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Posted: Tue, 27 Oct 2009, 5:28am Post subject: $12/180: 99 flops an overpair after preflop raise
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Straight Flush
Joined: 07 Jul 2005
Posts: 9472
WPP: 127
Location: Sydney
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No real reads on any of these guys, except that I think the guy who shoved over on the flop had stats of something like 20/13. What's your move?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t5450)
CO (t2945)
Button (t1325)
SB (t280)
BB (t2865)
UTG (t1425)
Hero (UTG+1) (t2175)
MP1 (t2255)
Hero's M: 29.00
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9 , 9
1 fold, Hero bets t150, MP1 calls t150, MP2 calls t150, 3 folds, BB calls t100
Flop: (t625) 3 , 7, 7 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t5300 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ???? |
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Posted: Tue, 27 Oct 2009, 6:40am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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He shouldn't have too many 7s in his range, although he is a big stack, so he could show up with 87/76 here...Still, he has a PP and doesn't think you have one or has something like AdQd most of the time.
If we assume he would have 3-bet with QQ pre and that he wouldn't shove 33 or quads, I have you around 40%-43% against his range so it looks like a call, but close. |
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Posted: Tue, 27 Oct 2009, 9:22am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7971
WPP: 67
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Posted: Tue, 27 Oct 2009, 8:06pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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Ill play devils advocate and say fold. It would also be really tough but I think I would check this flop. I think villain would rarely/if ever do this with 55.
Hand 0: 38.263% { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 61.737% { AdAs, AhAs, JJ-TT, 9c9d, 88, 7c7h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 33, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s }
edit: removed AKd-AQd from villains range as these are almost never there. |
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Posted: Wed, 28 Oct 2009, 1:00pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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| Its a call with that range. His pot odds are 1.87/1 so he only needs 35% |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Oct 2009, 3:25pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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(25+50+150+150+150+100+400+1625)=2650/1625=1.63
I keep getting 38% which could still be a call but I fold a lot of even EV spots. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Oct 2009, 4:10pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 2095
WPP: 101
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Hero has 2025 left on flop and 1625 after cbetting.
Pot would be 625+400+2025 = 3050
3050/1625 = 1.87/1 |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Oct 2009, 4:18pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| Iris, once again I find your ranges for villain to be odd...why do you have AA there but not QQ-KK? I find all three to be unlikely. Why wouldn't he have AK or AQ diamonds? |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Oct 2009, 7:20pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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As usual fjuanl is right and I cant count...
People are more likely to slow play AA than KK-QQ by a pretty big margin (same with AK-AQ). It is unlikely that all 3 pairs show up here which is why I only included 2 instances of AA. I took out AK-AQd because no one is playing either of those like this. |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Oct 2009, 7:22pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 1:38pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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AK, AQ, KK, QQ aren't "slow play for value" hands for your average $12 180 player. These would certainly raise pf I would have to say 100% of the time at this level. Psychologically AA is more of a slow play for weak players but even including AA 33% of the time like this seems a bit much for villain.
And actually even with this board texture I would be weighted more to over pairs, and 7x. If villain is shoving with 2 overs+FD we are concluding that villain knows how to semi-bluff which means he is at least aware. Tai didn't give any indication that villain was particularly good. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Oct 2009, 7:31pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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so they would raise AdJd but not AdKd?
are you leveling yourself? |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 11:20pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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| baudib wrote: | so they would raise AdJd but not AdKd?
are you leveling yourself? |
They didnt raise? Villain flatted pf. |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 1:56am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| they called a raise from an EP raiser. |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 9:35pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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| right but villains generally don't understand flat calling with a big pairs to disguise at this level. Which is why I took out AK, AQ, KK, QQ pf as those hands are almost 3betting tai pre. I still see a lot of villains slowplay AA in multiway pots which is why I included it in the range 33%. |
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Posted: Mon, 02 Nov 2009, 9:55pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| no one put KK/QQ in his range. Plenty of people limp or flat raises with AK/AQ all the time. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 12:02am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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| baudib wrote: | | no one put KK/QQ in his range. |
| baudib wrote: | | why do you have AA there but not QQ-KK? |
From what I have seen AK-AQ is not in a lot of peoples flat calling range pf. Not saying it doesn't happen but from my observations it happens rarely enough to where I didn't think it needed to be added. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 12:11am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 1820
WPP: 67
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| i'm just trying to figure out your logic, i'm struggling with it. i don't have any pairs above JJ in his range. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 1:54pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 20 Jul 2008
Posts: 922
WPP: 114
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| Idk how else to say villains will slow play AA some % of the time but rarely with KK-QQ. Its more their psychology and not my logic. |
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Posted: Fri, 13 Nov 2009, 4:43pm Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 233
WPP: 125
Location: B.C. Canada
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| revolvingiris wrote: | | baudib wrote: | | no one put KK/QQ in his range. |
| baudib wrote: | | why do you have AA there but not QQ-KK? |
From what I have seen AK-AQ is not in a lot of peoples flat calling range pf. Not saying it doesn't happen but from my observations it happens rarely enough to where I didn't think it needed to be added. |
In early levels to an EP raise you don't see alot of players flatting w AK AQ?? I see it all the time.
Post-flop looks like AdQd in a big way to me. |
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Posted: Sat, 21 Nov 2009, 2:27am Post subject:
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High Card
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 13
WPP: 57
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| if i lead into this pot i dont see my self folding. |
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FTR $200 Freeroll at ChiliPoker, November 22nd 14:00 ET
