Comparing odds.

I was reading this article - http://www.thepokerforum.com/pokermath2.htm

"So that makes the ratio of cards you don't need to need 35 to 12 or around 3 to 1. You would have to put 35/12 into its simplest form and its around 3/1 not exact (the exact figure is 2.916 repeating). Round that off to 3 to 1. The pot would have to be at least 3 times the size of the bet. "

How is that 3-1? What math did he do to figure out it was 3-1?

my teacher just explained this to us the other day for a totally unrelated purpose but it works here. hope its clear.

think of it in parts, the smaller number being one part
47/12 = 4 = 1 part
47/35= 12 = 3 parts

so, 35 is 3 parts, 12 is 1 part, so 3:1.

I think an easier way to think of it is this. You have 12 outs. 12 x 2 + fudging a little is 25%. So you are going to win this pot 25% of the time and lose it 75% of the time. so, 25% is 1 part, 75% is 3 parts, 3:1.

if you don't think that's true or can't take it on intuition alone, consider it this way. 25% to win, 75% to lose. If you ran this hand 4 times, with the expected 3 wins and 1 loss, what does the pot need to be to break even? Let's say the pot is 300 and you need to call 100. 4 run throughs of calling. you spent 400 dollars calling those 4 times. you won once, and got the 300+100 so 400 dollar pot, and you've just broken even.

Hmm, still a bit foggy.

Would you mind doing a few more examples please?

A question about pot odds, why do you calculate them?

If you have a good hand, your going to call/raise regardless of the pot odds right?
Same with a bad one, check/fold? What's the point of calculating them? I really don't decide my calls based on math, nor pot odds.

But I am trying to get them all down for when I need them. The people I play with know nothing about pot odds, outs, etc...

"Why don't you try? You are 80% to win, what are the odds of winning?"

4-1?

It looks like you get the gist of it:

Here's the FTR link that explains odds:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/start_pot_odds.html

If you really care you should read HOH 1. It's very clear.

You should really read everything here:
http://poker-strategy.flopturnriver.com/

after you get a little experience too, implied odds let you fudge a little. calling a halfpot bet with a straight draw might not be correct, but you're often going to make up for it on the next hand.

so just remember, outs x 2 = % to hit an out per card to come, and then think, well this bet is probably good/bad/ugly for me to call given my outs, and the odds of me getting paid off if i hit are good/bad/ugly, so i should do x.

I know how to find out the pot odds, and outs and stuff. I just don't know how to make the outs into ratios...

Theres 120 in the pot, someone bets 20 into it, the pot odds are 7-1 right?

The other way people do it is say 6 out of 47 cards help, so you'll catch your card 13% of the time. So the ratio is 13%:87%. Divide both sides by 13% and we get 1:6.7 (note it's off by .1 because of rounding errors).

I understand the ratios now, thanks. But, you confused me with the 6 out of 47 cards left. Is that right after the flop? And the turns about to hit? I have been using the 4, 2 rule. So wouldn't I multiply the 6 by 4?

Or have I been doing it wrong the whole time?

And for my other post, yeah the pot is 120 and my opponent bet 20 into it.

So, if you have decided you weren't going to put another chip in the pot unless you made your hand, going to the turn, you would multiply by 2. I get it.

Now let me try.

Pot : 375. Someone bets 90. Pot is now 465.
Pot odds are...around 5-1?

I have 78 of hearts, flop is 9,10,A rainbow. I have 8 outs. 8*4=32%

Would it be 32%-68%? What would that ratio become?

Btw, I really appreciate you coming back and posting and helping me out. Thanks alot.

http://casinogambling.about.com/library/weekly/aa050103.htm

The Rule of Four -Two.

"The rule of four-two, as I like to call it, is an easier way to figure the odds for any situation where you know your outs. It is not completely accurate but it will give you a quick "ballpark" figure of your chances for making a hand. Here is how it works.

With two cards to come after the flop you multiply your number of outs by four. With one card to come after the turn, you multiply your number of outs by two. This will give you a quick figure to work with. If you have a four-card flush after the flop you have nine outs. With two cards to come, you multiply the nine by four and you get 36 percent chance of making the flush. The chart shows the true odds at 35 percent. With one card to come you multiply nine by two and get 18 percent. The chart shows that the true figure is 19.6. It is not completely accurate but it is pretty close, and it is an easy calculation to do in your head."

Alright, I can safly say that I think I can get the pot odds and outs pretty easily now.

But converting percentages to ratios, is something I hate, and no nothing about.

Did I do the math right in my post before Harry's?
I'm gonna take a stab and say 32%-68% would become...

2.1-1? And the pot odds are 5-1.

Which should be higher to mathematically make a right call?

You want to have a better chance at winning than you have to pay.. so if you have to pay 2:1 for a 5:1 chance to win, not good. (unless implied odds make up for it)

So, I was right with 2.1?

So I want my outs ratio to be high than my pot ratio.

Should it be a certain amount higher? Or can it be like just slightly over it, and mathematically it would be a right call?

If the outs ratio is equal to or higher than the pot ratio (to use your terms), then it's basically an auto-call. This is given that you WILL win the pot if you hit your outs ofcourse, but in the case of flush or straight draws this is usually so.

For example, by the turn, the pot is $10, and you have a flush draw.. so 5.5:1 or something to hit the river. Opponent bets $2.. you have to call 6:1, so this is an auto-call.

Now let's say he bets $4. That like 3.5:1 to call.. so it's not an auto-call.. but if you think you can make some more money if you hit on the river, then you can consider calling anyway. Poker is all about estimating these implied odds, that is why I mention it here in conjunction with pot odds.

I think I got it down now.

Pot is 1000, someone bet 500 into it. Pots now 1500, my pot odds are 3-1.

I have a flush draw on the flop. 9 outs * 4 = 36%
36%-64%
1.7-1?

I should fold? My pot odds are lower than my outs ratio. Right?

That's what confuses me. When people say you will have to win this many times, outta this many times. It looks simple enough, just I think I'm making it more confusing than it should be.

I think it's called the BEP? Break even percentage?

"The river card may not be free, the odds of you hitting your flush on the turn is 9 * 2 = 18%, which is about 1:4."

Bad. I notice the that is higher, higher the worse? Lower the better?

Which do you want higher: risk or reward?

Two scenarios to consider:
You pay me $1 if I roll a 1-5 with a die. I pay you $3 if I roll a 6.
3:1 odds on something with a 1:5 chance of winning?

You pay me $1 if you roll a 1-4 with a die. I pay you $3 if you roll a 5 or 6.
3:1 odds on something with a 1:2 chance of winning?

Jack' makes a good point. But you have to either convert the pot odds to a percentage, or convert your win percentage to odds. Whatever suits you is fine.

Just want to correct a couple of things from a few posts ago...

Hrmm, I ordered HOH, hopefully it explains this in there.

I just have alot of trouble converting the ratios into percentages and vice versa.

.. ok this is why I hate ratio's..

but anyways, I guess I was using "higher" as in "a better chance".. I just took the original poster's wording.

*Last edited by CaseAce on Fri, 30 Jun 2006, 8:33pm; edited 1 time in total*

Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
= 5 - 1
= 4:1

In that link. Do you always use 100?

It's under How to calculate hand odds (the shorter way):

Sweet, looks pretty simple.

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Comparing odds.

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Comparing odds.