AJo 50NL

opp is a pretty heavy multitabling TAG regular 18/12 5% 3bet. only somewhat aggressive, and very straightforward. He probably has my cbet % at around 2/3, similar aggression level. UTG is a passive donk.

is shoving the flop my best move? the problem i see with calling is that if i get a club on the turn, i would rarely stack my opponent since he would have to have a Jack high flush to want to stack off on a 4flush board. Also, any Ten counts as an out against the sets in his range if i shove.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($49.50)
BB ($59)
UTG ($90.50)
Hero (MP) ($50.75)
Button ($51.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J

, A

UTG calls $0.50, Hero bets $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.75) K

, 7

, Q

(3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5, Button raises to $15, Hero shoves

Board: Kc Qc 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.382% 34.30% 00.08% 5773 13.50 { AcJh }
Hand 1: 65.618% 65.54% 00.08% 11030 13.50 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, 77, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c6c, 6c5c, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc }

if he's never raise/folding (which I suspect to be the case here) I think folding is OK too because on this board he's not going to represent a big draw with air, he's most likely got his stack off range when he raises

you don't always have to shove all in with 35% equity

i only need 27% equity to call the flop raise... my 33% equity assumes i see both the turn and river though, which i cannot guarantee OOP. calling is likely slightly -EV, given my implied odds will be low since my FD is so obvious and he has very few nut hands on a 4flush board

folding is oEV, but if that's my best option of the three then a flop c/r would have been a better line. i get to catch some stabs, and when i get 3bet shoved on it's an EZ call. i also like a flop c/r since im not likely to get three streets of value from worse hands if i do complete any of my draws.

given the money already in the pot, and having decent equity, shoving was my best option once i had raised, but i shouldn't have done so against this opp in the first place. In order to cbet this strong draw, i'd want to know that my opp is either going to call a lot, or bluff raise me often enough that i have some FE to go with my 3bet shove.

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AJo 50NL

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