AA want a line, do hero fold here?

NL Texas Hold'em $33 Buy-in Trny:21554694 Level:1 Blinds(20/40) - Friday, March 31, 12:27:18 ET 2006
Table Walk The Plank (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: Stripclbjnk ( $2000 )
Seat 6: MXZINE ( $2000 )
Seat 5: poak_her ( $2000 )
Seat 7: heyluther ( $2000 )
Seat 1: patgui ( $2000 )
Seat 9: Barche ( $2000 )
Seat 10: TAGMAKER ( $2000 )
Seat 8: DeportedPro ( $2000 )
Seat 2: sancho742004 ( $2000 )
Seat 3: ANDROIDE ( $2000 )
Trny:21554694 Level:1
Blinds(20/40)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Stripclbjnk [ Ah As ]
ANDROIDE folds.
>You have options at Prosperous Cay Table!.
>You have options at Prosperous Cay Table!.
Stripclbjnk raises [184].
poak_her folds.
MXZINE folds.
heyluther folds.
DeportedPro folds.
Barche folds.
TAGMAKER folds.
patgui calls [164].
sancho742004 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 9d, Tc ]
patgui checks.
Stripclbjnk bets [250].
patgui raises [500].
Stripclbjnk... ?

Its the first hand...I must say i had a gut feeling, he was holding trips, so what would you do?

I call and seek it cheap, unless I get an overwhelming feeling of ten on the turn.

Board: Th 9d Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 78.4175 % 77.41% 01.00% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 21.5825 % 20.58% 01.00% { 99+, ATs+, ATo+ }

Pot equity: 78% of t658=t513.

How is my hand range?

Optomistic, someone minraising AQ there would be very crafty. I would add in lower PPs, tho, that's not a bad flop for 77.

This is a tough spot. I would call the flop for sure and see what he does on turn, per Rond. Very hard to tell T from worse overpair here.

I would certainly call with any PP there pre flop. I would fold AT and AJ for sure, maybe AQ. I think I would re raise or fold if I was playing AQ.

I don't know why we care about pre flop? Maybe I don't know what you're up to here. AA is way ahead of everything pre flop.

This is really hard 1st hand no read. Some poeople just flat out do not believe c-bets on paired boards... but the min/raise is odd. Doesn't look like an OESD either.

He either has A9/K9 a T, JJ QQ KK AA. No point in trying to put a guy from a blind on range 1st hand, he could have anything. What sucks is that you have no way of knowing if it's a weak min-raise or a strong one.

Without a history - I think a weak min/raise on the flop is weak. He is trying to make sure you don't have a T, and can lay it down if you push. So push. It's slim though, because it could be a sucker raise as well.

I don't think you can call off another 8th of your stack with 2 streets left, and you can't call a big bet on a non-A/non-T turn.

Tough spot though.... folding is not that bad.

Personally i hate a push here because any hand that beats you is calling and some hands you beat fold. I'd much rather call and play it from there or min reraise back at them, calling a push. Taking this line allows us to get all of villain's chips if they have a 9 or JJ-KK more often than if we just push imho.

Stripclbjnk is all-In [1566]
patgui is all-In [1316]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
patgui shows [ Td, Ad ] a full house, Tens full of fours.
Stripclbjnk shows [ Ah, As ] two pairs, aces and tens.
patgui wins 4040 chips from the main pot with a full house, Tens full of fours.

Just reread my post and i'm not sure it explains my point very well.

Basically, if you push in this spot, you lose to any T (nobody is calling that bet preflop with a T and laying it down on that flop), and you give anyone without a T (or 99) a good chance of getting away from their hand which they think is probably the best (eg A9, JJ-KK).

If you call flop bet and check/call later streets then you probably still lose all your chips to a T, but you make more than you would have off all other hands unless someone stupidly loose with QJ hits their draw. But then, if they played QJ like this up to this point, chances are they're calling flop push anyway. I like this line the best because it makes me feel good when i call opp's push and they flip A9 lol.

Of course you can fold to flop reraise too but imho that's a little too tight.

PS Have never played abve $15 buyins for SnGs so this may not apply at all here.

Pretty tough for QQ /JJ to fold to a push, and pushing elimates the possibility of overs coming on later streets and scaring them away. Almost impossible to think he could play KK this way pre flop and then fold.

Your theory seems to be these hands will keep leading irregardless of what turns off, but won't call a flop push - why? If they are going to keep firing away if unders come, they are going to call here.

I don't know, it's probably pretty close in this situation. We're only really talking here about if villain doesnt have a T, so if they have, say, 66-88, JJ, A9. Thinking about it there's no way QQ+ can fold to a push from hero here.

To make the reraise, villain must think hero doesn't have a T.

I think villain is more likely to lead out on a turn that they don't think helps hero (would be easy to put hero on AK here, no?), if hero calls flop bet, than they are to call hero's flop push. But, i could easily be wrong, am hardly crushing SnGs myself to be honest.

In all honesty i don't think it makes a huge difference, but i see your point, though i think my line would be better at the levels i have played at on stars ($5 & $10). Maybe it's not for higher levels.

I'm not sure you understand what I'm saying.

Villian has 88
my line - push, hope he calls, putting us on AK.

your line - call flop re raise, hope card < 8 turns off, hope villian leads turn AFTER you have smooth called on T9T flop. Why would AK smooth call a raise on the flop. Smooth call SCREAMS overpair or T. AK either folds or re raises. Again I say if villian leads here, he is calling the flop push.

If card > 8 turns off (esp A or K) you get no more action from villian.

If an 8 comes off, you go broke.

Why is your line ever better?

Am I missing something, or are we discounting playing, for example, 9s10s and calling a 4.5x BB preflop? Or is it not worth discussing the opponents (possible) nuts... Smile

(personally, I occasionally include 910 in my starting hands with position...)

Villains are calling big PFR's OOP with A10 at the 33's on Party? And I'm still grinding the 11s on Stars why? I don't think you could have accounted for any hand with the 10 calling except J10s or TT. I probably go broke here, even tho it's this early.

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AA want a line, do hero fold here?

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AA want a line, do hero fold here?