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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 1:12pm Post subject: 3/6 - KJ flops top two on flush board - 180bb deep |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 2983
WPP: 80
Location: calling
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Villain is a 25/19/3. We don't have much history but he's a frequent 3bettor.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 5 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1451.30
Hero: $1191
Button: $1046.70
SB: $1563.15
BB: $1017.85
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K  J 
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21, Button calls, 2 folds.
Flop: J  K T ($51, 2 players)
Hero bets $45, Button raises to $150, Hero... |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 1:32pm Post subject: |
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One Pair
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 527
WPP: 109
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You really manage to get yourself in tricky spots zook, but I don't think you can make a huge mistake here.
I probably think fold because there is almost no hand that you dominate (except KT, JT no diamond) and you won't like your hand unless you hit one of the four kings or jacks left. I would estimate your equity at very close to 50% here though which is why folding is a bit weak. Interested to hear other thoughts... |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 2:28pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Posts: 2514
WPP: 68
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i think it's a fold and agree with P4s.
Even if you boat up you probably won't stack him. |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 3:09pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 4974
WPP: 73
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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| its a fold and i check flop |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 3:11pm Post subject: |
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EAT BUGS
Joined: 07 Dec 2004
Posts: 7761
WPP: 50
Location: trying to live
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| no way im folding to just one raise |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 5:49pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 2983
WPP: 80
Location: calling
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| gabe wrote: | | no way im folding to just one raise |
me neither. what's the plan for a blank turn? |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 7:14pm Post subject: |
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One Pair
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 527
WPP: 109
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| gabe wrote: | | no way im folding to just one raise |
Of course not, but your turn and river skills can make a call +EV for you, even when it might be -EV for most others. This is the same thing as calling a reraise with small PP's OOP preflop: it can be a good play for you, but a loosing play for most others.
I do think this is a close one though, and if villains stats were any less optimal I would certainly feel a lot better about calling here. |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 7:20pm Post subject: |
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One Pair
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 527
WPP: 109
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| zook wrote: | | gabe wrote: | | no way im folding to just one raise |
me neither. what's the plan for a blank turn? |
c/r all in. |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 7:24pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 4974
WPP: 73
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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| ok to rephrase, i hate betting flop in the first place if u aren't calling a raise. I think its best to polarize your betting range on this flop so you aren't exploited as much. |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 9:16pm Post subject: |
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EAT BUGS
Joined: 07 Dec 2004
Posts: 7761
WPP: 50
Location: trying to live
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good post renton. im gonna spend some time thinking about that i think.
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right? |
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Posted: Tue, 06 May 2008, 10:27pm Post subject: |
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One Pair
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 527
WPP: 109
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| gabe wrote: |
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right? |
I don't see how. |
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Posted: Wed, 07 May 2008, 9:38am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Posts: 2514
WPP: 68
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| gabe wrote: |
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right? |
I don't think it makes much sense for this situation, since he's probably pushing the same range that he's betting on the turn. |
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Posted: Wed, 07 May 2008, 9:42am Post subject: |
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pwns WCOOP
Joined: 29 Oct 2004
Posts: 5825
WPP: 73
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| gabe wrote: | good post renton. im gonna spend some time thinking about that i think.
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right? |
Isn't that pretty much a bluff.
I'm a nit but I'd probably fold and I think betting the flop is the best move, but checking aint bad either. |
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Posted: Wed, 07 May 2008, 3:33pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 1914
WPP: 54
Location: Dizzy
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id usually call and check/eval and am pretty sure thats right and checking flop is bad
this deep we quantify the "mistake" of calling (even if hes never bluffing) as pretty small, but the mistake of folding when he has a hand like KT is pretty large. |
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Posted: Wed, 07 May 2008, 4:23pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 3062
WPP: 88
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-what are we continuing with on this flop
-does he know this
-does he think you ever start by checking this flop
-so what does that do to his bluffing frequency |
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Posted: Wed, 07 May 2008, 10:29pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 1040
WPP: 78
Location: Montreal
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im pretty much never folding this flop but calling and re-eval...
3bet flop seems pretty bad no? he's prob shoving ROYAL gutshot FD zomg |
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Posted: Wed, 07 May 2008, 11:02pm Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 4974
WPP: 73
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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| sauce123 wrote: | | this deep we quantify the "mistake" of calling (even if hes never bluffing) as pretty small |
if we are calling 105 to fold or incorrectly stack off on a ton of turns thats a huge mistake no?
Also KT (and other hands we dominate) are a minuscule part of his range compared to hands like AdX 9d9 etc that have excellent equity vs us, not to mention made hands that have us raped.
I think u need to be intimately aware of his range and his bluffing frequency here in order to come out ahead, and you are never gonna be aware of these things in a spot like this that doesn't come up all that often, without a ton of history. |
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Posted: Thu, 08 May 2008, 12:09am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 1914
WPP: 54
Location: Dizzy
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| renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui |
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Posted: Thu, 08 May 2008, 10:22am Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 4974
WPP: 73
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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| sauce123 wrote: | | renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui |
so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105? |
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Posted: Mon, 12 May 2008, 10:00pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2180
WPP: 80
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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| Renton wrote: | | sauce123 wrote: | | renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui |
so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105? |
Villain should have a high bluff % in this spot if he's any good + respects you.
nb: Do we need to have a 3b/f range here? Let's say 380/fold.. |
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Posted: Tue, 13 May 2008, 2:48am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 3062
WPP: 88
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| johnny_fish wrote: | | Renton wrote: | | sauce123 wrote: | | renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui |
so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105? |
Villain should have a high bluff % in this spot if he's any good + respects you.
nb: Do we need to have a 3b/f range here? Let's say 380/fold.. | i m pretty sure hands we are 3-bet folding should be very very polarized unless we think villain will never ever semi-bluff shove with the bare Ad |
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