Did I miss a river bet here?

I'm dealt KcQh in the CO. Game is 6-handed.

All fold to fishy player on my right. He limps, and I raise to isolate. SB (the villain) calls, a reasonable but not tricky player. Fish calls.

*** FLOP *** [Td Qs 6c]

I bet, villain check raises, fish folds, I call. My plan is to rope a dope, since I figure I'm either WAWB.

*** TURN *** [Td Qs 6c] [4s]

Villain bets, I call

*** RIVER *** [Td Qs 6c 4s] [As]

Villain checks, I check behind.

What do you think? Should I have bet?

None of his action suggests that the ace helped him. But with the flush on the board. He either folds, or raises your bet, he doesn't call. So no, a bet is bad. No missed bet for you.

Villian's flop c/r range probably includes any Q or T, possibly JJ, and some hands that beat you as well like TT, QQ, AA, etc. On balance, I prefer to raise the turn since you are usually ahead and there are a lot of draws possible, but as played I would bet the river and hope to get a crying call from a worse hand like QJ, KT.

If anything the scary river card helps you because it makes your bet look suspicious. If villian had AQ, AT, KJ, QT, a set or flush he would almost certainly bet out for fear that you would check behind.

Hi Ragnar. I disagree with your analysis here. If he's backdoored into a flush here, I don't think he'll go for a check-raise. My action has just been too passive, and there's a lot of weaker hands he'll call with (any T or Q in my opinion).

Hi Driving Dog. I didn't raise the turn, because although I thought I was ahead I felt a raise would allow him to get away from the hands that I beat and essentially allow him to play more correctly. I agree with your river analysis (although do you mean less suspicious?).

Villain had QJ and my hand was good.

*Last edited by DrivingDog on Sun, 27 Jan 2008, 7:19pm; edited 1 time in total*

Hi Jo. I can see your point about holding off until the river to raise, but there are a lot of river cards (A, T, spade) that will kill your action so I think a turn raise is preferable. I'd be surprised if he'd fold QJ to a turn raise. He definitely won't fold a draw and basically all he will fold is a hand like KT (and if he puts us on a draw or bluff he won't fold that either!). And if he does fold Tx that is not as big a disaster for us as letting him hit a cheap T on the river would be. Finally, if we get 3bet it's a fairly easy muck imo, and we've put in one less bet than had we raised a river blank and got 3bet on the river by QQ, TT, etc..

By 'suspicious' I meant that when the river completes the flush and KJ draws he may put you on a QT, KT type of hand that is trying to bluff as a completed draw. Typical limit players a) bluff too much; b) value bet too little; and c) call down with marginal hands because of 'a' and 'b' above. The answer to this is to a) bluff less; b) value bet and raise relentlessly, even on scary boards; and c) call down with marginal hands.

Yeah on that board a check-raise is Qx very often. The only draw I am worried about is KJ, it's conceivable that he has KJ and hopes that ace just hit you (your passive play is consistent with a hand like AJ/AK). But I'd find a bet here.

The check/raise in this spot is ALMOST ALWAYS one pair. He wants to isolate your continuation bet and force the terrible player to call 2 bets to continue. If he really had a monster he would probably call the flop and c/r the turn like a good little predictable straight-forward player. A bluff is unlikly as the combination of the fish and your tightness/strength is going to keep him pretty honest.

I might just 3-bet him right there. You're only really beat by AQ. Once he checks the river you can pretty much rule that out. Easy bet.

That's some great advice Fnord. Viewing the hand from the villain's perspective on the flop makes his intentions much clearer.

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Did I miss a river bet here?

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Did I miss a river bet here?