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Posted: Sat, 04 Jul 2009, 1:51pm Post subject: $55, interesting turn spot with AK in 3bet pot
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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Villain seems like a fish after seeing the first ~15 hands. Lots of limp/folding, calling raises etc. No hands were shown down tho. What should my plan be for the rest of the hand? I cbet this flop with the intention of 2barreling most blank turns. (<Thoughts on that?)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50+$5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 (t6100)
MP2 (t3230)
CO (t2950)
Button (t2970)
SB (t2900)
Hero (BB) (t2780)
UTG (t3070)
UTG+1 (t3000)
Hero's M: 92.67
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , A
2 folds, MP1 bets t80, MP2 calls t80, 3 folds, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, MP2 calls t220
Flop: (t690) Q , J , 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t450, MP2 calls t450
Turn: (t1590) A (2 players)
Hero ??? |
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Posted: Sat, 04 Jul 2009, 9:47pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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If you were going to barrel on a blank why are we giving up now?
Bet whatever amount you think he'll call (I'd go for $600-$900) and don't fold ever. |
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Posted: Sat, 04 Jul 2009, 10:33pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 04 Jul 2005
Posts: 1763
WPP: 77
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I'd say flat or 3bet larger from the BB if you are going to raise.
As played, a half pot bet looks about right. |
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Posted: Sat, 04 Jul 2009, 11:24pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Posts: 3556
WPP: 112
Location: at your tables, calling your bets
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| baudib wrote: | If you were going to barrel on a blank why are we giving up now?
Bet whatever amount you think he'll call (I'd go for $600-$900) and don't fold ever. |
I don't know man, a lot of hands beat us.
Also your statement "if you were going to barrel on a blank why are we giving up now" doesn't really make sense, because the hands OP thought he could fold out by barreling, are either ahead of us now or are so far behind that they aren't likely to pay us off if we keep betting. |
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Posted: Sat, 04 Jul 2009, 11:41pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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Fair enough -- I was looking at SPR and not the fact that we still have 100 BBs left.
Still this guy seems pretty terrible; I have his range as all broadways, 3 sets, a couple underpairs and T9; we're still pretty far ahead of that range here. |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 12:23am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7971
WPP: 67
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I'd c/c one street or two cheap ones, if he bluffs us out with two shells on this board after calling a 3 b good for him.
FWIW this is a spot where the Winning Poker Tournament guys all seem to cold call pre. I have been experimenting, to me it often feels dirty. |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 3:01am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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I guess its pretty hard to know for sure...but what do you think someones betting range is on the turn, once we check? How is AKo doing against that range?
Mcat pretty much summed up what I was thinking...a lot of hands had me crushed (AJ/AQ/KT) and betting TPTK actually seems too thin.
Meh I don't see the point in cold calling preflop, theres a fish who will call my 3bet with a range I completely crush |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 10:41am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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I'm still for betting the turn here. His range is so wide in these spots I am sure he peels with all broadways so he has a ton of 1 pair + gutshot hands that we destroy. Even if we exclude Ax hands we're beating on the flop we have 55% equity.
You think this range is about right?
Board: Qh Jc 3d Ah
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.057% 50.84% 04.22% 2237 185.50 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 44.943% 40.73% 04.22% 1792 185.50 { QQ-TT, 33, AJs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 12:34pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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| That seems reasonable, but his range for actually calling a turn bet is what we should look at right? |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 5:53pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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| Why can you not go into check/call mode? |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 8:51pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| fjuanl wrote: | | That seems reasonable, but his range for actually calling a turn bet is what we should look at right? |
If he peeled a 450 bet on the flop with KJ, which I think he does, he'll call 600 in a 1590 pot.
I can see the merits of c/c but I feel like we just went ahead here more often than not. Yes there are many hands that have us beat but we have TPTK with a redraw to the nuts in a 3-bet pot against a terrible player.
It's an interesting hand though; I think the street we want to c/c is the flop. |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 9:16pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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Dunno how good my estimates are but I think I'm in pretty bad shape if I check turn and he bets
Board: Qh Jc 3d Ah
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.510% 12.20% 08.31% 220 150.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 79.490% 71.18% 08.31% 1284 150.00 { QQ-JJ, 33, ATs+, KTs, AJo+, KTo }
Ideally I wanted the turn to go check/check and then I bet smallish on blank rivers to get those KQ/QT/KJ type hands to call. Thoughts on check/fold turn?  |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 9:29pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| you're always in rough shape if you put villain on a range of hands that beat you. |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 9:54pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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| you really think hes going to fire out KQ on the turn? |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 10:24pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| Maybe. More importantly, he'd call with KQ/KJ/QT/JT/T9 on the turn. |
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Posted: Tue, 07 Jul 2009, 9:53pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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| baudib wrote: | | Maybe. More importantly, he'd call with KQ/KJ/QT/JT/T9 on the turn. |
how can hero bet the turn and not push the river? Villain may call a bet on the turn with this range but his range for beating/slowplaying us shouldnt be ignored.
This is why I said check/call. The same hands villain calls a turn bet with he is either fireing on the turn or checking behind when checked to. Worse case, hero bets out turn and gets shoved on. Which is pretty spew IMO. |
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Posted: Tue, 07 Jul 2009, 10:07pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7971
WPP: 67
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| Quote: | | Meh I don't see the point in cold calling preflop, theres a fish who will call my 3bet with a range I completely crush |
you're OOP and ended up planning to try and bluff said fish twice, and you are in that boat 2/3 times you 3 bet. And this is one of the times you hit, although I know it wasn't really the right board. So I think this thread is more or less the spot they are looking to avoid. The question is, can you get back all that lost value (from him not calling the 3 bet) when you both flop TP?
In general their idea seems to be avoid the marginal situations 50+BBs deep, esp against fish or other people they cannot put a reliable read on and esp OOP. There are several spots where they cold call in similar stack size spots with JJ & QQ and one (I think pearl jammer or w/e his name is) IIRC basically states his 3 bet range early deep is KK+. |
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Posted: Tue, 07 Jul 2009, 11:17pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| We have to accept that AKo is just not as profitable OOP. The problem here is preflop+flop play leaves us in a pretty bad position when called. We're putting in 37 BBs and don't want to continue when we hit our hand, we're going to double barrel and put in 1/3 of our stack and fold a lot, and we're rarely getting paid enough when we flop TPTK. |
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Posted: Tue, 07 Jul 2009, 11:41pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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| valid points there, i can see how my logic is a little flawed in terms of planning to 2barrel a fish who probably can't fold. is this a spot thats an auto-3bet in a cash game but maybe an ok flat in a donkament? or is the fact that I'm OOP too much of a problem? |
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Posted: Tue, 07 Jul 2009, 11:59pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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I think you have to either decide that you're going to stack off on some scary boards when you hit or slow down on the flop or turn when you miss.
Good thread...we don't talk much about turn/river play here and AK is always a tricky hand postflop. |
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Posted: Wed, 08 Jul 2009, 12:25am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7971
WPP: 67
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| Before I read the book I would say I 3 bet here with AK 90% of the time or more. And I swear since I read it (~6 months ago?) I've had about 3 chances to try the flat and all three I just c/f the flop. But I have been thinking about it a lot. I don't play cash NLHE so I can't really comment except to say that conserving chips/place in the tourney def figures into their reasoning |
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Posted: Wed, 08 Jul 2009, 2:04am Post subject:
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i rarely, if ever, get pms
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 4320
WPP: 178
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pj is a known nit so he would definitely call here. From my conversations with Rizen I can see him smooth calling here as well but only because he is OOP. PJ would call even if he was the button here, whereas Rizen would 3-bet.
I really don't think you can play this hand wrong, but you do get in lots of ugly spots post flop so just calling pre can't be bad. |
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