdown that he should? Is he simply getting sucked out, or is he running bad?
Edit: I believe I see what fnord is getting at, but I'm not entirely sure how to articulate it clearly in this context. I take it that essentially you folded too often when you probably shouldn't have, probably due to playing against idiots.
But, this shouldn't effect your W$@SD because you simply wouldnt have gone to showdown in the first place. |
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