Continuation Betting Revisited

The purpose of this post is to ease some of you guys into doing some analysis on your own. I'm going to use an example of looking at a continuation bet since I figure that topic will attract you guys.

Suppose with 100bb stacks we open {AJ+, KQ, 66+} from some EP/MP position to 4x, a ~14/12 in FR or ~20/16 in 6-max calls us in LP, and everyone else folds. The flop comes A Heart

9

7

. Here are some things to ask yourself:

1. What hands are you c-betting?
2. How much are you c-betting?
3. What hands are you folding to a raise?

I asked a low stakes player this, and this is what he had to say:

1. AJ+, KsQs, 99+, 77
2. 7 big blinds (into a pot of 9 big blinds after the rake)
3. QQ w/o Qs, JJ, TT, AJ w/o backdoor flush draw

With these answers, we can do a little analysis by breaking our range up into sub-ranges based on the line we're taking, which I do here along with how each hand and sub-range is weighted in terms of possible hand combinations:

Bet: AK(12), AQ(12), AJ(12), KsQs(1), 77(3), 99(3), TT(6), JJ(6), QQ(6), KK(6), 67 total
Check/fold: KQ(15), 66(6), 88(6), 27 total
Bet/fold: TT(6), JJ(6), QQ(3), AJ(8), 23 total

What do we think about this?

seems like especially in FR you should be cbetting your entire range here because that 2% hes calling is almost entirely composed of whiffed PP's.

I cbet all of my range for 1/2 pot
I try to get it in with nut hands and nut draws, flat raises with TPTK

When deciding whether or not to c-bet I think less about my hand (assuming I missed the flop), and more about how the board texture hit villain's range, what the villain's flop calling range is, and how he will react to my firing of the turn if he calls flop.

Having any outs, like a gutshot or backdoor straight & flush draws leans me more in the direction of c-betting. Having showdown value against a passive villain makes me less inclined towards c-betting.

Question

Well, if I have a weak draw and villain likes to c/r I tend to cbet less
if I have a draw and villain likes to flat I tend to cbet more

Cbetting Range
I'm cbetting all sets, Ax, all pp's > 99, KsQs. Calling the raise is meh ~ I'd go with suggestions in OP.

Cbet Size
I would prefer 5.5 or 6bb cbet into a 9bb pot. I like Sklansky's reasoning here (from NLH TAP): we size our cbets based on the likely draws out against us (whether or not we caught air). Since it's a TAGG, I'm thinking all pp's and just a few BW's and/or top sc's complete his range. Generally, he's not connecting very well with the flop, so a smallish cbet is fine here, imo. I don't ever bet only 1/2 pot like IOPQ, but I'd certainly bet smallish, 60% or so.

This changes a lot with with a looser cold caller, because then the 97s connects with a good bit of villain's cold calling range. I probably cbet the same range but bet bigger, 7 - 7.5 bb's, to charge more for the draws.

What is villains 3 bet%, and is this EP or MP?

My cbet range for value is the same as 1 in the first post without TT-KK, KQss. I would include KQss into my range which I would bet/shove along with Axss, and sets. I would check AK/Q/J and all TT-KK for pot control. If I do bet any of the ace hands, it's a bet/fold.

I can think of a lot of reasons why our hand should affect our bet-size

This is probably out of the beg. circle's league here, but it's more about how we can exploit our opponent's reaction to a certain bet size. We then decide what reaction we'd want based on our hand, and choose that bet size.

Getting closer robb. Not every Cbet is meant to fold out your opponent.

Is your bet size the same with sets Vs LAGGS as it is with just two backdoor draws vs nits?

We should always check behind with TT-KK.

Monty, you even said it yourself.

"I fold to anything larger than a 2xmin raise. If he flats it, likely I'm facing a pair of Aces and will not bet again unless I improve on the turn. "

We're not cbetting based on relative hand strength but we're cbetting for a reason. Betting to have better hands call, worse hands fold and always muck to c/raises seems like a bad reason.

Im not sure i get what youre saying jkds...could you explain?

*Last edited by spoonitnow on Tue, 30 Dec 2008, 3:20pm; edited 1 time in total*

im just saying that if we took a horrible line like c/calling 3 streets on an ace high flop, the reason would be because we know our opponent bluffs too much.

I just had a mini "aha!" moment
we can cbet more when we raise UTG than when we open-raise from SB or BU

*Last edited by spoonitnow on Tue, 30 Dec 2008, 3:54pm; edited 1 time in total*

Ax would be my check/calling range though?

though i do need some clarity. My original response was assuming we had sweet, sweet position. Was I mistaken?

*Last edited by spoonitnow on Tue, 30 Dec 2008, 10:03pm; edited 1 time in total*

This is just a helluva thread. I'm getting a ton out of reading through everyone's stuff.

You just sound uncomfortable with not cbetting. How often do you not cbet hands that will likely win at showdown?

I mean a flop like 762 two-tone is a terrible one to cbet and hope to take it down because even 55 might think you have overcards and call at least one street
Conversely, those are good flops to cbet for value when you hit them

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Continuation Betting Revisited

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Continuation Betting Revisited