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Posted: Fri, 29 Dec 2006, 7:55pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Also,
Philadelphia Moneyline (+165)
2 units at Matchbook
Again, fading the public, but this time with a Pinny Lean.
Sorry for the short replies, I'm a little busy tonight. |
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Posted: Sat, 30 Dec 2006, 2:04am Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Orlando fell short by one point. Darn. Oh well. 3-1 on the night with M/L dogs is a night I'll gladly take. 
Record Update:
YTD: 10-14
Units Won: 17.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games |
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Posted: Sat, 30 Dec 2006, 2:09am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 05 Jul 2006
Posts: 7005
WPP: 71
Location: Pwnsylvania
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| Damnit Lee, tell me when you're going to go 3-1 ahead of time plz. Nice night sir |
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Posted: Sat, 30 Dec 2006, 7:32pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Thanks bigspenda. I'll try to keep that in mind for ya.
For tonight, I only have the one bet:
Minnesota Moneyline (+116.62)
3 units at Matchbook
Public is on New Jersey at right around 65-66%. Reverse line move from +3.5 (if you used opening lines at Cris or theGreek) or from +3 (if you used opening lines at Pinnacle).
Judgement call by me to make this a 3 unit play instead of a 2 unit play. Cris and theGreek held the opening line up at +3.5 for almost an hour until Pinnacle popped it out at +3 when they adjusted. The 66/65% is almost enough to not increase this as a fade the public play, but just barely makes it. The combination of these two makes this +1 unit.
Then, the reverse line movement from +3 to +2 adds 2 units. Ergo, 3 unit play.
{edited because I put 2 units before when it should have been 3} |
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Posted: Sat, 30 Dec 2006, 11:08pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Minnesota couldn't pull it through for us today. Darn. Oh well.
YTD: 10-15
Units Won: 14.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games |
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Posted: Sun, 31 Dec 2006, 7:43pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Philadelphia Moneyline (+390)
2 units at matchbook
Sorry. no time. ROCKETS GAME AT TOYOTA. BYES! |
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Posted: Tue, 02 Jan 2007, 7:34pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Darn. So that makes my record:
YTD: 10-16
Units Won: 12.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games |
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Posted: Tue, 02 Jan 2007, 8:48pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Allrighty. To kick off Tuesday, I have the following:
Philadelphia Moneyline (+286)
2 units at BetTrojan
70-75% of the public is on Denver, thinking that AI is going to light his old team up. And yet the line hasn't moved. I'm thinking AI will try to do too much and end up losing the game for the Nuggets, essentially playing 1 on 5 the entire game. Plus, who else would know how best to beat AI than his old team?
Chicago Moneyline (+150)
2 units at BetTrojan
I'm averaging the opening lines and saying the line opened at -4. Pinnacle came out with it at -5, theGreek opened it at -3.5 (and never budged), and BetCris opened it at -4.
The line is now -3.5. I'll just count that as a half point line move. The public is on Phoenix at just barely 66% or so, but the Pinny lean is sitting on Chicago. Ergo, 2 units. |
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Posted: Wed, 03 Jan 2007, 12:32am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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| Ridiculous loss in Chicago, but nice f'ing hit on Philly!!! |
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Posted: Wed, 03 Jan 2007, 12:39am Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Hah. I just looked up the box score. Way to get outscored by 11 points in the fourth, Chicago. Freaking ridiculous...
Oh well.
YTD: 11-17
Units Won: 16.08
Spread Difference Factor: 5 games |
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Posted: Wed, 03 Jan 2007, 2:17am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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Not just that, Chicago lead the whole game until less than a minute left in the 4th. And down 2, Phoenix went for the win instead of the tie and Barbosa hit a 3 with 1 second left.  |
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Posted: Wed, 03 Jan 2007, 7:24pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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| zook wrote: | | Not just that, Chicago lead the whole game until less than a minute left in the 4th. And down 2, Phoenix went for the win instead of the tie and Barbosa hit a 3 with 1 second left. |
D'oh...  |
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Posted: Wed, 03 Jan 2007, 8:41pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Boston Moneyline (+142)
2 units at Pinnacle
Reverse line movement two points from +4 to +3. 66+% of the public. Rounded down from 2.5 units to 2.
GO Boston? |
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Posted: Thu, 04 Jan 2007, 12:30am Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Boston covered, but lost the game, so no dice for me. In fact, it seems like half the games today, the underdog covered, but didn't win. Dang.
At any rate, record update:
YTD: 11-18
Units Won: 14.08
Spread Difference Factor: 6 games
Blech...looks like I'm on a little losing streak again. |
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Posted: Fri, 12 Jan 2007, 7:51pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Been a little while, eh? When I was traveling to/from New York and hanging out with people there, didn't have too much of a chance to get online and handicap. Probably a good thing; things I would have bet on just lost while I was in NY. 
Allrighty. I DID have time to do some work tonight, so here goes:
For tonight:
New York -5.5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook
Pinny doesn't seem to want any money at all on New York and has been like that all day, first serving up a NY -6 (-111) and now serving up a NY -6.5 while everyone else has NY -6.
Of course, with the kickout of US residents, I'm not sure that this should be that significant, but I guess we'll see... |
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Posted: Fri, 12 Jan 2007, 7:53pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Indiana +4.5
1 unit at Skybook
Public is all over Dallas (I thought about taking Dallas on first glance as well ), but the line hasn't budged...at all. So here we are. |
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Posted: Fri, 12 Jan 2007, 8:03pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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| Welcome back. Both your teams are hot, although I would have trouble betting against Dallas playing an Eastern Conference team. GL tonight! |
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Posted: Fri, 12 Jan 2007, 8:09pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Thanks, zook. Woot go FTR team!
Orlando +5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook
Just under 70% of the pulic is on LA, but the line has gone from -4.5 to -4. Yay free half points. |
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Posted: Fri, 12 Jan 2007, 8:23pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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One from another capper:
Memphis -1 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook
That's my reasoning and I'm sticking to it.  |
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Posted: Sat, 13 Jan 2007, 2:28am Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Wow. I only barely pulled off 2-2 tonight, with both my dogs covering, but not winning. Wow. So instead of losing 4.2 units, I lost .2 units. Not a bad tradeoff, I guess.
Anyhoo..
YTD: 13-20
Units Won: 13.88 |
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Posted: Wed, 17 Jan 2007, 1:46pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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With the current unsteady state of the offshore industry, I'm not sure any 'leads' or 'leans' can be trusted.
Until the whole flabbergasted mess gets sorted out, I doubt I will have many plays, if at all. |
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Posted: Wed, 17 Jan 2007, 1:46pm Post subject:
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2082
WPP: 116
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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With the current unsteady state of the offshore industry, I'm not sure any 'leads' or 'leans' can be trusted.
Until the whole flabbergasted mess gets sorted out, I doubt I will have many plays, if at all. Just thought I'd point that out, in case anybody was still reading. |
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FTR $200 Freeroll at ChiliPoker, November 22nd 14:00 ET
