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Posted: Tue, 31 Mar 2009, 1:36pm Post subject: is this right?
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Straight Flush
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 4209
WPP: 150
Location: St. Louis, MO
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i suck at math, so correct me, plz...
i am looking at my CBet% and, i see that i cbet a shitload of the time. i think correctly, but a shitload nonetheless.
i CBet the flop about 71% of the time and the turn about 79%. i imagine these numbers increase because i like to fire on scare cards, i am valuebetting, i obviously fire when i improve and you only called, and because, in limit, the 2 barrel is really just a NL cbet....no one folds the flop, but they all seem to fold the turn. i just had no idea it was that high!
however, i am successful 20% of the time on the flop and 14% on the turn. so, lets do some math...
assume multi-way pot. i raise in position (or not, who really cares at my limits...lol), and pick up two callers and the blinds fold. that puts 2+2+2+1 sb in the pot....on average....for a 7sb pot on the flop. now, i fire 1sb into 7sb's offering my callers 8:1.
1) why do they fold 20% of the time? that just seems stupid.
2) dont i only have to fold them off 14.3% (1/7) to break even? therefore, my 20% success rate is MASSIVELY profitable?
3) if i only have to be correct 14%, yet they only need to have 13% equity, why on earth are we ever checking ANY flop, and why are they EVER, i mean EVER folding?
i understand that if you bet into me, and i completely whiff with 79s, i am dumping that hand. but, why would i ever fold Ahi? or, better yet, why wouldn't i raise your ass back at least 50% of the time w/ any potential whatsoever?
seems to me, limit should just become one great big dick swinging contest that only ends when you finally decide your ass hurts worse than mine.
amiatallrite? |
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Posted: Tue, 31 Mar 2009, 1:41pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 4209
WPP: 150
Location: St. Louis, MO
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next step is the turn...
we get called on our flop cbet. pot is now 9sb. i fire turn. i need 2sb/9sb to breakeven, or 22%, right? and, i am offering you 11:2 on your call? therefore, you only need 18% equity at this point?
so, according to my numbers of being successful 14%, am i actually losing money here? somehow, i dont think so because of the times i have you already beat.
help the confusion! |
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Posted: Tue, 31 Mar 2009, 1:54pm Post subject: Re: is this right?
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Full House
Joined: 10 Feb 2009
Posts: 845
WPP: 180
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| Chopper wrote: | i suck at math, so correct me, plz...
i am looking at my CBet% and, i see that i cbet a shitload of the time. i think correctly, but a shitload nonetheless.
i CBet the flop about 71% of the time and the turn about 79%. i imagine these numbers increase because i like to fire on scare cards, i am valuebetting, i obviously fire when i improve and you only called, and because, in limit, the 2 barrel is really just a NL cbet....no one folds the flop, but they all seem to fold the turn. i just had no idea it was that high!
however, i am successful 20% of the time on the flop and 14% on the turn. so, lets do some math...
assume multi-way pot. i raise in position (or not, who really cares at my limits...lol), and pick up two callers and the blinds fold. that puts 2+2+2+1 sb in the pot....on average....for a 7sb pot on the flop. now, i fire 1sb into 7sb's offering my callers 8:1.
1) why do they fold 20% of the time? that just seems stupid.
2) dont i only have to fold them off 14.3% (1/7) to break even? therefore, my 20% success rate is MASSIVELY profitable?
3) if i only have to be correct 14%, yet they only need to have 13% equity, why on earth are we ever checking ANY flop, and why are they EVER, i mean EVER folding?
i understand that if you bet into me, and i completely whiff with 79s, i am dumping that hand. but, why would i ever fold Ahi? or, better yet, why wouldn't i raise your ass back at least 50% of the time w/ any potential whatsoever?
seems to me, limit should just become one great big dick swinging contest that only ends when you finally decide your ass hurts worse than mine.
amiatallrite? |
Well, at the live tables I play at, it is almost impossible to get players to fold to c-bets. But be that as it may, your analysis is 2-dimensional and there is a third dimension to c-bets.
That third dimension is what c-betting does to your table image. It can have positive or negative effects.
The positive effect is that players who see you c-betting a lot will not necessarily put you on a big hand when you flop one and bet it, which means that you should be able to extract more value out of your big hands.
The negative effect is that regular c-betting both tends to decline in effectiveness over time (as more players figure out what you are doing and call or raise your c-bets) and makes it more difficult to check-raise (a player who c-bets a lot and then checks a flop that hits his range looks very suspicious, making it less likely that other players will bet into him). In contrast, players who don't c-bet a lot can execute check raises a lot more effectively, because people see the check and assume the player missed the flop.
Note that none of this is to say that you are doing anything wrong. I suspect your c-bets are positive EV. It is simply to note that you can't really slavishly rely on statistics to tell you whether your c-bets are working, because the statistics don't really tell you what the c-betting is doing to your table image, if anything. |
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Posted: Tue, 31 Mar 2009, 2:39pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 317
WPP: 66
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| How many players are you c-betting into? I'm c-betting a HU pot way more than a multi-way, obviously because the chance my hand is still best goes down the more players in. But you know this. Is there a way to filter this in PT so we can find our true CBET% in HU pots vs multi-way? An honest c-better would be somewhere between 30-50% right? |
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Posted: Tue, 31 Mar 2009, 4:43pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 4209
WPP: 150
Location: St. Louis, MO
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thanks, lawdude. and, i figured you werent assuming i was doing anything wrong. believe it or not, i was surprised because i felt i was being rather judicious given the fact i play against a huge % of stations where cbets arent that effective. that cbet number also is reflecting just how lightly i have been valuebetting these days, too. so, its not, obviously, 70% of whiffed flops. i connect with a little more than a third of them, as does everyone, when you include overpairs, sets, mid pair+, and draws that i bet. so, i assume i will never get a number under 45% if i take betting whiffs out altogether.
| Airles™ wrote: | | How many players are you c-betting into? I'm c-betting a HU pot way more than a multi-way, obviously because the chance my hand is still best goes down the more players in. But you know this. Is there a way to filter this in PT so we can find our true CBET% in HU pots vs multi-way? An honest c-better would be somewhere between 30-50% right? |
here are MY basic parameters.....those could use a review, too, although i think they are pretty spot on.
HU or one caller.....almost always firing the flop, miss or not....too much value in it, imo. in position, even closer to "always." 3 others? almost never when i whiff; however, if i would "normally" cbet fewer players, i will sometimes donk or c/r with crap, as long as i have potential to make what appears to be a strong hand with one card. for instance, i am in the blind or utg, i pick up an overcard and a gutter, i am likely c/r'ing here or donking...i try to mix it up.
boards i LOVE... all under a 9, connected or not. all gapped flops like 7 9 Qr. any AXX flop. and, paired flops. however, things have been so profitable with cbetting (lately) that i am also throwing one out into suited boards, too. and, the scarier the board, the better if its HU or 3way.....not 4+.
i follow through on the turn (into 2-3 players) on any board that helps me or appears to help me. for instance, flop of 5 8 T and the A hits the turn. or Q 8 4 and the 8 pairs. those seem to get a lot of folds down here. however, Q 8 4 and the Q pairs, i am firing as often as i am not.
ok, now dont come find my tables....lol. although, it's most fun when the turn helps after i've been caught doing this stuff....lol. |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Apr 2009, 2:10pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 10 Feb 2009
Posts: 845
WPP: 180
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Your c-betting strategy seems perfectly plausible to me. Just be sure to take into account reads of villains into it as well as board texture, e.g., you shouldn't be c-betting with air heads up against a station who will call you down to the river with a pair of deuces.
But if I were you, I would try to start watching for whether players start playing your c-bets differently later in a session. Do they adapt to what you are doing (say, by raising more of your c-bets) or do they play against you more or less the same as the session moves on. And if you check a flop on pot you raised pre-flop, do they give you a chance to check-raise by betting into you. That will give you some clue as to whether c-betting is affecting your table image in any way. |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Apr 2009, 6:49pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 4209
WPP: 150
Location: St. Louis, MO
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| LawDude wrote: | | But if I were you, I would try to start watching for whether players start playing your c-bets differently later in a session. Do they adapt to what you are doing (say, by raising more of your c-bets) or do they play against you more or less the same as the session moves on. And if you check a flop on pot you raised pre-flop, do they give you a chance to check-raise by betting into you. That will give you some clue as to whether c-betting is affecting your table image in any way. |
great point. i dont pay enough attention here. or at least i dont pick up on it as often. i can see it and adjust when they raise. but, i cant pick up on it when they call me down lighter and lighter......thats the adjustment i've never thought to look for. thank you. |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Apr 2009, 7:31am Post subject: Re: is this right?
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Full House
Joined: 05 Jul 2007
Posts: 1056
WPP: 85
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| Chopper wrote: |
seems to me, limit should just become one great big dick swinging contest that only ends when you finally decide your ass hurts worse than mine.
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more or less... |
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Posted: Mon, 08 Jun 2009, 9:44pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Apr 2009
Posts: 76
WPP: 126
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| Do you usually play 6max or FR? Have you noticed a big difference between the two in terms of people willing to fight back/call down? |
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Posted: Mon, 08 Jun 2009, 10:03pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 4209
WPP: 150
Location: St. Louis, MO
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| siltstrider wrote: | | Do you usually play 6max or FR? Have you noticed a big difference between the two in terms of people willing to fight back/call down? |
imo, people will call you down a little lighter in 6max. however, LHE is a calling kind of game because of fixed betting structure. it is often correct to call with as few as 4 outs on a flop. and, all the mixing in of "moves" makes it correct to call down with 2nd pair almost every time when HU.....or even worse like Ahi.
the real trick comes in knowing WHICH opponents are capable of what and knowing how your equity matches up against the range that will behave in such a way.
LHE, 6max or fr, is not so much a "i dont know where i am so i'm all in cuz it takes your odds away" type of game. it is more of a "i am calling your ass down because i dont know where i am AND i have a few outs" type of game.
once you figure that out, the fun begins with what you can represent and what you can make your opponent THINK you have based on what youve shown down already. |
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Posted: Fri, 14 Aug 2009, 2:34pm Post subject:
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Strike 3
Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Posts: 7
WPP: 24
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Do you usually play 6max or FR? Have you noticed a big difference between the two in terms of people willing to fight back/call down?
I do not know if this is so |
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