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Posted: Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 2:46pm Post subject: Decent hand deep & he's repping thin
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 1373
WPP: 90
Location: KC, MO
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Villain seems to be a thinking aggro. Running 26/25/5.5 over 70 hands with 25% 3bet & 33% A2S. He has opened 3/9 times from UTG but only 1/9 MP. I've been rather nitty as yet and folded to 2 3bets OOP from another TAG. What can he expect me to fold here this deep? I think everyone knows what I have. I kinda think I've been had, as I call BS on him having QQ+ here the way he's been raising UTG.
No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($90.65)
BB ($120)
UTG ($408.85)
MP ($200)
Hero (CO) ($368)
Button ($218)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , Q
UTG bets $6, MP calls $6, Hero calls $6, 3 folds
Flop: ($21) 3 , 3 , Q (3 players)
UTG bets $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $14
Turn: ($49) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $38, Hero calls $38
River: ($125) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $50, UTG raises $350.85 (All-In), Hero
EDIT: I thought it would be more interesting if I hid the cards, but apparently this HH sucks as evidenced by lack of comments. My hole cards now included. |
Last edited by Silly String on Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 10:35pm; edited 1 time in total
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Posted: Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 7:19pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1623
WPP: 101
Location: San Francisco, CA
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Gotta fold barring some feel/reads that you haven't disclosed. most of the time this is qq+ or at least a Q and I would not call here looking for a split.
On the river you have to check behind if he is a thinking player, he knows he can basically own you in this spot. |
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Posted: Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 10:40pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 1373
WPP: 90
Location: KC, MO
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| Is this really a check behind here? God that feels nitty, but after a reevaluation I'm not sure what he 2 barrels here that I beat & can get value out of on that river since a Q isn't folding. |
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Posted: Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 10:54pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Oct 2006
Posts: 1623
WPP: 101
Location: San Francisco, CA
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| Yes it is a clear check behind. Did you call? (You can wait on results, just curious if you did or not and what your reasons were) |
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Posted: Thu, 25 Jun 2009, 1:36am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 19 Dec 2007
Posts: 394
WPP: 72
Location: Brisbane, Australia
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| c/b u say? Man...it would feel extremely nitty, but thinking about this a little more, His range is nuts/air bt much more weighted towards nutters......i guess it's the best option against a thinker. |
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Posted: Thu, 25 Jun 2009, 1:43am Post subject:
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Strike 3
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 5869
WPP: 52
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if you don't expect a raise, you've made the ONLY mistake possible
if he folds we don't need to make any decisions
if he calls the hand is over and we don't need to make any decisions
so when you bet the only thing you should think about is what to do vs. a raise |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 3:22pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 1373
WPP: 90
Location: KC, MO
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| iopq wrote: | if you don't expect a raise, you've made the ONLY mistake possible
if he folds we don't need to make any decisions
if he calls the hand is over and we don't need to make any decisions
so when you bet the only thing you should think about is what to do vs. a raise |
So is that your reasoning for a fold, or checking back the river?
Naturally I folded (especially this deep), but I really wanted to call. The original question is what range can the villain expect a nit(albeit limited read) to fold? Do you think he is trying to push me off a Q? Do you think he thinks anyone folds that boat or do you think he is valuing AA-QQ here? Of course he might be trying to scoop a split.
I mean there is 1/2 a buy in in the middle already & I have to believe he has one of the Top 3 hands in poker after raising 3/9 times UTG. His EP range just doesn't jive with a positionally aware opponent. |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 3:29pm Post subject:
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Strike 3
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 5869
WPP: 52
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he doesn't expect you to fold imo it looks like you have a queen and I doubt he'd expect you to fold a split so I don't think he's really bluffing with anything like a queen or have complete air for some reason
but really you should have an idea of what you'll do vs. a raise when you bet regardless of what you think in this particular hand |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 4:07pm Post subject:
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Almost as bad as that idiot redgrape
Joined: 29 Oct 2004
Posts: 6600
WPP: 74
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| I would not call without AA |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 5:25pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 1916
WPP: 60
Location: Montreal
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| yeah id fold. good line by him |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 7:09pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 4144
WPP: 63
Location: slow motion
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| id fold for sure, but wtf @ checking behind her mixchange? |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 7:16pm Post subject:
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{NSFW - nipple}
Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 107
Location: The Loser's Lounge
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| bode wrote: | | id fold for sure, but wtf @ checking behind her mixchange? |
I think I actually like a check behind vs a decent player here too actually. It's so obvious we have a queen here, it's not like he double barreled 9s and will c/c expecting a double float. |
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Posted: Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 7:44pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 1916
WPP: 60
Location: Montreal
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nooo.. never ever check behind here. most regs at 200nl arent good enough to c/r bluff this river or c/r KK+
i think |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 12:42pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 1373
WPP: 90
Location: KC, MO
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| Any critique to my river bet sizing, if I'm trying to get called by worse? |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 1:56pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 1148
WPP: 64
Location: Manc U.K.
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| Against the villain mentioned I'd check river. |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 2:07pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 1916
WPP: 60
Location: Montreal
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my god i keep reading these HH all wrong 
check behind isnt that bad at all |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 2:16pm Post subject:
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{NSFW - nipple}
Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 107
Location: The Loser's Lounge
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| Alexos wrote: | my god i keep reading these HH all wrong
check behind isnt that bad at all |
Stop doing that! This downswing is making me question my play enough as it is. The last thing I need to contribute is the forum experts telling me I'm an idiot!!!!! AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 2:23pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 1916
WPP: 60
Location: Montreal
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| Galapogos wrote: | | Alexos wrote: | my god i keep reading these HH all wrong
check behind isnt that bad at all |
Stop doing that! This downswing is making me question my play enough as it is. The last thing I need to contribute is the forum experts telling me I'm an idiot!!!!! AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH |
ya srsly i should go back to not posting a lot but actually reading the HH well 
but i think this is more fun |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 4:09pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 3311
WPP: 87
Location: Toronto'ish
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I mean I agree with feeling mega nitty not betting on this river, but I don't think there's much value at all.
If there was a FD on the flop I'd like a bet much more on this river than as played on this board which had no real draw anywhere.
If he's good he should probably be c/bombing a Q on us here even, especially after our sizing, since we can't ever have > Qx. |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 11:18pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 1148
WPP: 64
Location: Manc U.K.
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 12:26am Post subject:
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Almost as bad as that idiot heybude
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Posts: 3068
WPP: 71
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Given that most people would never plan to c/r this river and you only need to be right 33% of the time i call. Honestly it seems pretty FoS to me. If it was an instashove id be less inclined to call.
I also agree with the check behind group (unless you think for some reason you will induce this). |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 11:22am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 1373
WPP: 90
Location: KC, MO
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But over half of the time when we're right we just split the pot here, so 2:1 on our call doesn't look so hot.
Not to squeeze every ounce of value from this thread, but what if the river came a Q and he checked to me? River sizing? I would prob. bet $50 still or shove if I thought he was capable of feeling leveled. |
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