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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 9:20am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Oct 2004
Posts: 1507
WPP: 134
Location: moral high ground
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Thanks for running the numbers TLR. I think your 15% assumption about someone making a play at me is probably good.
So what it looks like is that in terms of expected chip value, the play is virtual dead-even. However it's taking a 0 EV chip play for my tournament life, when I could just continue on surviving if I fold, with M = 11.
Also, you're assuming that if I push over his reraise, that JGB will call. He probably would given the pot odds, but just wanted to point that out assumption as well.
BTW, I don't mean to be one of those players that defends a bad play. It's just that I don't think it's necessarily true that I need to decide if I'm going to the felt with this hand. I've got plenty of chips to use to extract information, which is what I'm doing with an UTG raise as opposed to a limp/fold. I can be a lot more confident that my fold is good if my raise is reraised than if my limp is raised. My philosophy comes down to the fact that I think I still have chips to play with post flop. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Oct 2006, 9:39am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Posts: 4628
WPP: 65
Location: Stars $16 and $27 Sngs
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| FlyingSaucy wrote: | Thanks for running the numbers TLR. I think your 15% assumption about someone making a play at me is probably good.
So what it looks like is that in terms of expected chip value, the play is virtual dead-even. However it's taking a 0 EV chip play for my tournament life, when I could just continue on surviving if I fold, with M = 11.
Also, you're assuming that if I push over his reraise, that JGB will call. He probably would given the pot odds, but just wanted to point that out assumption as well.
BTW, I don't mean to be one of those players that defends a bad play. It's just that I don't think it's necessarily true that I need to decide if I'm going to the felt with this hand. I've got plenty of chips to use to extract information, which is what I'm doing with an UTG raise as opposed to a limp/fold. I can be a lot more confident that my fold is good if my raise is reraised than if my limp is raised. My philosophy comes down to the fact that I think I still have chips to play with post flop. | We look at the situation a bit differently.
Your M is about 10 after the fold (765 chips SB+BB=75), and you are going to post blinds in the next 2 hands and then blinds go up in 2 more hands or so, so if you dont get any chips in the next 4 hands you will have a stack of 690 and M<5.
In most tables we play in it is easier to get back from short stack in this stage because you will get paid, but this is a very tough table, and doubling up is complecated.
All and all I think that I would take the EV natural move here to double up, and taking the risk of busting out.
Since it is EV natural you can argue both ways, this is the way I would play it, but I can see the reasoning for folding.
BTW if you believe you have any fold equity vs JGB here then it is another reason to come over the top |
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