Longterm ROI question

I found an article at 2p2 about turbos and ROIs that was really offsetting. It said that a really good ROI for turbos was 10-12%. It didn't mention a buyin for this, it was just in general. I don't play turbos but it seems to me that 10-12% is a very low ROI for an above average player at the $6+.50s. I am curious if you think that $6+.50s are beatable for 25%+ ROI and how high it could go at the $15+1s.

I believe 10-12% is good for $6.50s.

They are harder to beat because in turbos you have to play push/fold poker, and people call much wider ranges so that you get sucked out on much more.

I.e. say you push with the best hand and are called 3 times in a turbo. Say you made 3 great pushes these times and found yourself 70% to win all three times. P(you win all three) = .7*.7*.7 = 343/1000 ~= 1/3.

I.e. 66% of the times you make 3 great pushes you are OUT. That goes up to 75% after 4 and so on. Now factor in people calling your crap with Ax or T8o and all the times you find yourself up against a monster or in a coin flip, and its easy to imagine how lower level ROI's are harder to maintain in turbos.

Im really coming round to the idea of playing the slower games to allow for more skill. Still you are reading the ramblings of a currently losing player!!

this is tough because good/lucky players running at 25% are going to move up before they get a decent sample.

i believe that, im 11.77% over 282 $16 turbos. ginger made some sense of it. thing with turbos is you can play more for more money per hour.

1 regular=maybe 2 turbos

I had the OP ask this question for me. I'm currently playing the 6's but have enough money to move on up to the 15's. I already have about 80 tournaments at the 15's and am in the red for about 100$. My question was basically if I move up to the 15's can I expect a semi decent ROI compared to my current ROI of 36% (Over 180 trnys)at the 6's or should I stay where I am until I can build a deeper roll and then take the shot?

Also I relize I'm probably running very well right now. So can I expect my ROI to drop drastically soon?

Thanks for the help,
Kitty

do you really care more about ROI than profit? Why?

Yes, move up.

I'm not buying better players = less varience.

I also think you'll turn a pretty nice profit if you could really get your money in in this spot every SNG you played. You're getting an OK price and when you win, assuming full stacks, you have a massive CL with 6 or less players left. Sign me up.

Better players = less variance IN TURBOS. You need to push to stay alive at some point. Better players may understand that you are stealing but don't risk their tournaments on it. So your fold equity is better. Better players may mean that they are harder to beat, but I would call that a measure of skill not variance.

Variance implies that you should have won there but you lost. Like when Aces are cracked by sixes and such. It will happen in poker thats the nature of the game, but at the lower levels it happens more because people protect their sixes and treat them like aces.

I hear you all asking "isn't it a poker players dream to always have our big pushed hands called?" and yes thats true but in turbos:

a) You push a wider range
b) Getting sucked out on once is usually enough to end the tournament
c) Bad players sometimes have good hands.

So the fact that lower stakes have bad players who call with far too many bad hands increases VARIANCE. Now at higher levels im sure the increased skill of the opposition reduces your ROI but this is not variance. This is getting beat by good/better players.

I wouldnt say things will be easier moving up. I don't agree with that. If a player is better than a certain level that means he consistently wins there. End.

I don't like turbos because I just don't get any satisfaction out of push fold poker anymore. They are better for profits as they are quicker to play and have healthier pools but I don't think im made for them. You just wait around for a favorable situation and push. Then 30-60% of the time you lose and its goodnight vienna. Played three in a row this weekend with a total of only 6 hands (Av 2 per tourny)!

Its back to the standards for me and cash. More time for poker skill to tell. If you analyse most of the pushes I've made over the last 20 tournies they are mostly Hugely +EV so I understand the discipline, i just don't have the temperament or the desire to play exclusively shove/fold poker anymore. I find it demoralising and therefore a waste of time. I want to enjoy poker and be profitable, it is still a passtime for me and not my living.

I mentioned in one of my recent posts that id go through all of my recent HH and to be honest on average they were 6 or 7 hands long with a bad beat/good push into monster tacked onto the end. Where is the scope for enthusiasm and willingness to improve in there? I may not be that good, but I want to be and I'm not learning anything from turbos ATM.

I see what you're saying.

ginger, reading your sig, you need to read up on Bankroll Management. $300 is not enough to be playing $11s

Bob - how many BI do you recommend? I think 30 is fine as long as you're OK moving down.

I did read up and ask around and was told 20 was ok but 30 was better. Im not moving anywhere till i am convinced im consistently beating the $5.50s anyway, the sig is pre downswing. Don't worry about my BR, worry about my game Wink

Poker Forum

Join Our Poker Community!

Poker Forum Index

Sit-n-Go Tourney Tactics

Longterm ROI question

Poker Forum Index

Sit-n-Go Tourney Tactics

Longterm ROI question