A simple range exercise

We don't do that stuff nearly enough, and I'm sure most of you don't really use this, so here's a simple exercise.

I just played this hand an hour ago, and I thought it was somewhat interesting. Villain is a friend of mine

It's 10c/20c/40c live - straddle isn't mandatory but most hands are straddled and double-straddled
Relative stack with villain is €40

I straddle with Queen of Clubs

3 callers, villain completes from the SB, BB completes.

Flop:
6 players
Pot: 1,9 (lol rake)

King of Spades

check, check, I bet 2, 3 folds, villain calls, bb folds.

Turn:
2 players
Pot: 5.9

Six of Diamonds

Villain checks, I bet 4.5, villain raises 13, I call.

River:
Pot: 31.9

Three of Hearts

Villain bets 25 all-in

He can't have AK, KQ, KK, QQ - he would raise pre. He doesn't really think about my range, so even though he would turn 86 into a bluff by playing it that way, he's not aware of it. He would c/r or lead JT almost always. If he would c/r a K or Q with a FD on the turn he probably would c/r bigger and not bet the river - you could add ~4 of those combos if you want to be anal about it.
He doesn't have a bluffing range really. He's smart enough to know not to try and bet me off my hand after I lead a multi-way flop on that table.

So his range is 88, 66, K8, K6, Q8, Q6, 68.
First off just decide if you would call or fold without counting combos.

How much equity do we have against his range, and how much equity do we need to make a call 0EV?
Bonus: What's the exact EV of calling?

Come on people

I would call, but feel kinda gross doing it.

We have 40% equity vs his calling range, we need exactly 30.5%.

.4*81.9 = 32.76
.6*25= 15

32.76-15 = $17.76 is our EV on a call.

Why do you have 66 in his range unless your friend is a solid player? Also I have never counted the combos before. For curiousity, what is the advantage of counting them; can't we just pokerstove it?

If I had the K instead of Q, I would certainly call with two pair. In this case I tend to fold it on the turn.

Edit: Shouldn't we instead calculate the EV on the turn?

Yeah counting combos is extremely important. You'll start to realize why. Spoon's thread is great.

dranger - I got the same answers

Thanks for the link and the OP itself spoon. So, I read the thread and gave it a try:

Our hand: Qc8s

Villian's range : 88, 66, K8, K6, Q8, Q6, 68.

Board: KsQh8d6d

88: 3 combos
66: 6 combos
K8: 12 combos
K6: 16 combos
Q8: 9 combos
Q6: 12 combos
86: 12 combos

Total of 70 combos. So, we beat 33 combos out of 70. I am not sure if we should include Q8 combos when calculating equity:

With Q8,

(9+12+12)/70= 0.47 ____our equity is 47%

0.47*81.9=38.49
0.53*15= 13.25

EV= 38.49-13.25=25.24

However, since the decision was made on turn, the EV of the turn call should be calculated imo. And, I don't know how to calculate the EV on the flop and the turn by combo method.

Edit: I have just realized that Q8 must be 4 combos instead of 9:

so,

with Q8 included (12+12+4)/65=0.43 meaning 43% equity
without Q8 (12+12)/61=0.39 meaning 39% equity

The turn is pretty difficult to figure out exactly during the hand. We have implied odds with 5 outs against some of his range if we're behind and reverse implied odds against others when we improve, but end up with the worst hand. It should be closer to 50% equity. Given the pot odds the turn should be a pretty obvious call. - This would change a lot in a raised pot because his range is a lot narrower and tilted more towards sets and better 2-pair hands.
The way this hand played out - with a c/c on the flop and a c/r on the turn in a limped pot it really looks like he improved on the turn. Frankly I've included K8 and 88 more as an afterthought for completeness and because it makes it a little closer Razz

.
I think his range is weighted towards K6, Q6, 86, 66, and Qx of diamonds (on the turn).

Extremophile - I don't really know what you did there with the combos.
88 - 1 combo: 8 Heart

8

66 - 3 combos: 6 Heart

6

, 6

6

, 6

6

K8 - 6 combos: there are two 8's and 3 Kings left in the deck.

And so on.

I feel like a dumbass but before going in-depth I would have said fold. I can only imagine some others would feel the same. Thanks oskar for the exercise, I'm for sure going to do this more often with my hands.

So my first answer was to call. Then I did the math:
25/81.9 = 30.5% equity needed for call to be breakeven

PokerStove is giving me 40% equity vs. villains range.

88-1 combo - lose
66-3 combos - lose
K8-6 combos - lose
K6-9 combos - lose
Q8-4 combos - split
Q6-6 combos - win
68-6 combos - win

So if I did everything correct I come up with 19 combos that we lose against and 12 we win and 4 we tie.

88 (1 combo)
66 (3 combos)
K8 (6 combos)
K6 (9 combos)
Q8 (4 combos)
Q6 (6 combos)
86 (6 combos)

There are total 35 combos. Since we split with 4 combos of Q8 we must count 2 of them we beat and 2 of them beats us... So there are 14 combos that we beat. Our equity is 14 / 35 = 40%.

Our equity in the pot is 40%;
We get 81,9 * 0,40 = 32,76 from the pot. Since we invest 25 for this income, our EV is 32,76 - 25 = 7,26.

Another way to calculate this;
We win 40% of the time... 56,9 * 0,40 = 22,76 (56,9 here is our profit. We must use the profit in this equation not the pot size.)
We lose 60% of the time... 25 * 0,60 = 15
Our EV is 22,76 - 15 = 7,26

Edit:
Sorry I missed that part. Equity needed here is 25 / 81,9 = ~0,305 = 30,5%

Nice explanation belt. I don't think I have seen the combos to equity calculation done the way you did it. This must be what you guys do at the table rather then plugging the stuff into PokerStove.

Monty, I just posted the whole hand to make this whole thing more life like and to explain how I got to that range. I really don't think QK is a possibility. If he doesn't raise pre, he'll lead or c/r the flop (same with 88). - Some random guy might not, but I know him pretty well. And all the random junk is definitely in his range.

Belt you did the EV calculation wrong, which is why we are getting different answers. It should be our equity (.4 * 81.9) - (.6 * 25) (villains equity * the amount we lose, not JUST the amount we lose) = 17.76. Try it again and see if u get a different answer.

Well, actually I'm pretty sure that my calculation is right...

Edit: But I'm gonna re-calc it again and will post the results.

So me and kmind are wrong and no one has bothered to correct us... interesting.

This is spenda's equation from "How to Analyze Calling an All In."
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/forum/how-to-analyze-calling-an-all-in-t87954.html

EV = (our equity)(pot size) - (our opponents equities)(bet size)

OK, here we go... To test our calculations lets create a scenario where there are 40bbs in the pot and villain bets 30bbs... How much equity do we need to make this call break even (EV must be equal to 0 in other words)?

Equity needed = 30 / (40 + 30 + 30) = 30%

So when we have 30% equity we must be breaking even. Lets calculate it your way;
EV = (100 * 0,30) - (30 * 0.70) = 30 - 21 = 9 <> 0

Lets calculate it my way;
EV = (100 * 0,30) - 30 = 30 - 30 = 0
or,
EV = (70 * 0,30) - (30 * 0,70) = 21 - 21 = 0

It's obvious that you made a mistake here. My calculations are right.

Touche salesman lol. I did indeed make a mistake. I wasn't trying to sound like a dick when I was "correcting" you. lol

And looking at the last sentence of my last post, i clearly did sound like a dick. Apologies...

OMFG... No excuse for this silly mistake... Embarassed

OWNED! (kidding Smile

)

As long as I'm not even or worse than dranger I am grateful

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A simple range exercise

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A simple range exercise