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Posted: Wed, 30 Jan 2008, 7:01pm Post subject: 99 on xAx flop |
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Straight
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 206
WPP: 117
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Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9 , 9 .
3 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 3 folds.
Flop: (5.40 SB) A , 5 , 7 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero......
Are we peeling one card then folding unimproved? only the 2 nines are really keeping us in this hand if he keeps betting right?
Just to be sure a cbet is mandatory here right? |
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Posted: Wed, 30 Jan 2008, 7:12pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 711
WPP: 134
Location: UK
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| No reads this is an easy puke-fold. C-bet is mandatory because you don't want to give free cards to KQ, KJ, QJ types of hands. Also if you check it encourages him to bluff with these same hands. He might also be bluffing here but more likely we have two outs and insufficient odds to chase in a small pot. |
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Posted: Wed, 30 Jan 2008, 8:55pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 03 Jul 2005
Posts: 1478
WPP: 79
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| Yeah I let it go. There really aren't any draws that he could be raising here. |
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Posted: Wed, 30 Jan 2008, 9:39pm Post subject: |
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Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Posts: 17621
WPP: 82
Location: Walk the Walk, Flop the Flop.
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| Usually fold, don't rule out other options though if you think he's FoS. |
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Posted: Thu, 31 Jan 2008, 1:36am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 16 Sep 2005
Posts: 759
WPP: 150
Location: Moscow, Idaho
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also, if the villan is a thinking player, sklansky argues that you should call here every once in a while to let him know that you won't be pushed off a hand to a simple raise.
If villan is not a thinking player, toss it and hustle his stack later. |
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Posted: Thu, 31 Jan 2008, 8:28am Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 206
WPP: 117
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| Im trying to identify leaks in my game so heres another question, when is it correct to peel after your cbet is raised? When the pot is larger? When you can pickup a draw on the turn? when the board is more draw heavy as villian could be raising with a draw? |
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Posted: Thu, 31 Jan 2008, 10:38am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 711
WPP: 134
Location: UK
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There's no simple answer to this question. Depends on your reads, board texture, position, number of opponents, your outs if behind, size of pot, etc. Can't really be boiled down to a formula that you could compute in your head in 15 seconds.
Assume we plan to just call down here unless we improve, and assume villian will bet every street if we check to him. We can conclude that if we are behind, we have 2 outs, or about a 8% chance of winning by the river (and maybe gaining an extra BB), and if we are ahead, villian probably has about 5 outs on average, or about a 20% chance of improving to beat us by the river.
This means we stand to lose on average -1.7 BB if we're behind on the flop, and win an average of 3.9 if we're ahead on the flop. So we need to be ahead on the flop 29% of the time to make calling down +EV. Certainly reason enough to do so vs. some opponents, but at this level I wouldn't expect it to be worthwhile vs. typical passive fish whose cold calling range includes any Ace. |
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Posted: Tue, 05 Feb 2008, 5:22pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 20 Aug 2007
Posts: 262
WPP: 104
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| It's best to plan your action prior to c-betting. HU and c-betting you are hoping to fold your opponent on the flop or turn. |
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