Deep Stacks, Flush River, and Thin Value...100NL

Wasn't running a HUD so no conrete numbers. Villain is a standard LAGG though, and was definately calling too many 3bets IP. I think he's capable of reading hands, but nothing amazing.

After I turn the pair I set up his stack for a PSB on a blank river since I can rep a shit ton of missed draws/air and I know he'll look up lighter when draws brick off. (I loaned him that stack when he c/c TPNK 3 streets)

But given turn + river combination i think his shove calling range has gotten relatively small. Checking seems kinda gay since he still has a lot of hands we beat that miiiiight call like $50. Shoving 1 pair on this board seems incredibly thin (for value) now but given the board is riddled with 2 pairs etc he can have turning my hand into a bluff seemed to have some sort of merit at the time since I'm the only one that can really have the flush or straight.

C/F?
Bet $50ish?
Shove?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($186.75)
SB ($109.25)
Hero (BB) ($362.45)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 3 players) Hero is BB King of Diamonds

BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $10, BTN calls $7

Flop: Nine of Hearts

($20.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $14.25, BTN calls $14.25

Turn: Queen of Spades

($49, 2 players)
Hero bets $39, BTN calls $39

River: Four of Hearts

($127, 2 players)

Guy has 2 pair/sets/str8s very infrequently, way more likely he has q10, aj,kj,10j, 1010, 109 and flush draws, we can rule out some combos of f draws because he'd either raise the flop with them (combo draws) or he'd raise the turn once he made the str8, I could also see him jamming the turn with a10 hearts.

Since he's call happy and he'll probably view your river value range as fairly polarised if you bet strongly (if he even thinks this much) I'd just go ahead and bet $84, if he shoves cry/fold as he'd have to be mad to shove for another $40 or so. I think betting smaller i.e. 52ish leaves him the thought that he has f/e if he shoves which we don't want, plus he's less likely to call with worse because it looks like we're towning him.

I'm also not against bet/calling $28 or something.

Why aren't you just value shoving river? You've already established he is willing to call you down very light for one. For two, if he will call down w/ a 1pr hand if all draws brick, he can just as easily call down if the draws get there since he can "think you're trying to rep the draw" or whatever. I hate betting something like 3/4 stacks and folding--that amount is much less likely to get called by worse cuz it looks like such a value bet--I also would never fold for the remaining 40 into however big the pot would be at that point if he did shove over it.

I think villain has 2pr much less often than you give him credit for because basically all those two pairs will raise the turn very often given how draw heavy the board is and how deep stacks are.

I agree with marshall. It's thin for sure but I think it's your best way to rep a bluff and have him continue to call you down light.

bet it all. swear at him if beaten

Oh dont get me wrong, my mouse immediately slid the bar to the right for a shove but then I hesitated for a second.

His last calldown was on a much clumsier board for 30ish BB's. Not 123BB's.

Y'all dont think we lose value from 2nd pair/3rd pair/Q10 type hands by shoving when we could lay him like 3.5 or 4:1 and give him a pretty sick price to make sure he makes that hero call?

Am I wrong in thinking that some of his range (mostly comprised of the hands I beat) will call like 40 or 50 pretty often and fold to a pot sized shove?

A shove on the flush card looks like a last ditch effort to bluff/take down the pot.

A half pot bet looks like a "I'm scared of the flush, or of the flush killing my value, so I'll bet smaller" value bet.

Would you ever bet half pot with a flush?
Would you ever bet half pot with a bluff?

And therein lies my problem in these spots.

I was more worried about squeaking out what value I could moreso than balancing.

Is it not ok to be unbalanced in some spots for the sake of value?

I mean only you can really answer that, with reads on villain. Some villains will be less likely to call a half pot bet than a bluffy looking jam.

If I'm villain with 9T,JT,KJ type stuff on this river and you bet 60ish I'm pretty sure I'm hating life and feeling value towned.

You want to make your range look polarized to him which will make him call you lighter because he won't necessarily expect you to have KQ here. He might think ok he has a bluff or a flush or sets. So suddenly if that is your range calling here with KJ isn't going to be that bad if he feels like your bluffing frequency is high.

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Short-Handed NL Hold'em

Deep Stacks, Flush River, and Thin Value...100NL

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Short-Handed NL Hold'em

Deep Stacks, Flush River, and Thin Value...100NL