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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 12:28am Post subject: huge odds, and a suckout, but should I have called?
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Full House
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 623
WPP: 92
Location: 100NL 6max
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PokerStars Game #2692523626: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2005/09/30 - 00:23:58 (ET)
Table 'Kypria' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: nickyd2434 ($9.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Reynolds XO ($28.25 in chips)
Seat 3: edudlive ($20.15 in chips)
Seat 4: heyerollr ($16.90 in chips)
Seat 5: acemaxer ($6.75 in chips)
Seat 6: thankyouall ($7.90 in chips)
Reynolds XO: posts small blind $0.10
edudlive: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to edudlive [Js Jh]
heyerollr: folds
acemaxer: calls $0.25
thankyouall: calls $0.25
nickyd2434: calls $0.25
Reynolds XO: calls $0.15
edudlive: raises $0.75 to $1
acemaxer: calls $0.75
thankyouall: calls $0.75
nickyd2434: calls $0.75
Reynolds XO: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Qh 7d 5d]
Reynolds XO: checks
edudlive: bets $3
acemaxer: raises $2.75 to $5.75 and is all-in
thankyouall: folds
nickyd2434: calls $5.75
Reynolds XO: folds
edudlive: calls $2.75
*** TURN *** [Qh 7d 5d] [Ks]
edudlive: checks
nickyd2434: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qh 7d 5d Ks] [Jc]
edudlive: bets $13.40 and is all-in
nickyd2434: calls $2.75 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
edudlive: shows [Js Jh] (three of a kind, Jacks)
nickyd2434: mucks hand
edudlive collected $5.30 from side pot
acemaxer: mucks hand
edudlive collected $21.15 from main pot
nickyd2434 leaves the table
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $27.75 Main pot $21.15. Side pot $5.30. | Rake $1.30
Board [Qh 7d 5d Ks Jc]
Seat 1: nickyd2434 (button) mucked [7s 7h]
Seat 2: Reynolds XO (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: edudlive (big blind) showed [Js Jh] and won ($26.45) with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 4: heyerollr folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: acemaxer mucked [Jd 2d]
Seat 6: thankyouall folded on the Flop
I'm getting 5-to-1 on my money here, should I have called? I got VERY lucky on the river (I was going to fold to a bet on the turn but I just couldn't lay that down with those odds
Should I have raised more preflop (duh) and otherwise tell me how bad I am
I bet $3 on the flop to check for a queen (was going to fold to a reraise, but the $2 reraise made me think about it a bit more) |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 12:37am Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 26 Jul 2005
Posts: 52
WPP: 122
Location: Arkansas
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You won, eh? Looks like it was a good call to me. Because no matter what anyone can tell you about whether it was a good call or not, the fact is that you won.
If he would have had a queen youd be a loser. - (Bad call)
Since he only had J2o...you're a winner ;\ - (Good call)
Simple as that
P.S. - :: crosses fingers :: Phil Helmuth can kiss my ass! |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 1:11am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 1524
WPP: 109
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| Can you explain "huge odds"? I'm not sure I see how you had huge odds on this hand if you are talking about calling on the flop. You only have two outs and that's assuming somebody doesn't have QQ. Even if somebody has only one Queen in their hand, you are a 91.21% underdog on the flop. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 1:28am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 623
WPP: 92
Location: 100NL 6max
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| r8ed wrote: | | Can you explain "huge odds"? I'm not sure I see how you had huge odds on this hand if you are talking about calling on the flop. You only have two outs and that's assuming somebody doesn't have QQ. Even if somebody has only one Queen in their hand, you are a 91.21% underdog on the flop. |
my thoughts:
It was limped to me in BB, in 25NL 6max someone would have raised with QQ, JQs/o, KQs/o, AQs/o, KK or AA (9 times out of 10) so I was positive there was no queen. I didn't think of someone having a set so thats one thing I did wrong. I was thinking smaller pocket pairs TT and below.
Knowing there is no queen...5-to-1 is pretty huge odds...means I only have to be right 1 of those 5 times to break even...only time I've had bigger odds is when someone went all in for 5 cents in a $15 pot. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 2:16am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2655
WPP: 90
Location: Arlington, VA
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| Why did you bet the flop? You can't imagine jacks are the best hand in a super multi-way pot with an overcard on the board. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 10:09am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Posts: 797
WPP: 114
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| J_Tizzle23 wrote: | You won, eh? Looks like it was a good call to me. Because no matter what anyone can tell you about whether it was a good call or not, the fact is that you won.
If he would have had a queen youd be a loser. - (Bad call)
Since he only had J2o...you're a winner ;\ - (Good call)
Simple as that
P.S. - :: crosses fingers :: Phil Helmuth can kiss my ass! |
This is the attitude that will wind up screwing you. A good call is only a good call if you make it for the right reasons. If you could somehow put your opponent on a worse hand, and you are right, it's a good call. If the odds are in your favor to draw to a better hand, it's a good call. If you just get lucky...it was luck.
What if you hold AhAs and the flop comes Ac Ad Kd, someone goes all in, you call with quad aces...Turn is Jd, River is Qd, opponent turns over Td2s....A total bluff, that made a runner runner royal flush. You lose....Bad call by you? No. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 10:47am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 1524
WPP: 109
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| Qx is way ahead of you, that's all I'm saying. Do people limp in with QT in 6max? I think many people limp with any two suited in 6max so a Queen is possible. Therefore, you cannot say the guy has no Queen and think you are 5-1. Plus there are two people in the hand. If it's heads-up you have a better case. It worked out for you in the end but I don't think the odds you are using to justify the call are accurate. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Sep 2005, 5:30pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 1461
WPP: 122
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
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if you raise this preflop raise more you can't have everyone calling. I personally am check/folding the flop. and if i did bet and get that result, you gotta gotta fold to the raise because of that cold caller IMO.
And, despite the fact that you were "positive" nobody had a queen, you will be wrong on that assumption most all of the time. you just can't make miracle reads like that, people play all sorts of weird hands in weird ways for weird reasons. |
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