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Poker Forum
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Posted: Mon, 07 Aug 2006, 10:32pm Post subject: Finding the Edge (For Poker Players) |
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Starfleet's Finest
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 2080
WPP: 105
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
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Finding the Edge
From a poker player’s perspective, it may be hard to see where successful handicappers find an edge. In poker, you gain your edge from the mistakes of others, like when they chase a flush without odds or when they hang on with AA even when they’re obviously beat. In sportsbetting, it’s no different: you gain your edge from the mistakes of others.
A common misconception is that in sportsbetting, you’re up against the bookmaker. It’s you vs. him, with nobody else involved. However, this isn’t the case.
If the given the chance, bookmakers would prefer the same amount of money on both sides of a game, every game. With two opposing bettors laying 11 to 10 (an industry standard), the house gets to keep the juice ($1 from the losing player). Multiply this by billions of dollars of wagers and well, you get a nice tidy profit with no risk. This is where the bookmakers get their edge.
However, because of this, they don’t set the ‘line’ where they think the game will end. They set the ‘line’ to generate even action. And when there is a difference between where the ‘line’ is and where you think the line should be, you gain your edge.
And how do they gauge what will generate even action? Public perception of teams will play a HUGE role. Where the ‘line’ is set may be very different (and often is) from where the game actually ends. This difference is created when public perception is wrong, when the average bettor makes mistakes.
Successful handicappers and good books work in concert to feed off the unsuccessful sportsbettors. Sound familiar? Yeah: that’s what you do in poker. You feed off the fish and give the poker room its cut in the form of rake. In sportsbetting, you feed off the squares and give the bookmaker its cut in the form of juice.
So really, this game isn’t that different from poker.
Feed off the mistakes of others. Jump on a line when it’s ‘off’, when the likelihood of something happening is greater than 52% (breakeven point). This is essence of being a successful handicapper. This is where your edge is.
Take it; exploit it; profit from it.
Remember: Making money is fun. |
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