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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 7:06pm Post subject: How bad is turning my hand to a bluff on this river? 100NL
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Flush
Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 524
WPP: 86
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Villain is 23/20/3.9 over 170 hands. His double barreled 100% so far and seems like a very aggressive regular. We got into some pots before but nothing out of the ordinary and didn't get passed the flop.
I wudve checked river behind if he checked, but how bad is bluffing this river card?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) -
UTG ($90.65)
MP ($116.50)
Hero (CO) ($103.70)
Button ($109.95)
SB ($100)
BB ($106.80)
Preflop: Hero is CO with  , 
1 fold, MP bets $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds
Flop: ($7.50)  ,  ,  (2 players)
MP bets $5, Hero calls $5
Turn: ($17.50)  (2 players)
MP bets $12, Hero calls $12
River: ($41.50)  (2 players)
MP bets $30 |
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 9:02pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 5680
WPP: 126
Location: Ballarat, Australia
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| Are you sure you need to bluff? |
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 9:37pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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| He has a flush way more often than you do. Raising is probably less -ev than calling but likely still -ev. I'd just raise flop or toss it to a triple barrel. |
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 11:21pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 3294
WPP: 87
Location: Toronto'ish
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| This isn't a good spot to turn your hand into a bluff. You either have him beat or he's got you owned and snapping you off. The hands you're trying to "bluff off" (AQ,AK) might even check this river sometimes. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 3:15am Post subject:
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2009
Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 1656
WPP: 64
Location: bluffing scare cards
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| As others have stated I wouldn't bluff here either. I would just fold river. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 3:26am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 1147
WPP: 64
Location: Manc U.K.
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| Yeah this is a bad spot to bluff. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 5:24am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 524
WPP: 86
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| Alrite, thanks for the input guys. If he bet like $20 on the river, would that have made a difference? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 5:24am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 524
WPP: 86
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| Marshall28 wrote: | | I'd just raise flop or toss it to a triple barrel. |
Could you please elaborate on the reason for raising the flop? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 5:50am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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If I didn't want to call 3 barrels I would rather raise the flop. Meaning like, if I expected him to barrel off, I'd rather raise him and check back turn or river if he calls.
From what I remember not too many people ever do that at 100nl, but I guess that's probably why its good. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 10:03am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 3294
WPP: 87
Location: Toronto'ish
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| Marshall28 wrote: | If I didn't want to call 3 barrels I would rather raise the flop. Meaning like, if I expected him to barrel off, I'd rather raise him and check back turn or river if he calls.
From what I remember not too many people ever do that at 100nl, but I guess that's probably why its good. |
I don't get it. You don't want to call 3barrels cause you think you're behind his 3barreling range, so you raise and you figure you're ahead of his "continuing to a raise" range?
Seems to me that this is a line if anything that is narrowing his range to hands that beat yours, and not letting him continue bluffing with worse?
And also, what if he 3bets your flop raise? You're kinda forced to go with it? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 3:17pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 1147
WPP: 64
Location: Manc U.K.
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| Yeah marshall I don't get what your saying at all, raising the flop seems fairly terrible against most opps especially this guy since he'll be barreling a ton and if he 3 bets you're put in a really gay spot where both folding and getting it in would seem like a mistake. |
Last edited by ATOTHEC101 on Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 3:32pm; edited 1 time in total
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 3:22pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 1147
WPP: 64
Location: Manc U.K.
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| L_Clan_Sup3rMaN wrote: | | Alrite, thanks for the input guys. If he bet like $20 on the river, would that have made a difference? |
Yeah it would def make a difference as he's fairly unlikely to halfpot with a flush unless he's looking to induce, but if he was doing that he'd prob bet smaller again, his hand would look far more like aq/ak thus making shoving decent.
i'm also unsure whether this is a call or not, considering he's been very agro and there was a ton of pair + str8 draws that barreled the turn but now bricked the river, plus his sizing makes me feel his range is kinda polarised so I'm leaning towards calling. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 4:07pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 07 Oct 2008
Posts: 510
WPP: 320
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Is there any history here? Like have you called 2 streets with middle pair? Someone who decided to call 2 streets with 98s or JJ-99 or AT or worse because of his high barreling tendency is definitely folding this river. It's just such a great river to 3-barrel. Here's a range that I think could feasibly raise preflop and bet all 3 streets:
| Code: | Board: Ac 8d 7d 5c 2d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.535% 61.63% 02.91% 53 2.50 { AA, 88-55, AJs+, AdTd, Ad9d, A8s-A7s, Ad6d, A5s, Ad4d, Ad3d, A2s, KcQc, KdQd, KcJc, KdJd, KcTc, KdTd, Kc9c, Kd9d, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QdTd, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qc8c, JcTc, JdTd, Jc9c, Jd9d, Jc8c, T9s, Tc8c, 9c8c, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 35.465% 32.56% 02.91% 28 2.50 { AsJc } |
That's pretty much a minimally-sensible range, and we have enough equity to call. Considering that he's barreling 100% so far, he could even be a little bit wider. And is he even good enough to value bet AQ this big on the river? I would much prefer calling to raising he, for the reasons mentioned, and I think we have just enough equity to call.
If we're folding AJo here, are we exploitable? What stronger hands (other than flushes, which aren't a huge percentage) are we playing this way and then calling the river with? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 4:43pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1623
WPP: 101
Location: San Francisco, CA
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| griffey24 wrote: | | This isn't a good spot to turn your hand into a bluff. You either have him beat or he's got you owned and snapping you off. The hands you're trying to "bluff off" (AQ,AK) might even check this river sometimes. |
This. Action heavy board for him to fire river. Id be surprised if he folded at this point, unless he's somehow on a pure bluff. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 4:58pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 592
WPP: 114
Location: Montreal, Canada
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 7:56pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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I explained myself really really poorly. Probably because I had just finished an 8 hour session and had begun drinking. Anyways enough excuses.
It's actually kind of useless what I was pointing out. Was just that I'd rather have raised the flop than call the river if I was three barreled. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 8:01pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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| ATOTHEC101 wrote: | | Yeah marshall I don't get what your saying at all, raising the flop seems fairly terrible against most opps especially this guy since he'll be barreling a ton and if he 3 bets you're put in a really gay spot where both folding and getting it in would seem like a mistake. |
What you're saying doesn't really make sense though if you want to fold the river.
If you are calling because you want to encourage barreling, then obviously folding the river would be atrocious.
Most players don't 3bet bluff the flop unless they are good hand readers, I'd assume 95% of 100nl players aren't.
If you raise flops often you will get called much lighter, and the more important part here is ---- it keeps him from barreling. You can also get more value from draws and you get to dictate how much money you want to continue to put in the pot, you can check back the turn and induce a river bluff or a light call down. You can bet the turn to get more value from draws and check back the river. You just have a ton more options. I think this made more sense than my previous posts. |
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