1/2 - top two c/r'ed 200bb deep

Villain is a reg running 25/20/3 over a bunch of hands. He's a big loser in my sample but I don't think of him being that bad. My only notes is that he will call my 3bets light ip and doesn't give my cbets much credit. He c/r's flop 9%.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP) ($771.95)
Button ($277.35)
SB ($400)
BB ($397.80)
UTG ($740.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q

, 10

1 fold, Hero bets $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($16.50) 10

, Q

, 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $34

Turn: ($112.50) 8

(2 players)
BB bets $83, Hero...

Turn isn't too great, I'm probably always seeing a river and re-evaluating.

With his stats isnt J9s (or J9) pretty much always going to be a 3bet or fold preflop? This turn doesnt look all that scary to me.

With any 9, J, A, Spade

being a scarecard to both us and villain, wouldnt it be better to just ship it now? Stack sizes are kinda big but not outrageously so.

Since he can barrel with impunity like every card above a 6 that doesnt pair the board, I think I 3bet the flop to something tiny like 105-110ish (I personally would probably CiB) and expect him to jam a ton of shit we're ahead of.

Your only options are, shove turn, or call turn then call any non spade river. 3betting the flop is bad because you never get it in against worse, you only ever get it in crushed by a set or flipping to a hand like KJss.

If you don't think he's capable of having hands like 89dd or AJdd or any other related gutters w/out flush draws and will shove them on the river, then it's likely much better to just shove the turn.

I dont see how fast playing top 2 on this board is bad.

High Variance? Yes

Bad? No

I would say 3bet/calling 44 on the flop is quote unquote bad

He's taken away your initative and can apply annoying amounts of pressure 200BB deep. I do see merit in using this oppurtunity to bluff catch but against a good player it's going to be a loong bumpy road to showdown and there is just gobs of turns and rivers he can barrel and make us fold since he can rep like every goddamn gutshot, open ender and FD and we're going to get put in EXTREEEEMELY shitty spots.

On top of that, I almost guarantee if he's capable of c/r KQ/QJ type hands for value/protection he's jamming them over a 3bet and we have him nailed to the wall in those spots.

66 is the only set he can really have and I'm not a big fan of folding 2 over pairs when there's 3 combos of a better hand he can have and even that is a pretty small part of his range on this board.

I mean, if you get shoved on preflop 200BB deep (playing live in a game you're rolled for obv) while you have QQ and he flips AKs accidentally and you see, do you fold because you're flipping or stick it in?

I just don't think you always have to have 90% of the pot equity to put all your money in.

I'm not a "grinder" and don't play to pay bills so I'm more prone to get in these high variance spots and push a 3ish% (<-- made up number, dont hold me to it) edge deepstacked. So, I'm not handing out advice and saying "this is wrong and this is right"...just what I would personally do here.

The variance train to valueville pulled into the station and I'm jumping on it hobo style on this flop and just hope it takes me in the right direction.

**Side Note: He's a good player but a big loser so he probably runs like AIDS and his draw won't get there or you'll bink the nuts. JAJAJAJA

If I think he'll 3-bet all pairs pre, then I don't think 3b/shipping the flop is all that bad because his range is a lot of draws right there.
But against a relative unknown it's pretty gay, and I think I just call there too, and call the turn.

What I like to do there is to suck out against J9. Pro play imo.

i dunno i think 3-betting the flop/getting it in is fine, especially if we're going to freak out over this turn card (a good one imo). I think all options except fold are fine on the turn though, raise/call or just call and then call a non a/9/spade river i guess - I suppose the value in not getting it in on the flop is that if a scare card comes (one of cards previously mentioned) sometimes you check it down vs his 66? Interesting hand for sure.

You don't win money at poker by getting your money in as a very marginal favorite. Sorry, maybe you win a couple dollars.

However, you do lose a lot of money getting it in really bad.

You're undervaluing how important it is that we have position here.

don't you think that villain is folding to a 3-bet here sometimes? his range seems pretty wide to me - lots of bare straight draws, bare flush draws as well as 666 and the combo draws not to mention pure air sometimes. That Combined with the fact we're usually a bit ahead here when we do get it in makes this +ev, which does win us quite a few dollars Smile

Taking down, what, 35 BBs? on the flop is nothing to sneeze at either.

but i do agree that calling the flop has lots of merit here for the reasons mentioned above.

Ok. I called and he instashoved the river spade. Easy fold? My take on the timing is that it makes J9 and 66 less likely, leaving him with flushes and air. But those weren't much of his range anyway imo.

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q

, 10

1 fold, Hero bets $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($16.50) 10

, Q

, 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $34

Turn: ($112.50) 8

(2 players)
BB bets $83, Hero calls $83

River: ($278.50) 4

(2 players)
BB bets $259.50 (All-In), Hero... (covers)

I think you played it well and I would fold the river.

river is tough...as you said it's pretty polarized between the nuts and kj but i guess it's a fold.

Rivers probably a fold, but as far as timing goes, wouldn't he be more likely to spend a small amount of time thinking about his best line if he hit his flush?

if you 3ball the flop he could easily call with a draw, its very unlikely you're beat with no straights and flushes possibly. i really feel like calling the flop here is quite bad.

weeeeee

even Redgrape the nit agrees with me

so max do you raise here?

PokerStars Game #35153039682: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4 USD) - 2009/11/09 23:07:58 ET
Table 'Lilofee' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: hook2120 ($412.50 in chips)
Seat 2: CylusBallin ($661.70 in chips)
Seat 3: gp333 ($717.90 in chips)
Seat 4: OddsAgainstU ($477.10 in chips)
Seat 5: FrAnWaN ($557.50 in chips)
Seat 6: z8eldred ($604.70 in chips)
OddsAgainstU: posts small blind $2
FrAnWaN: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CylusBallin [8d Ad]
z8eldred: folds
hook2120: folds
CylusBallin: raises $8 to $12
gp333: folds
OddsAgainstU: calls $10
FrAnWaN: folds
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h 9c]
OddsAgainstU: checks
CylusBallin: bets $20
OddsAgainstU: raises $39.90 to $59.90
CylusBallin: ....

I agree with Max i'd threebet the flop. I think most of the time he raises the flop its a good enough draw that hes not going to want to fold to a 3bet and he may think there's enough FE to shove anyways.

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Short-Handed NL Hold'em

1/2 - top two c/r'ed 200bb deep

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Short-Handed NL Hold'em

1/2 - top two c/r'ed 200bb deep