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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 3:03pm Post subject: Fold?
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 3029
WPP: 115
Location: GO BUCKS!
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The guy has nit stats. I don't believe that I can call for set value. Is this a fold? Can I call not just for set value but also because 99 can make more hands than just a set? I believe that it will be hard to play post flop when oop and if others call and the pot gets big.
PokerStars Game #34789694694: Tournament #208010397, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2009/11/01 13:52:28 ET
Table '208010397 115' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: NoA.hpx (6134 in chips)
Seat 2: Fribbe85 (3200 in chips)
Seat 3: Sandi1969 (6380 in chips)
Seat 4: Benyfox (11472 in chips)
Seat 5: Sprayed (10060 in chips)
Seat 6: mavs42 (5827 in chips)
Seat 7: MariahC (2367 in chips)
Seat 8: udunwantnun (1940 in chips)
Seat 9: s_t_bux_a_x (8690 in chips)
NoA.hpx: posts the ante 25
Fribbe85: posts the ante 25
Sandi1969: posts the ante 25
Benyfox: posts the ante 25
Sprayed: posts the ante 25
mavs42: posts the ante 25
MariahC: posts the ante 25
udunwantnun: posts the ante 25
s_t_bux_a_x: posts the ante 25
NoA.hpx: posts small blind 125
Fribbe85: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [9c 9h]
Sandi1969: folds
Benyfox: raises 500 to 750
Sprayed: |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 3:45pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1829
WPP: 67
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I had intended to study situations like these -- calling with midpairs in EP after a raise -- and my laptop died, with over 100k hands lost.
It feels uber-nitty but I would not be surprised if this is an unprofitable situation. A lot depends on how squeezy the table is behind you (if the shorties are gambling it up, it could be a fold) and how this guy plays OOP postflop. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 5:13pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2096
WPP: 101
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| I would fold, set odds aren't there and you still have 6 others behind you. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 5:54pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1829
WPP: 67
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fjuanl:
don't you think the likelihood of villain holding a monster here gives us set odds? i want to fold based on possible action behind us but I think it is close with a chance to get a huge stack against the chip leader. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 5:59pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 3029
WPP: 115
Location: GO BUCKS!
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I'm being a little results because I folded and the board was x99 and like 2 others called pre.  I would def call with Ts in this spot. I think that 9s are a little close. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 7:27pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7972
WPP: 67
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I'd call
if you end up HU you can play your hand really easy vs the nit and should win a decent amount of non set flops.
if lots of people call I'm sure you'll make money just on sets. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 11:25pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 929
WPP: 113
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| I agree with drmc on this one and why don't you have set odds? |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 1:54am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2096
WPP: 101
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Sprayed is just short of having 15x the raise amount and if he flats (generally a standard cutoff for set-mining) theres a chance one of the 6 people left will wake up with QQ+ AK and reraise. I don't think you could call 22-66, but 99 is probably ok at second glance since its a decently high pair
My plan (maybe flawed?) would be:
In multiway pots:
- fold an overpair if the nit fires a decent cbet
In heads up pots:
- call flop with overpair or on flops like J27, fold to turn bets
- check it down if the nit gives up on the turn (<<thoughts?) |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 2:01am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1829
WPP: 67
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fjuanl, as I alluded to, I think a nit has an overpair here often enough that we have set odds more often than against normal people.
I can see peeling with some kind of backdoor equity but I think I'd fold on a T22 flop when he fires out 2/3 pot. |
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