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Posted: Fri, 31 Mar 2006, 9:51pm Post subject: MTT variance..
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 79
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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.. is a bitch.
My stats so far:
# played: 189 (varying from 10-50 R&A's to 25-35 FO's, mostly small fields)
total buyins: $11245
total rake: $509.50
total price money: $11792.89
total profit: $38.89
ROI: 0% 
# top 3: 6 (2 wins, a 10 Limit FO (300$) and a 30$R&A (3.6K), 2 2nds, 2 3rds)
# FT: 17 (9%)
# ITM: 25 (13%)
avg # entrees: 285 (median 199)
avg position: 92
# finishes in top 10%: 27 (14%)
# finishes in top 20%: 59 (31%)
# finishes in top 30%: 97 (51%)
# finishes in top 50%: 156 (83%)
Longest no ITM streaks: 35 (still running..), 25, 20, 15
Profit graph:
Main strengths: push/fold strategy, early TAG, late selective agression.
Main weaknesses: medium stack strategy (M 8-15), read-dependent moves.
Should I play bigger fields? Just quit MTT's? Other suggestions? I would like to see some stats of experienced players (with bigger sample sizes). |
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Posted: Sat, 01 Apr 2006, 1:12am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 22 Jun 2005
Posts: 2195
WPP: 52
Location: NZ
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Posted: Mon, 03 Apr 2006, 10:09am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 79
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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Wow, interesting replies so far.
There's no one who keeps stats? |
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Posted: Mon, 03 Apr 2006, 10:59am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7935
WPP: 67
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I couldn't think of much to reply with. I'll try and remember to post my stats when I go home.
Even through 189 isn't so bad.
I will say the smaller the field, the tougher it tends to be, although I can't back that up with numbers. Plus you often need to win to get a nice bump relative to BR - my two best cashes were not wins.
Why are you playing mostly smaller field events?
Are you sure early tag is a strength? It probably depends on stack sizes in the events you play but early I'm NOT raising AQ in most spots and I AM looking to play 33 almost anywhere. |
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Posted: Mon, 03 Apr 2006, 12:27pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7935
WPP: 67
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# played: 350 - varying from 10-30 R&A's to 10-150 FO's, mostly 200-400 fields on UB or 500 + on PS - just moved money to PP and Paradise recently.
total buyins: $13,363
total prize money: $21,219
total profit: $7,583
ROI: 56%
# top 3: 5
Wins - 30 FO on UB, 5 rebuy on UB
Big $$ - 2nd 100 FO on UB, 4k, 4th 150 FO on PS, 5k
# FT: 19 (5%)
# ITM: 44 (13%)
avg # entrees: 695
I will say I went through a stretch of many OOTMs
that I still hope was bad variance that I will see
repaid. I think tracking them exactly is a leak.
I think you're over worrying a bit. I'm made two FTs
in the 10 RB on stars - I took awful beats at both
that, if those hands had held, my profit could be
double or triple what it is now. OTOH, I still
remember beating an AK with my AJ in that UB 100 I
took second in. It will happen. Staying even
through 200 events IMO shows you're good enough.
Plus, you'll get better, as long as you don't let this
get to you. |
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Posted: Mon, 03 Apr 2006, 12:56pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 79
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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| drmcboy wrote: | | Even through 189 isn't so bad. |
It's probably variance, I see enough donkey moves at the tables so I must have a skill edge.
| drmcboy wrote: | | I will say the smaller the field, the tougher it tends to be, although I can't back that up with numbers. Plus you often need to win to get a nice bump relative to BR - my two best cashes were not wins. |
I'm not sure how field size affects cash distribution.. I guess smaller fields mean lower ITM% and lower ROI. But does the variance increase too? Are 50-100 buy-in swings common at 1K+ fields?
| drmcboy wrote: | | Why are you playing mostly smaller field events? |
I play mostly at Prima; the fields are usually only 100-200. Getting to the FT within 3 hours is fun though.
| drmcboy wrote: | | Are you sure early tag is a strength? It probably depends on stack sizes in the events you play but early I'm NOT raising AQ in most spots and I AM looking to play 33 almost anywhere. |
Well, it depends. I'm limping anything with potential at level 1/2. I'm raising AQ OOP only if it's a FO or a tight rebuy table. I think I play the first levels reasonably well (essentially counterplay vs. the donkeys).
Anyway, I'm not really worried if I can beat MTT's or not, it's just that it seems a waste of time to play them compared to cashgames (higher hourly rate, lower variance). So maybe I should quit playing them regularly (just a few fun tourneys a week, qualifiers etc). |
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Posted: Mon, 03 Apr 2006, 1:06pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7935
WPP: 67
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I would certainly see that the take I've seen from most players who are successful at both is that NL Ring has better hourly rate.
On small vs large fields - it's an arguement I have with myself too. The thing is, most tourneys I have played in the stacks are very shallow at the FT, and whoever wins the showdowns wins the FT. If that is the case, bigger tourny FTs are much better, because the payout is a nice bump to your BR even if you don't win. FT varience is the ultimate suck. When do I get to go back to the FT to pick up the equity I left there! The other side, of course, is it's harder to get to the FT.
I built my roll in SNGs. Expanded roll in MTTs. I'd like to play MTTs full time, but for times I don't have the hours for MTT I'm sort of sampling between NL ring, L ring and SNGs. So far NL ring is the winner but all have their pluses. |
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Posted: Mon, 03 Apr 2006, 1:25pm Post subject:
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i rarely, if ever, get pms
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 4317
WPP: 178
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I think I make more money overall playing cash games but the big cashes in MTTs do wonders for your BR and your confidence, and help you move up in Limits in your cash game which (hopefully) helps you make more in your cash games as well.
And fish - to be perfectly honest, I have been keeping horrible records until recently. That has now changed, so by the end of this year I should have a small sample to post. |
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Posted: Tue, 04 Apr 2006, 12:47am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 3462
WPP: 153
Location: Ellicott City, MD
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total buyins: $5190.8
total prize money: $7513.36
total profit: $2322.56
ROI: 45%
# top 3: 1
Wins - None
Big $$ - 3rd in $40k ($3.8k); 7th in $10 R/A ($1.19K)
# FT: 5 (3%)
# ITM: 28 (16%)
# Played: 178
Like char, I took a stab at stakes a tad too high when my BR jumped up...ROI and profit would have been a bit nicer if I hadn't...or if AA had freakin' held one of those three times on the bubble of the Party Specials  . |
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Full Tilt Poker FTOPS XIV - Event 9 $500+$35 NLH Heads Up
