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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 11:41am Post subject: A high versus river shove on drawy board.
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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Ok do you guys call or fold river?
not many hands on villain so stats are useless
Absolute Poker (Cash Game): $0.01/$0.02 NL, 4 players
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 11:26:34 EDT
Powered by [url=http://www.flopturnriver.com/Referrals/Poker-Academy.html]Poker Academy[/url] (Format: 2+2 Forums)
BB ($1.86)
B2 ($2.97)
B1 ($0.90)
Hero ($1.33)
Hero is the button.
Precards:
BB posts the big blind $0.02.
Preflop: Hero is dealt 7 A (4 active)
B2 folds, B1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, BB folds, B1 calls $0.06.
Flop: T 6 2 ($0.18, 2 active)
B1 checks, Hero checks.
Turn: T 6 2 8 ($0.18, 2 active)
B1 checks, Hero bets $0.18, B1 calls $0.18.
River: T 6 2 8 Q ($0.54, 2 active)
B1 bets $0.64 (all-in), [color=#ff8c00][ |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 11:44am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| My only comment right now is i was multi tabling and did not mean to check the flop. Everything else was 100 percent on purpose. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 12:59pm Post subject:
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Two Pair
Joined: 17 Sep 2009
Posts: 31
WPP: 138
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| ...I'm confused. You're holding A high and wondering if you should call the river shove? It's Friday, and I may be drunk, but am I missing something here? |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 12:59pm Post subject:
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One Pair
Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Posts: 21
WPP: 39
Location: Boston
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| Easy fold. Villain has you beat with anything, especially any AQ QJ Q10 or even 79 J9 that might be in his I-Dont-Play-Full-Stacked-Cause-Im-A-Donk range. |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 4:12pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 22 Sep 2008
Posts: 481
WPP: 144
Location: Where am I going and why am I in this handbasket?
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| Why are you short stacked? |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 6:41pm Post subject:
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High Card
Joined: 24 Oct 2009
Posts: 7
WPP: 27
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| Im guessing you called and beat him and I think this is a bluff sometimes v micro stakes players i've seen similar things but not often enough to call ESP v an unknown so I fold. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 9:31am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| . This is a pretty easy call. honestly surprised that so many of you say to fold. look at it this way villain is either betting a made hand or busted draw. with the exception of paired Qs what made hands is he betting? |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 9:39am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| tomato paste carnage wrote: | | Easy fold. Villain has you beat with anything, especially any AQ QJ Q10 or even 79 J9 that might be in his I-Dont-Play-Full-Stacked-Cause-Im-A-Donk range. |
Well AQ is possible but is villain really gonna call the turn with no draw? The only AQ i fear is AdQd. QJ is a little more believable though as it gives him a str8 draw on the turn. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 9:51am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Ok ty for all your replies. Even though i disagree with most i appreciate them just the same. When he open shoved the river my first instinct was to fold. Then i got to thinking what is he betting. I narrowed his range to paired qs + and busted draws. I called and he had a busted flush draw. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 11:48am Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 51
WPP: 82
Location: Istanbul
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| littleogre wrote: | | . This is a pretty easy call. honestly surprised that so many of you say to fold. look at it this way villain is either betting a made hand or busted draw. with the exception of paired Qs what made hands is he betting? |
Dude you are aware that you must have at least 35% equity to make this call break even, right?
Say he pushes with straights, sets, 2pair hands with Q, busted flush draws with Qd and unpaired busted flush draws. Lets count;
Str8s with 97 (12 combos)
Str8s with J9 (16 combos)
Sets (15 combos)
Two Pairs with Q (36 combos)
Busted flush draws width Qd (excluding 2pr ones) (7 combos)
Unpaired busted flush draws (21 combos)
He pushes total 107 combos. 21 / 107 = ~20%
Since 35 > 20, no need to be surprised when people say it is a fold.
By the way,
| littleogre wrote: | | The only AQ i fear is AdQd. |
You are the one who is holding the Ad. So no need to be afraid of AdQd. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 3:58pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 2204
WPP: 81
Location: sigh..nit ring
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 3:13am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | . This is a pretty easy call. honestly surprised that so many of you say to fold. look at it this way villain is either betting a made hand or busted draw. with the exception of paired Qs what made hands is he betting? |
Dude you are aware that you must have at least 35% equity to make this call break even, right?
Say he pushes with straights, sets, 2pair hands with Q, busted flush draws with Qd and unpaired busted flush draws. Lets count;
Str8s with 97 (12 combos)
Str8s with J9 (16 combos)
Sets (15 combos)
Two Pairs with Q (36 combos)
Busted flush draws width Qd (excluding 2pr ones) (7 combos)
Unpaired busted flush draws (21 combos)
He pushes total 107 combos. 21 / 107 = ~20%
Since 35 > 20, no need to be surprised when people say it is a fold.
By the way,
| littleogre wrote: | | The only AQ i fear is AdQd. |
You are the one who is holding the Ad. So no need to be afraid of AdQd. |
Exactly what set is he gonna show up with here ? If he flopped a set sure he may check the flop with his hand but most 2nl players do not have the patience to slow play 2 streets when they are not getting action. Sure he could of had a set of 8s on the turn. My problem with that is i showed aggression on the turn so he would have no need to lead out on the river. A set of Qs is also hard to believe.
Unless the guy is an uber nit Qs would have raised long before the river. When he insta shoves the river to me he is saying please fold mister. If we put him on a range AK-a2 suited diamonds and AQo and kq-kts and jt-j7 suited and J(/J& off . Then add suited connectors 34-t9. To finish his range we add 75 off. Then we estimate that he is only ever betting top pair plus and busted flush and str8 draws our equity is 49.3 according stoxev
Pretty sure that is more then 35.
Sorry for got about QT/Q6/Q8 suited and off. our equity then drops to 43 percent |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 3:37am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 10 Aug 2007
Posts: 3386
WPP: 82
Location: the ether
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not c-betting the flop is pretty bad.
if it's a mis-click then you probably shouldn't even be posting the hand.
calling this river would be really bad. Villain limp-called pre. Suited hands in his l-c range are dominated by Axs hands. You hold Ad so he can't have Adxd, so there are not very many flush draws in his range.
making river calls like this is a good way to stay a 2nl-er-for-life.
also curious about a couple more things:
1 - multi-tabling. How many tables? this is fine, so long as you aren't making misclick mistakes left right and centre
2 - stack size. What's your game here? are you a 65bb player? 100bb player? something else? i'm curious. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 5:13am Post subject:
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One Pair
Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Posts: 21
WPP: 39
Location: Boston
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| littleogre wrote: | | This is a pretty easy fold. |
Fixed. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 7:18am Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 51
WPP: 82
Location: Istanbul
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So you say the guy is unknown but for whatever reason you know how that particular unknown plays his nut hands and busted draws etc.
| littleogre wrote: | | If we put him on a range AK-a2 suited diamonds |
| littleogre wrote: | | Preflop: Hero is dealt 7 A |
If you want to make this kind of fency moves then at least learn to read the board ffs. How the hell may he hold Axdd while the A is in your hole cards? |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 7:50am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 536
WPP: 129
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| littleogre wrote: | | This is a pretty easy call. |
If you think that, then why post this hand? |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 9:15am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| BennyLaRue wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | This is a pretty easy call. |
If you think that, then why post this hand? |
Simply to start a discussion that reading betting patterns can sometimes turn what may seem to be a bad call into a good call. I have few hands on villain so i just assigned a general 2nl player betting pattern to him. We can pretty much ignore him having floped a set. Your average 2nl player is never going to take villains line with a flopped set. His line is typical of a busted draw. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 1:13pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 10 Aug 2007
Posts: 3386
WPP: 82
Location: the ether
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| littleogre wrote: | | His line is typical of a busted draw. |
list his possible hand combinations. Count them.
e.g. AQ 9x, KdJd, .....
see how good your call looks in this context.
Stop being blinded by results and instead count the combos to see if your play was actually any good.
and answer the questions from my previous post |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 1:42pm Post subject:
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Two Pair
Joined: 31 Mar 2009
Posts: 47
WPP: 123
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Snapping off a bluff with A high with a bad kicker is just bad. OP in order to profitably snap off bluffs, you have to at least be ahead of hands that villain may be turning into a bluff. 2NL players take all kinds of weird lines. Listen to the replies ITT as many of these people are posting from experience. Hell I could take a $50 roll at 2NL and be rolled up for 5NL in like 5 hours tops can you? If you could, you wouldn't be buying in short and you would realize that making hero calls at 2NL is -EV.
How do you have so many posts here and still be so ignorant to what others are saying? Looks to me like you posted this hand looking for approval more than anything. It makes absolutely no sense to post hand, presumably for the purpose to get help/advice, and then go against the entire consensus that says fold, and say no I call cuz I know better than all of you. |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 9:58am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | . This is a pretty easy call. honestly surprised that so many of you say to fold. look at it this way villain is either betting a made hand or busted draw. with the exception of paired Qs what made hands is he betting? |
Dude you are aware that you must have at least 35% equity to make this call break even, right?
Say he pushes with straights, sets, 2pair hands with Q, busted flush draws with Qd and unpaired busted flush draws. Lets count;
Str8s with 97 (12 combos)
Str8s with J9 (16 combos)
Sets (15 combos)
Two Pairs with Q (36 combos)
Busted flush draws width Qd (excluding 2pr ones) (7 combos)
Unpaired busted flush draws (21 combos)
He pushes total 107 combos. 21 / 107 = ~20%
Since 35 > 20, no need to be surprised when people say it is a fold.
By the way,
| littleogre wrote: | | The only AQ i fear is AdQd. |
You are the one who is holding the Ad. So no need to be afraid of AdQd. |
Please remove 66/tt/22 from his range. Honestly i think your range is off because few 2nl players are gonna play a flopped set that way. I think we can also remove a set of queens. Very few people set hunt with QS.
We are coming to different conclusions because you are including hands in his range that frankly i am not including |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 11:21am Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 51
WPP: 82
Location: Istanbul
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| littleogre wrote: | Please remove 66/tt/22 from his range. Honestly i think your range is off because few 2nl players are gonna play a flopped set that way. I think we can also remove a set of queens. Very few people set hunt with QS.
We are coming to different conclusions because you are including hands in his range that frankly i am not including |
OK. Lets form another range then. Since you are the one who is playing against this particular villain, we have to form a range on your reads. But still, I insist that this is a contradiction to your OP where you said the guy is an unknown.
Busted FDs (I made a mistake in my previous post counting these since J9dd and 97dd are str8s now...)
Busted FDs (19 combos)
Pairs
Qxdd one pair hands (7 combos)
2 Pairs (Lets not include the ones he may have before the turn)
QT(9), Q8(9), Q2dd(1), T8(9), 86s(3) (31 combos)
Sets
only 88 as you said (3 combos)
Str8s
J9 (16 combos)
97 (12 combos)
There are 88 combos total... 19/88 = ~21.6 < 35 and this is the tightest range that i can come up with. You still need to drop 34 hands from his made hands for this call to be break even. In other words if you exclude all 2prs and sets from his range (34 combos) this call is still -EV (after rake)...
Actually you don't need to count anything while you play. This situation is soooooo obvious. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 4:00am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | Please remove 66/tt/22 from his range. Honestly i think your range is off because few 2nl players are gonna play a flopped set that way. I think we can also remove a set of queens. Very few people set hunt with QS.
We are coming to different conclusions because you are including hands in his range that frankly i am not including |
OK. Lets form another range then. Since you are the one who is playing against this particular villain, we have to form a range on your reads. But still, I insist that this is a contradiction to your OP where you said the guy is an unknown.
Yes he is unknown but against an unknown i assume they play like the typical 2nl player. i only have a little over 30 k hands at UB 2nl. In those hands i have never seen a villain flop a set and check to the river. So i assumed that this one wasn't doing it either.
Busted FDs (I made a mistake in my previous post counting these since J9dd and 97dd are str8s now...)
Busted FDs (19 combos)
Pairs
Qxdd one pair hands (7 combos)
2 Pairs (Lets not include the ones he may have before the turn)
QT(9), Q8(9), Q2dd(1), T8(9), 86s(3) (31 combos)
Sets
only 88 as you said (3 combos)
Str8s
J9 (16 combos)
97 (12 combos)
There are 88 combos total... 19/88 = ~21.6 < 35 and this is the tightest range that i can come up with. You still need to drop 34 hands from his made hands for this call to be break even. In other words if you exclude all 2prs and sets from his range (34 combos) this call is still -EV (after rake)...
Actually you don't need to count anything while you play. This situation is soooooo obvious. | |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 7:01am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 29 May 2006
Posts: 1892
WPP: 109
Location: surfing in a room
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| You are seriously posting an A high hero call where you were massively multitabling and have zero reads on villians tendencies and frequencies as a hand reading example? |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 7:34am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Have any of you ever heard of a general range? If you have no reads on villain you assume that he plays like most villains at your level. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 7:38am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | Please remove 66/tt/22 from his range. Honestly i think your range is off because few 2nl players are gonna play a flopped set that way. I think we can also remove a set of queens. Very few people set hunt with QS.
We are coming to different conclusions because you are including hands in his range that frankly i am not including |
OK. Lets form another range then. Since you are the one who is playing against this particular villain, we have to form a range on your reads. But still, I insist that this is a contradiction to your OP where you said the guy is an unknown.
Busted FDs (I made a mistake in my previous post counting these since J9dd and 97dd are str8s now...)
Busted FDs (19 combos)
Pairs
Qxdd one pair hands (7 combos)
2 Pairs (Lets not include the ones he may have before the turn)
QT(9), Q8(9), Q2dd(1), T8(9), 86s(3) (31 combos)
Sets
only 88 as you said (3 combos)
Str8s
J9 (16 combos)
97 (12 combos)
There are 88 combos total... 19/88 = ~21.6 < 35 and this is the tightest range that i can come up with. You still need to drop 34 hands from his made hands for this call to be break even. In other words if you exclude all 2prs and sets from his range (34 combos) this call is still -EV (after rake)...
Actually you don't need to count anything while you play. This situation is soooooo obvious. |
I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range and betting pattern. Until they show otherwise i just assume unknowns are typical 2nl players. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 8:51am Post subject:
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One Pair
Joined: 03 Nov 2009
Posts: 18
WPP: 116
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| you have nothing. why would you consider calling? too many people try to make hero moves at small stakes. just wait for a better opportunity. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 10:49am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Posts: 4170
WPP: 77
Location: Dublin
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didnt read any other posts in this thread. as they appear long and are probably fairly crappy for this type of hand.
betting on turn is bad, u shud be looking to go to showdown when flop is checked. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 12:37pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 51
WPP: 82
Location: Istanbul
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| littleogre wrote: | | I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range |
And can you please write down what that range might be? |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 12:43pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Posts: 4170
WPP: 77
Location: Dublin
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| littleogre wrote: | | Have any of you ever heard of a general range? If you have no reads on villain you assume that he plays like most villains at your level. |
damn
btw i copyright the username General Range!! |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 2:48pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 29 May 2006
Posts: 1892
WPP: 109
Location: surfing in a room
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| Da GOAT wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | Have any of you ever heard of a general range? If you have no reads on villain you assume that he plays like most villains at your level. |
damn
btw i copyright the username General Range!! |
haha eventually theres some win itt |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 8:16pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
Posts: 58
WPP: 81
Location: Australia
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| TheBowlBoy wrote: | | Hell I could take a $50 roll at 2NL and be rolled up for 5NL in like 5 hours tops can you? |
I like your posts, but this is meh gay and completely irrelevant. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 8:22pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
Posts: 58
WPP: 81
Location: Australia
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I wish hero was at my table so I could instashove the river with any made hand..
In my experience at 2NL, villian is showing up with something here more often than not. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 11:15am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range |
And can you please write down what that range might be? |
No but i will post a pic from ps later. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 4:45pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 2204
WPP: 81
Location: sigh..nit ring
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 5:38pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Posts: 4170
WPP: 77
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 6:34pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 04 Nov 2007
Posts: 677
WPP: 111
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| I think there is a separate forum for attempted brags. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 8:14pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 05 Jul 2006
Posts: 7005
WPP: 71
Location: Pwnsylvania
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 8:28pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 5681
WPP: 126
Location: Ballarat, Australia
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| I'm so confused as a mod as to what I'm supposed to do with a thread like this... |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 9:54pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 3544
WPP: 101
Location: The Grind
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A few hands that beat you that are in your opponent's range a considerable amount of the time: QdXd, Q2, Q6, Q8, 86, 82. Typical 2nl Villains aren't shoving two diamonds that miss here. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 10:11pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range |
And can you please write down what that range might be? |
Here you go sir
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.304% 58.90% 00.40% 186589011 1273072.50 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 40.696% 40.29% 00.40% 127641084 1273072.50 { 77, KQs, QTs+, Q8s, Q6s, Q2s, J9s+, J7s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, KQo, QTo+, Q8o, Q6o, Q2o, J9o+, J7o, 75o }
When i say range i mean post flop hand ranges. So i put hands in ps that fit into my post flop view of how most 2nl players play . |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 10:24pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 10 Aug 2007
Posts: 3386
WPP: 82
Location: the ether
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| littleogre wrote: | | Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range |
And can you please write down what that range might be? |
Here you go sir
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.304% 58.90% 00.40% 186589011 1273072.50 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 40.696% 40.29% 00.40% 127641084 1273072.50 { 77, KQs, QTs+, Q8s, Q6s, Q2s, J9s+, J7s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, KQo, QTo+, Q8o, Q6o, Q2o, J9o+, J7o, 75o }
When i say range i mean post flop hand ranges. So i put hands in ps that fit into my post flop view of how most 2nl players play . |
lol, you really think that villain can show up with 7c5c here?
you gotta be making this post in jest
limiting the suited combos to the diamond hands - and you are an optimistic 10%. See how dumb the call is now?
729,472 games 6.750 secs 108,069 games/sec
Board: Qh 8d 2s 6d Th
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.578% 10.61% 00.00% 77427 0.00 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 89.422% 89.73% 00.00% 654565 0.00 { 77, AdTd, Ad9d, KQs, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd6d, Jd9d, Jd7d, Td9d, 9d8d, 8c7c, 8d7d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d, 3d2d, KQo, QTo, Q8o, Q6o }
but., meh, you're probably right and everyone else is wrong. Keep calling river shoves with A high, but deposit a bunch of money first, move up to 100nl on FT and pm me your sig. Cheers.
lock thread? |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 10:58pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 3544
WPP: 101
Location: The Grind
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| littleogre wrote: | | Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range |
And can you please write down what that range might be? |
Here you go sir
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.304% 58.90% 00.40% 186589011 1273072.50 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 40.696% 40.29% 00.40% 127641084 1273072.50 { 77, KQs, QTs+, Q8s, Q6s, Q2s, J9s+, J7s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, KQo, QTo+, Q8o, Q6o, Q2o, J9o+, J7o, 75o }
When i say range i mean post flop hand ranges. So i put hands in ps that fit into my post flop view of how most 2nl players play . |
This is what we refer to as an overly optimistic range. If Villains were just shoving the river all the time with whatever hand they had, then you could set up a low SPR preflop, then just check until they bet and call with probably King high or better. But you can't, so welcome to irl. Basically you're saying that he'll never play a set like this but he'll always play 32s like this, both of which aren't quite right. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 11:13pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 96
WPP: 295
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| Over 9000 hand combos in villain's c/c c/c shove range imo |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 11:22pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 3544
WPP: 101
Location: The Grind
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For those interested, us vs any two diamonds:
Board: Th 6d 2s 8d Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.222% 42.22% 00.00% 19 0.00 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 57.778% 57.78% 00.00% 26 0.00 { AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 8d3d, 8d2d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 7d2d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d } |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 11:30pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 04 Nov 2007
Posts: 677
WPP: 111
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 5:28am Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 51
WPP: 82
Location: Istanbul
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| littleogre wrote: |
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.304% 58.90% 00.40% 186589011 1273072.50 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 40.696% 40.29% 00.40% 127641084 1273072.50 { 77, KQs, QTs+, Q8s, Q6s, Q2s, J9s+, J7s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, KQo, QTo+, Q8o, Q6o, Q2o, J9o+, J7o, 75o }
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So this is the range your avarage 2NL villain shoves this river, right? OK... But please don't forget the write the board cards while stoving...
Board: Th 6d 2s 8d Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.022% 23.02% 00.00% 32 0.00 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 76.978% 76.98% 00.00% 107 0.00 { 77, KQs, QTs+, Q8s, Q6s, Q2s, J9s+, J7s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, KQo, QTo+, Q8o, Q6o, Q2o, J9o+, J7o, 75o } |
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 5:42am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Posts: 4170
WPP: 77
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 8:03am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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| littleogre wrote: | | Belt wrote: | | littleogre wrote: | | I'm not playing against his range i'm playing against the average 2nl range |
And can you please write down what that range might be? |
Here you go sir
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.304% 58.90% 00.40% 186589011 1273072.50 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 40.696% 40.29% 00.40% 127641084 1273072.50 { 77, KQs, QTs+, Q8s, Q6s, Q2s, J9s+, J7s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, KQo, QTo+, Q8o, Q6o, Q2o, J9o+, J7o, 75o }
When i say range i mean post flop hand ranges. So i put hands in ps that fit into my post flop view of how most 2nl players play . |
Ok my ps kept crashing and i forgot to include the board cards. So i'm sure a bunch of people are flaming me for not including them. I will re post later. |
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 10:15am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 952
WPP: 70
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ok since we can't agree on ranges i ran a few test useing stoxev. Frankly a superior product to ps. I cost like $80 though. So i only have the free version works the same but limits the tree size.
We will be adding suited connectors to all ranges. If we say vill flat calls raises 10 percent of the time, Then add the stip that he is only betting atleast top pair or busted flush and str8 draws the call is -.14. Now lets see what happens if we remove AA and KK. The call becomes -.10. Now lets say villain is never or rarely playing a set this way then our ev jumps to +.7. We don't need to worry about flopped 2 pair because a 10 percent cpfr player is never going to flop 2 pair in this spot
I will plug in different ranges later because as villain becomes looser well that makes more queens that can beat us |
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Posted: Fri, 06 Nov 2009, 10:30am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Posts: 4170
WPP: 77
Location: Dublin
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| surely your system will prove that you can call down A high in any spot |
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FTR $200 Freeroll at Bet365Poker, November 22nd @ 15:00 ET
