flopped FH in blind steal

Villian is by-the-book TAG. Solid but not overly aggressive.

His pf 3betting range from the BB vs. a button steal I'd estimate at 55+, A7+, KQ, A4s+, KTs+, QJs

FTR Hand History Converter Output (intended for copying and pasting into poker forums!):

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PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T

, Q

.
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T

, T

, Q

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero...?

Just curious. What street do you put in the first raise here? Flop, turn, or river? And of course, why?

Raise the flop because that is what I would do with KJ/Qx+ (sometimes even AK).

If he has a big hand (KK/AA/AT) it will get you a lot of action on the turn. If he has <99 or Ax you won't get much action if you smooth call, may as well get one more small bet in on the flop before he check-folds or check-calls down.

Ok, well i actually had some free time yesterday and i sat down and tried to estimate how many bets would go in the pot for each hand in villian's range. The funny conclusion i came to (and why I posted this hand) is that it makes almost NO DIFFERENCE to your EV on which street you choose to raise this hand.

The reason is that while villian will pay you off nicely with some hands, like AA, AQ, KK, etc., and put in a lot of bets with a few AT, KTs, the majority of his 3betting range is Ax or small pp hands that miss the flop but that he will still probably keep betting if you just passively call along. In other words, because you hold so many of the good cards, it's relatively rare he will have a hand to pay you off with.

This opens up another interesting question: Given villian's range of hands, is there a specific turn card that you should raise but not others? I am thinking J but haven't done the math on it (A or K turn is hard to play too aggressively since he could have just drawn out on you - or am i wrong?)

Finally, if it makes no difference in EV when you raise, is there another (e.g., metagame) reason to put in the first raise on one street vs. another?

...the rest of the hand went:

turn: 9d, villian bets I call

river: 3d (flush draw got there), villian bets, I raise, villian thinks for a minute and calls.

Villian turns over A9.

Villian says: wtf
Dog says: sorry thought i had a flush

Villian avoided me for about 50 hands after that, then left the table.

Personally I call and raise the turn. That clearly sets off bells that you have a big hand, but lets look at it in villians shoes with 3 types of hands:

Hand types 1: He hit the flop hard as well and if you raise he will 3 bet and you can cap. This is where you win the most money, freeroll, but doesnt happen as often as you would wish. Just calling is not getting all the value you coulda got by raising

Hand types 2:He semi hit the flop and if you show aggression back he moves in c/c mode. If you call he knows the pots big and a bet on the turn may scare you away.

Hand types 3: He missed completely and saw it as a good cbet flop, and when you show strength he may peel one card then fold to further aggression. If you call he is either done with it on the turn or might fire a second barrell if hes an aggressive player.

In the end I think calling then raising the turn if he bets is the best option. This way he is commited to calling ur big bet on the turn, and if ur lucky and he has a big hand u can cap it up.

This play also has the potential to limit his 2 barrelling of us in the future. Therefore peeling to the turn to find out the true strength of his hand, and drawing cheaper on the turn becomes possible.

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flopped FH in blind steal

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flopped FH in blind steal